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Press Release on August 22, 2017

| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Independence of Taiwan) | (Confidence in Cross-strait Reunification) |
| Detailed Findings ( Opinion on Applicability of "One Country, Two Systems" to Taiwan) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Taiwan's Rejoining the United Nations) | (Opinion on Independence of Tibet) |
| Detailed Findings (Ratings of the Best Telecommunication) |

Special Announcements

1. Along with the 20th anniversary of the establishment of SAR, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong starts to regularly announce the “best corporations” in terms of “corporate social responsibility” ratings from July 2017, highlighting 18 business corporations from six major sectors. Such surveys began in 2008 and cover industries of public transportation, telecommunication, banks and financial services, real estate and property development, retail and fast food restaurants. It aims to gauge the public image of different commercial organizations in order to encourage them to become ethical companies. The rating figures released by POP today on best telecommunication corporations are one of the “Best Corporations” survey series.

2. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, mobile numbers are also added to the sampling frame. Since it takes time to conduct further testing, the figures released today by POP are only based on the landline sample. The results of the mixed sample will be released after further testing is completed. Meanwhile, POP also enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity status is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and the economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census.

3. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of regular rating surveys of current CE Carrie Lam, former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP conducted a two-stage survey in August on the “Best Telecommunication Corporations”, and the results show that the most well-known telecommunication corporation was Hutchison. Results of rating survey, however, show that HKBN has the best CSR reputation in the sector, scoring 58.2 marks, while PCCW and Hutchison followed with 55.2 and 51.7 marks. POP interviewed 565 and 502 Hong Kong people by means of random telephone surveys for the first stage naming survey and second stage rating survey respectively. The sampling errors of rating figures are no greater than +/-1.8 marks at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 73%.

As for the Taiwan and Tibetan issues, POP interviewed 817 Hong Kong people between August 2 and 7, 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people who oppose the independence of Taiwan continue to outnumber those who support it. However, the net support has risen dramatically from negative 36 to negative 17 percentage points, basically back to the level registered a year ago. Meanwhile, people’s net support for Taiwan rejoining the UN stands at positive 11 percentage points. In general, although Hong Kong people object to the independence of Taiwan, they tend to support giving Taiwan more international space. Besides, the net value of those who believed “one country, two systems” should be applicable to Taiwan also drops rapidly from negative 8 to negative 24 percentage points. People continue to be pessimistic about cross-strait reunification, and its net confidence drops to negative 38 percentage points, which is an all-time record low since June 1993. Regarding Tibetan issue, Hong Kong people who oppose the independence of Tibet also outnumber those who support it, with a net support rate of negative 46 percentage points. Further analysis shows that the older the people, the more they oppose Taiwan and Tibet’s independence, while the younger the more pessimistic about cross-strait reunification. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 71%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[3] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Ratings of the Best Telecommunication Corporations

[4] The sample size of the rating survey is 502 successful interviews, not 502 x 73.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[5] The maximum sampling errors of various ratings are not more than +/-1.8. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling errors of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level”.

Taiwan and Tibetan Issues

[6] The sample size of the survey is 817 successful interviews, not 817 x 70.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[7] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8%”.

Latest Figures

I. Ratings of the Best Telecommunication Corporations

In 2008, HKUPOP initiated a tracking survey series on Corporate Social Responsibility, aiming to gauge the public image of different commercial organizations in order to encourage them to become ethical companies and select the best corporations. There are a total of six modules under this survey series, namely, 1) Public Transportation, 2) Telecommunication, 3) Banks and Financial Services, 4) Real Estate and Property Development, 5) Retail, and 6) Fast Food Restaurant. From January to December 2015, the survey was sponsored by Metro Broadcast Corporation Ltd and branded as “Metro CSR Index”. Results were released every month in the website of Metro Radio.

At the beginning, these surveys were conducted once every three months, with two different modules each time. From July 2017, the frequency was changed to once every six months, with one module only for each survey. The surveys were conducted in two stages. In the first stage, respondents were requested to nominate, unprompted, at most 5 corporations that they can think of. POP would then select from this list of unprompted nominees the 3 most frequently cited names for the next stage survey. During the second stage survey, respondents would be asked to rate the CSR performance for each of the shortlisted corporations using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates extremely poor performance, 100 indicates extremely good performance, and 50 means half-half.

From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity status is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and the economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest surveys of the best telecommunication corporations under the Best Corporations series excluding the testing samples using mobile numbers:

[8] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our “Best Corporation” rating survey has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. The corporations being rated in our latest survey were those which obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in August 2017. In the survey, respondents could name up to 5 local telecommunication corporations which they knew best. The top three corporations mentioned most frequently in the sector were: Hutchison, PCCW and HKBN. These corporations then entered into the second stage rating survey conducted in the same month, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed corporations using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates extremely poor performance, 100 indicates extremely good performance, and 50 means half-half.

Recent ratings of the best telecommunication corporations are summarized as follows:

[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Our latest survey showed that HKBN was considered as having the best CSR reputation among local telecommunication corporations, scored 58.2 marks, while PCCW and Hutchison scored 55.2 and 51.7 marks respectively.

II. Taiwan and Tibetan Issues

POP today releases the latest findings on various Taiwan and Tibetan issues. From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity status is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and the economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey excluding the testing samples using mobile numbers:

[11] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

People’s latest views towards various Taiwan and Tibetan issues are summarized below:

[12] These questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 560 to 671, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated.

[13] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8%” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[14] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 50% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas 34% showed support, with net support at negative 17 percentage points. Besides, 46% supported the rejoining the United Nations of Taiwan while 34% opposed, with net support at positive 11 percentage points. As for the applicability of “one country, two systems” to Taiwan, 30% gave a positive view while 54% gave a negative answer, with net value of applicability at negative 24 percentage points. 25% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 63% expressed no confidence, with net confidence at negative 38 percentage points. Regarding Tibetan issues, 62% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Tibet whereas 16% showed support, with net support at negative 46 percentage points.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ view on the Taiwan and Tibet independence issue, and confidence in cross-strait reunification by age:

[15] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.

[16] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.

[17] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from March 1 to 5, 2017, while this survey was conducted from August 2 to 7, 2017. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Commentary

Frank Wai-Kin Lee, Research Manager of POP, observed, “Our ‘Best Corporations’ survey conducted in August shows that the most well-known telecommunication corporation was Hutchison. Results of rating survey, however, show that HKBN has the best CSR reputation in the sector, scoring 58.2 marks, while PCCW and Hutchison followed with 55.2 and 51.7 marks. As for the Taiwan and Tibetan issues, Hong Kong people who oppose the independence of Taiwan continue to outnumber those who support it. However, the net support has risen dramatically from negative 36 to negative 17 percentage points, basically back to the level registered a year ago. Meanwhile, people’s net support for Taiwan rejoining the UN stands at positive 11 percentage points. In general, although Hong Kong people object to the independence of Taiwan, they tend to support giving Taiwan more international space. Besides, the net value of those who believed ‘one country, two systems’ should be applicable to Taiwan also drops rapidly from negative 8 to negative 24 percentage points. People continue to be pessimistic about cross-strait reunification, and its net confidence drops to negative 38 percentage points, which is an all-time record low since June 1993. Regarding Tibetan issue, Hong Kong people who oppose the independence of Tibet also outnumber those who support it, with a net support rate of negative 46 percentage points. Further analysis shows that the older the people, the more they oppose Taiwan and Tibet’s independence, while the younger the more pessimistic about cross-strait reunification. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

August 29, 2017 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government

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Everything carried in this website does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles and messages posted at the opinion platforms. Any responsibility, legal and otherwise, arising from any such item shall vest entirely with its author. The intellectual property of all information contained in this website, including questionnaire design and research reports, originally belongs to HKU POP unless specified otherwise. HKU POP opens their copyright to the world via this website, but would request all users to acknowledge their source properly.

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Last update :  26/6/2019