HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack
Press Release on September 12, 2017
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam ) | Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |
Special Announcements
1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, mobile numbers are also added to the sampling frame. Since it takes time to conduct further testing, the figures released today by The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong are only based on the landline sample. The results of the mixed sample will be released after further testing is completed. Meanwhile, POP today started to use “effective response rate” to report the survey’s contact information, in order to increase the compatibility of both survey modes. As for the weighting method, the latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and the economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census.
2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the fifth CE rating survey of Carrie Lam after she took office. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 807 Hong Kong people between 1 and 6 September, 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has slightly decreased by 1.2 marks to 59.0. Her latest approval rate is 50%, disapproval rate 35%, giving a net popularity of positive 15 percentage points, which did not change much over the past two weeks. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 55.4 marks. His approval rate is 32%, disapproval rate 11%, giving a net popularity of positive 21 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 42.7 marks, approval rate 21%, disapproval rate 38%, thus a net popularity of negative 17 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 46.4 marks, approval rate 31%, disapproval rate 33%, the net popularity has plunged 18 percentage points to negative 3 percentage points, perhaps related to recent events including the sentence review and jailing of some activists. In terms of popularity rating and net approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rate of 6 among 13 Directors have gone up, while 6 have gone down and 1 remains unchanged. Among them, only Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah register significant changes in their net approval rates, up by 8, 7 and down by 10 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Lau Kong-wah registers negative popularity, at negative 13 percentage points. Sophia Chan is currently the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 41 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Lau Kong-wah and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Law Chi-kwong, Joshua Law, Edward Yau, John Lee, Matthew Cheung, Frank Chan, Kevin Yeung, Michael Wong, Nicholas Yang, James Lau and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. No one falls into the category of “depressing” or “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-5 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 50%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 807 successful interviews, not 807 x 49.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-5%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity status is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and the economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey excluding the 203 testing samples using mobile numbers:
|
Date of survey |
Effective sample size |
Effective response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
1-6/9/2017 |
807 |
49.8% |
+/-4% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
|
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[7] (maximum values) |
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[7] (maximum values) |
|
1,300 |
+/- 2.8% |
1,350 |
+/- 2.7% |
|
1,200 |
+/- 2.9% |
1,250 |
+/- 2.8% |
|
1,100 |
+/- 3.0% |
1,150 |
+/- 3.0% |
|
1,000 |
+/- 3.2% |
1,050 |
+/- 3.1% |
|
900 |
+/- 3.3% |
950 |
+/- 3.2% |
|
800 |
+/- 3.5% |
850 |
+/- 3.4% |
|
700 |
+/- 3.8% |
750 |
+/- 3.7% |
|
600 |
+/- 4.1% |
650 |
+/- 3.9% |
|
500 |
+/- 4.5% |
550 |
+/- 4.3% |
|
400 |
+/- 5.0% |
450 |
+/- 4.7% |
[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
19-22/6/17 |
3-6/7/17 |
17-20/7/17 |
2-7/8/17 |
16-21/8/17 |
1-6/9/17 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
1,007 |
832 |
817 |
817 |
811 |
807 |
-- |
|
Response rate* |
71.2% |
71.5% |
71.6% |
70.9% |
72.0% |
49.8% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error [8] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam |
52.2[9] |
63.7[9] |
58.5[9] |
59.0 |
60.2 |
59.0+/-1.8 |
-1.2 |
|
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
45%[9] |
52%[9] |
50% |
52% |
51% |
50+/-4% |
-1% |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
41% |
34%[9] |
35% |
37% |
37% |
35+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Net approval rate |
4% |
19%[9] |
15% |
15% |
14% |
15+/-6% |
+1% |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter, “effective response rate” was used.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
|
Date of survey |
3-6/4/17 |
8-11/5/17 |
5-8/6/17 |
3-6/7/17 |
2-7/8/17 |
1-6/9/17 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base[10] |
571-601 |
542-624 |
633-668 |
484-557 |
613-638 |
551-593 |
-- |
|
Response rate* |
73.1% |
72.1% |
69.4% |
71.5% |
70.9% |
49.8% |
-- |
|
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [11] |
-- |
|
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung |
51.3 |
55.3[12] |
49.3[12] |
57.6[12] |
56.2 |
55.4+/-2.0 |
-0.8 |
|
Vote of confidence in
|
31% |
35% |
26%[12] |
39%[12] |
37% |
32+/-4% |
-5% [12] |
|
Vote of no confidence in
|
17% |
18% |
18% |
18% |
16% |
11+/-3% |
-5% [12] |
|
Net approval rate |
14% |
17% |
8%[12] |
21%[12] |
21% |
21+/-5% |
-- |
|
Rating of FS Paul Chan |
37.2 |
39.7[12] |
34.1[12] |
40.5[12] |
41.2 |
42.7+/-2.2 |
+1.5 |
|
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan |
16%[12] |
21%[12] |
18% |
22%[12] |
25% |
21+/-3% |
-4% [12] |
|
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan |
49%[12] |
49% |
48% |
41%[12] |
44% |
38+/-4% |
-6% [12] |
|
Net approval rate |
-33%[12] |
-27% |
-30% |
-19%[12] |
-19% |
-17+/-6% |
+2% |
|
Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen |
47.3[12] |
47.3 |
46.6 |
52.8[12] |
50.9 |
46.4+/-2.5 |
-4.5 [12] |
|
Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
30% |
27% |
30% |
37%[12] |
38% |
31+/-4% |
-7% [12] |
|
Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
30% |
32% |
30% |
23%[12] |
23% |
33+/-4% |
+10% [12] |
|
Net approval rate |
-1% |
-5% |
-1% |
14%[12] |
15% |
-3+/-7% |
-18% [12] |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter, “effective response rate” was used.
[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:
|
Date of survey |
3-6/7/17 |
2-7/8/17 |
1-6/9/17 |
Latest change |
|||
|
Sample base [13] |
491-544 |
457-522 |
431-526 |
-- |
|||
|
Response rate* |
71.5% |
70.9% |
49.8% |
-- |
|||
|
Sample base for each question /
|
Base |
% |
Base |
% |
Base |
% &
|
-- |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan |
517 |
42% |
496 |
40% |
491 |
46+/-5% |
+6%[15] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan |
517 |
3% |
496 |
7%[15] |
491 |
5+/-2% |
-2% |
|
Net approval rate |
517 |
38% |
496 |
34% |
491 |
41+/-5% |
+7%[15] |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong |
544 |
52% |
495 |
34%[15] |
483 |
41+/-5% |
+7%[15] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong |
544 |
8% |
495 |
10% |
483 |
9+/-3% |
-1% |
|
Net approval rate |
544 |
44% |
495 |
24%[15] [17] |
483 |
32+/-6%[19] |
+8%[15] |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law |
524 |
43% |
511 |
39% |
485 |
39+/-5% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law |
524 |
8% |
511 |
5%[15] |
485 |
7+/-2% |
+2% |
|
Net approval rate |
524 |
35% |
511 |
33% |
485 |
32+/-6%[19] |
-1% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau |
517 |
48% |
479 |
42%[15] |
493 |
39+/-4% |
-3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau |
517 |
7% |
479 |
7% |
493 |
7+/-2% |
-- |
|
Net approval rate |
517 |
41% |
479 |
35% |
493 |
32+/-6%[19] |
-3% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee |
494 |
34% |
522 |
31% |
454 |
34+/-5% |
+3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee |
494 |
7% |
522 |
9% |
454 |
10+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate |
494 |
28%[16] |
522 |
22%[15] |
454 |
24+/-6% |
+2% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
491 |
45%[15] |
457 |
41% |
526 |
38+/-4% |
-3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
491 |
17% |
457 |
18% |
526 |
19+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate |
491 |
28%[15] [16] |
457 |
24%[17] |
526 |
20+/-6% |
-4% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau |
499 |
24% |
484 |
23% |
431 |
23+/-4% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau |
499 |
6% |
484 |
7% |
431 |
4+/-2% |
-3%[15] |
|
Net approval rate |
499 |
19% |
484 |
16% |
431 |
18+/-5%[20] |
+2% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan |
492 |
25% |
458 |
30%[15] |
449 |
29+/-4% |
-1% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan |
492 |
6% |
458 |
12%[15] |
449 |
10+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Net approval rate |
492 |
18% |
458 |
18% |
449 |
18+/-6%[20] |
-- |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong |
502 |
28% |
489 |
23%[15] |
470 |
27+/-4% |
+4% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong |
502 |
8% |
489 |
7% |
470 |
10+/-3% |
+3% |
|
Net approval rate |
502 |
20% |
489 |
15%[18] |
470 |
16+/-6% |
+1% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung |
531 |
30% |
480 |
33% |
455 |
27+/-4% |
-6%[15] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung |
531 |
9% |
480 |
18%[15] |
455 |
15+/-3% |
-3% |
|
Net approval rate |
531 |
21% |
480 |
15%[18] |
455 |
12+/-6% |
-3% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip |
496 |
22% |
482 |
21% |
504 |
21+/-4% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip |
496 |
7% |
482 |
11%[15] |
504 |
9+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Net approval rate |
496 |
15% |
482 |
10% |
504 |
11+/-5% |
+1% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang |
530 |
28%[15] |
478 |
27% |
469 |
23+/-4% |
-4% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang |
530 |
19%[15] |
478 |
20% |
469 |
16+/-3% |
-4%[15] |
|
Net approval rate |
530 |
9%[15] |
478 |
8% |
469 |
7+/-6% |
-1% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah |
508 |
29%[15] |
508 |
31% |
448 |
22+/-4% |
-9%[15] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah |
508 |
39%[15] |
508 |
34%[15] |
448 |
36+/-5% |
+2% |
|
Net approval rate |
508 |
-10%[15] |
508 |
-3% |
448 |
-13+/-7% |
-10%[15] |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter, “effective response rate” was used.
[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-5% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] Based on the figures in early July, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Security John Lee are 27.8 and 27.6 percentage points. Thus, they ranked fifth and sixth.
[17] Based on the figures in early August, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing are 24.4 and 23.7 percentage points. Thus, they ranked fourth and fifth.
[18] Based on the figures in early August, in two decimal places, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Development Michael Wong and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung are 15.34 and 15.28 percentage points. Thus, they ranked ninth and tenth.
[19] Based on the figures of latest survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau are 32.1, 32.0 and 31.6 percentage points. Thus, they ranked second, third and fourth this time.
[20] Based on the figures of latest survey, in two decimal places, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau and Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan are 18.41 and 18.39 percentage points. Thus, they ranked seventh and eighth this time.
The latest survey showed that, CE Carrie Lam scored 59.0 marks, and 50% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is positive 15 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Matthew Cheung, FS Paul Chan and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 55.4, 42.7 and 46.4 marks, and 32%, 21% and 31% would vote for their reappointments correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 21, negative 17 and negative 3 percentage points respectively.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, attaining positive 41 percentage points. The 2nd to 4th places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, with net approval rates of positive 32 percentage points each. Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah ranked 5th to 13th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 24, positive 20, positive 18, positive 18, positive 16, positive 12, positive 11, positive 7 and negative 13 percentage points. In other words, no Director scored a net approval rate of over 50%.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 2 to 7 August, 2017 while this survey was conducted from 1 to 6 September, 2017. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
6/9/17 |
Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor unveils the scheme for local first-time homebuyers. |
|
25/8/17 |
The Court of Final Appeal rejects the application for appeal by Leung Chung-hang and Yau Wai-ching. |
|
21/8/17 |
Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor states that there is no political interference in Hong Kong’s judiciary system. |
|
21/8/17 |
Two-way toll collection takes effect at Lantau Link. |
|
20/8/17 |
Various groups organize protest against jailing of activists. |
|
17/8/17 |
Joshua Wong, Nathan Law and Alex Chow have been sentenced to six to eight months in prison. |
|
16/8/17 |
Democrat Howard Lam is prosecuted of misleading police officer. |
|
3/8/17 |
Joseph Yam Chi-kwong publishes an article titled “Public Finance in Hong Kong” on his blog. |
Online Opinion Analysis
In July 2017, POP started collaborating with uMax Data Technology Limited to conduct “Online Opinion Analysis”. uMax Data would provide technical support concerning social big data to track posts in Facebook pages and various major forums in Hong Kong that mentioned specific political figures or organizations. When public opinion changes very significantly, POP will summarize the popular online posts about the specific political figures or organizations between the two surveys and compile a list of related events. Readers could make their own judgment if the events listed have impact on the related public opinion figures.
Since the latest survey findings reveal that the net approval rate of SJ Rimsky Yuen has changed significantly compared to the figure recorded in the last survey, POP conducted “Online Opinion Analysis” to identify the top ten most discussed issues on the internet. The list of most discussed items after eliminating duplications is as follows:
|
The Department of Justice applied the sentence review for the activists. |
|
Rimsky Yuen denied any political motivation about the sentence review. |
|
The court jailed 13 activists involved in clashes outside the Legislative Council. |
|
The Appeal Court jailed Joshua Wong, Nathan Law, and Alex Chow for six to eight months. |
|
Crowds rally in favour of jailed pro-democracy activists. |
|
The Court of Final Appeal rejected Yau Wai-ching and Leung Chung-hang’s application for appeal. |
The results show that online public opinion had been discussing the opinions of Rimsky Yuen and the court’s decisions to the activists. Whether or not these items could sufficiently explain the changes in SJ Rimsky Yuen’s popularity ratings, readers could form their own judgment.
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.
Our latest survey conducted in early September shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has slightly decreased by 1.2 marks to 59.0. Her latest approval rate is 50%, disapproval rate 35%, giving a net popularity of positive 15 percentage points, which did not change much over the past two weeks.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 55.4 marks. His approval rate is 32%, disapproval rate 11%, giving a net popularity of positive 21 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 42.7 marks, approval rate 21%, disapproval rate 38%, thus a net popularity of negative 17 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 46.4 marks, approval rate 31%, disapproval rate 33%, the net popularity has plunged 18 percentage points to negative 3 percentage points, perhaps related to recent events including the sentence review and jailing of some activists. In terms of popularity rating and net approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rate of 6 among 13 Directors have gone up, while 6 have gone down and 1 remains unchanged. Among them, only Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah register significant changes in their net approval rates, up by 8, 7 and down by 10 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Lau Kong-wah registers negative popularity, at negative 13 percentage points. Sophia Chan is currently the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 41 percentage points.
According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Lau Kong-wah and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Law Chi-kwong, Joshua Law, Edward Yau, John Lee, Matthew Cheung, Frank Chan, Kevin Yeung, Michael Wong, Nicholas Yang, James Lau and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. No one falls into the category of “depressing” or “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:
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“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
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“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
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CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (50%) |
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“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
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Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (46%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (38%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (31%); Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (22%); FS Paul Chan Mo-po (21%) |
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“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
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Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (41%, 49%); Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (39%, 47%)[21]; Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (39%, 46%)[21]; Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (34%, 44%); CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (32%, 43%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (29%, 39%); Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (27%, 42%)[22]; Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (27%, 37%) [22]; Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (23%, 39%) [23]; Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (23%, 27%) [23]; Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (21%, 30%) |
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“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
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“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
[21] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah are 39.3% and 39.0%.
[22] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung and Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun are 27.2% and 26.7%.
[23] In three decimal places, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr are 22.891% and 22.887%.
Future Release (Tentative)
Reference – Technical Notes of “Online Opinion Analysis”
Technically, POP research team firstly determines and inputs related keywords to be searched on the platform provided by uMax Data. POP then selects targeted online platforms to be monitored (currently selected: Facebook and forums), and extract the top five most discussed items on each online platform, thus come up with a list of 10 items in total. By eliminating duplications in the top ten items, POP compiles a table which is included in the press release for readers’ reference.
