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Press Release on July 11, 2017

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam ) | Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |

Special Announcements

1. Robert Chung, the Director of Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong, publishes the last article of his series “HKSAR 20th Anniversary Series” in his column “Chung’s Blunt Words” today. Entitled “Hong Kong independence is not a problem”, the article advices Carrie Lam to adopt the attitude of “patience rather than rashness” and “no independence” principle when handling matters concerning Hong Kong independence. The article has been published in his online column “Chung’s Blunt Words” (www.facebook.com/ChungsBluntWords). The copyrights of all articles are open to the world, the media are welcome to re-publish the article in full or in part, early or concurrent publication can also be arranged.

2. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, mobile numbers are also added to the sampling frame. Since it takes time to conduct further testing, the figures released today by POP are only based on the landline sample. The results of the mixed sample will be released after further testing is completed. Meanwhile, POP also enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity status is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and the economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census.

3. In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. In July 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP. A decade later, in July 2017, POP started collaborating with uMax Data Technology Limited to conduct “Online Opinion Analysis”. uMax Data would provide technical support concerning social big data to track posts in Facebook pages and various major forums in Hong Kong that mentioned specific political figures or organizations. When public opinion changes very significantly, POP will summarize the popular online posts about the specific political figures or organizations between the two surveys and compile a list of related events. Readers could make their own judgment if the events listed have impact on the related public opinion figures.

4. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the first CE rating survey of Carrie Lam after she took office. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP interviewed 832 Hong Kong people between 3 and 6 July, 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted after the new cabinet of Carrie Lam has taken office shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has increased dramatically by 11.5 marks to 63.7 as compared to two weeks ago. Her latest approval rate is 52%, disapproval rate 34%, giving a net popularity of positive 19 percentage points, which has also gone up dramatically by 15 percentage point as compared to two weeks ago. Both her popularity rating and net approval rate are at record high since she was elected. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 57.6 marks. His approval rate is 39%, disapproval rate 18%, giving a net popularity of positive 21 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 40.5 marks, approval rate 22%, disapproval rate 41%, thus a net popularity of negative 19 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 52.8 marks, approval rate 37%, disapproval rate 23%, giving a net popularity of positive 14 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating and approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, only 3 of the 13 are re-appointed Directors, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing have all gone up substantively, by 15, 14 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Lau Kong-wah registers negative popularity, at negative 10 percentage points. Law Chi-kwong is currently the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 44 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam and Law Chi-kwong fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Joshua Law, Matthew Cheung, Rimsky Yuen, Lau Kong-wah and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Sophia Chan, John Lee, Kevin Yeung, Nicholas Yang, Michael Wong, Frank Chan, James Lau and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. No one falls into the category of “depressing” or “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-5 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 71%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 832 successful interviews, not 832 x 71.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-5%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and the economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey excluding the 204 testing samples using mobile numbers:

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. (Postscript: Previous survey figures were not weighted by economic activity status, so comparisons were not made using “the same weighting method” as written in the original release, although the results are basically the same.)

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. The survey conducted on 22/2/2017 was the Budget instant survey and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. (Postscript: Previous survey figures were not weighted by economic activity status, so comparisons were not made using “the same weighting method” as written in the original release, although the results are basically the same.)

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-5% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. (Postscript: Previous survey figures were not weighted by economic activity status, so comparisons were not made using “the same weighting method” as written in the original release, although the results are basically the same.)

[16] Based on the figures of latest survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Security John Lee are 27.8 and 27.6 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked fifth and sixth this time.

The latest survey showed that, CE Carrie Lam scored 63.7 marks, and 52% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is positive 19 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Matthew Cheung, FS Paul Chan and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 57.6, 40.5 and 52.8 marks, and 39%, 22% and 37% would vote for their reappointments correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 21, negative 19 and positive 14 percentage points respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, attaining positive 44 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau and Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan with net approval rates of positive 41 and positive 38 percentage points respectively. Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah ranked 4th to 13th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 35, positive 28, positive 28, positive 21, positive 20, positive 19, positive 18, positive 15, positive 9 and negative 10 percentage points. In other words, no Director scored a net approval rate of over 50%.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 5 to 8 June, 2017 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 6 July, 2017. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Online Opinion Analysis

In July 2017, POP started collaborating with uMax Data Technology Limited to conduct “Online Opinion Analysis”. uMax Data would provide technical support concerning social big data to track posts in Facebook pages and various major forums in Hong Kong that mentioned specific political figures or organizations. When public opinion changes very significantly, POP will summarize the popular online posts about the specific political figures or organizations between the two surveys and compile a list of related events. Readers could make their own judgment if the events listed have impact on the related public opinion figures.

Since the latest survey findings reveal that the net approval rate of CE Carrie Lam has changed significantly compared to the figure recorded in the last survey, POP conducted “Online Opinion Analysis” to identify the top ten most discussed issues on the internet. The list of most discussed items after eliminating duplications is as follows:

The results show that online public opinion had been discussing the new cabinets of Carrie Lam, education and land related new policies as well as the measures of reopening the Civic Square. Whether or not these items could sufficiently explain the changes in CE popularity ratings, readers could form their own judgment.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Tai.

Our latest survey conducted after the new cabinet of Carrie Lam has taken office shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has increased dramatically by 11.5 marks to 63.7 as compared to two weeks ago. Her latest approval rate is 52%, disapproval rate 34%, giving a net popularity of positive 19 percentage points, which has also gone up dramatically by 15 percentage point as compared to two weeks ago. Both her popularity rating and net approval rate are at record high since she was elected.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 57.6 marks. His approval rate is 39%, disapproval rate 18%, giving a net popularity of positive 21 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 40.5 marks, approval rate 22%, disapproval rate 41%, thus a net popularity of negative 19 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 52.8 marks, approval rate 37%, disapproval rate 23%, giving a net popularity of positive 14 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating and approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, only 3 of the 13 are re-appointed Directors, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing have all gone up substantively, by 15, 14 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Lau Kong-wah registers negative popularity, at negative 10 percentage points. Law Chi-kwong is currently the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 44 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Carrie Lam and Law Chi-kwong fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Joshua Law, Matthew Cheung, Rimsky Yuen, Lau Kong-wah and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Sophia Chan, John Lee, Kevin Yeung, Nicholas Yang, Michael Wong, Frank Chan, James Lau and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. No one falls into the category of “depressing” or “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:

[17] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of CE Carrie Lam and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong are 52.3% and 51.7%.

[18] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung and Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun are 28.3% and 27.7%.

Future Release (Tentative)

July 18, 2017 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of Top 10 Legislative Councillors

Reference – Technical Notes of “Online Opinion Analysis”

Technically, POP research team firstly determines and inputs related keywords to be searched on the platform provided by uMax Data. POP then selects targeted online platforms to be monitored (currently selected: Facebook and forums), and extract the top five most discussed items on each online platform, thus come up with a list of 10 items in total. By eliminating duplications in the top ten items, POP compiles a table which is included in the press release for readers’ reference.

No. of hits since Jun 3, 2000: 81,051,141

No. of hits since Jan 1, 2018: 189,193

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Everything carried in this website does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles and messages posted at the opinion platforms. Any responsibility, legal and otherwise, arising from any such item shall vest entirely with its author. The intellectual property of all information contained in this website, including questionnaire design and research reports, originally belongs to HKU POP unless specified otherwise. HKU POP opens their copyright to the world via this website, but would request all users to acknowledge their source properly.

HKU POP all rights reserved.

Last update :  26/6/2019