HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the most well-known political groupsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk), for the last round of this year, the latest popularity ratings of the most well-known political groups. Figures registered before the District Council Election and their development during this year are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates below 50% are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

Findings revealed that, right before the District Council Election, the top 2 on the list of the most well-known political groups were Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) and Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (CTU), attaining 50.7 and 50.1 marks respectively. Liberal Party (LP) and Democratic Party (DP) ranked 3rd and 4th, with support ratings of 49.3 and 49.0 marks respectively. The 5th to 8th ranks fell to Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL), Frontier, Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) and April Fifth Action (AFA), in respective order. Since the bottom 2 political groups failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it was dropped from the list (please refer to the explanations in the subsequent paragraph as well as under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page). The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 49.4 marks, which was fairly similar to that registered in mid-August. On a macro level, regarding the ratings of the most well-known political groups, CTU has been standing stable at the forefront on the list throughout the year, while LP has leapt to top 3 after its Party Chairman James Tien resigned from his post as member of the Executive Council. DP ranked somewhere in the middle with stable performance. On the other hand, the rating of DAB has significantly dropped after the July 1 Demonstration, losing 7.3 marks in terms of its half-yearly averages.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following analysis: "Combined with the results of the District Council Election, the figures show that DAB and AFA indeed had negative effects on their candidates' image, while FTU and CTU may have slight positive effects. Since most of the political groups have ratings below 50, their images are all negative. During the election, people's choice might well have been based on whom they disliked less, rather than whom they liked more."

The research design of our "Most well-known political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted between November 3-6. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP), Liberal Party (LP), Frontier and Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups were then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted between November 15-18, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. Finally, any group which failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate was also dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998.

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be December 9, 2003, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest figures on the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.