HKU POP releases the latest rankings of political figuresBack
Press Release on May 23, 2017
| Detailed Findings (People's Most Familiar Political Figures) |
Special Announcements
1. Robert Chung, the Director of Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong, continues to publish his article series “Chung’s Blunt Words: HKSAR 20th Anniversary Series” in his online column “Chung’s Blunt Words” ( www.facebook.com/ChungsBluntWords ) today. He mentions that some political figures may have their names and reputation remembered in history, but others may make themselves infamous to posterity. CEs would usually top the list over the past 20 years (see appendix). The copyrights of all articles are open to the world, the media are welcome to re-publish the articles in full or in part, early or concurrent publication can also be arranged.
2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 122 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong people between May 15 and 18 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. According to our latest survey, Leung Chun-ying continues to be the most visible political figure in Hong Kong. Carrie Lam ranks 2nd while Donald Tsang ranks 3rd. Compared to 7 months ago, 8 people remain on the “top 10” list, Wong Yuk-man and Starry Lee who ranked 7th and 9th last time have both fallen out of the list after dropping to the 15th and 13th positions respectively. They are replaced by Martin Lee and Anson Chan who have gone up from the 15th and 14th places to occupy the 9th and 10th places respectively. The ups and downs within the latest list should be good reflections of our changing political environment. If we would like to focus on long term development, we can use the overall rankings accumulated over five years. Figures show that Leung Chun-ying, Leung Kwok-hung, Carrie Lam, Donald Tsang and Regina Ip are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong. The maximum sampling error of percentages of people’s most familiar political figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The response rate of this survey is 71%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey on people’s most familiar political figures, the sample size is 1,000 successful cases, not 1,000 x 71.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the survey results of people’s most familiar political figures. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of survey on people’s most familiar political figures:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
15-18/5/2017 |
1,000 |
71.5% |
+/-3% |
[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
This survey on people’s most familiar political figures has been conducted for many years, with results initially released through our publication POP Express until October 2006 when we began to release them online. Between 1994 and 2005, the survey was conducted and released in the form of “top 10 political figures” using our usual “top 10” or “top 5” series survey design, which involved both naming and rating stages. Starting from October 2005, we simplified our “top 10 political figures” survey by just recording and analyzing the “naming” results, because we have already developed over time numerous rating surveys covering CE, government officials, members of Legislative and Executive Councils, and so on. As for the rating part, we only conduct supplementary rating surveys to cover those listed in the top 10 political figures but not covered in other rating surveys. Take our latest survey as an example, our supplementary rating survey of Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa, John Tsang, Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee and Anson Chan will be conducted later and the results will be uploaded onto our POP Site in due course. Moreover, in our presentation of findings, different from the other “top 10” rating series, we introduced rankings from 1 to 50 for “people’s most familiar political figures”, as well as average accumulative rankings calculated from the past 10 surveys spanning over about five years, in order to indicate the ups-and-downs of these political figures in the long run. Please refer to our POP Site for details. Herewith the result of our latest survey on “people’s most familiar political figures”, other rankings beyond the “Top 10” can be found in the POP Site:
|
Date of survey |
2-5/11/15 |
3-5/5/16 |
24-27/10/16 |
15-18/5/17 |
Average ranking over the past 10 surveys [9] |
||||
|
Sample base |
1,008[8] |
1,000[8] |
1,001[8] |
1,000[8] |
-- |
||||
|
Overall response rate |
66.4% |
69.7% |
72.9% |
71.5% |
-- |
||||
|
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)[7] |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
-- |
||||
|
Latest finding / Rank |
% |
Rank |
% |
Rank |
% |
Rank |
% |
Rank |
-- |
|
Leung Chun-ying |
39% |
1 |
41% |
1 |
35% |
1 |
62%+/-4% |
1 |
1.2 |
|
Carrie Lam |
39% |
2 |
33% |
3 |
24% |
6 |
57%+/-4% |
2 |
4.5 |
|
Donald Tsang |
23% |
4 |
18% |
8 |
17% |
8 |
34%+/-4% |
3 |
5.2 |
|
Tung Chee-hwa |
18% |
9 |
17% |
9 |
15% |
10 |
29%+/-4% |
4 |
7.7 |
|
Leung Kwok-hung |
22% |
5 |
36% |
2 |
30% |
3 |
27%+/-4%[10] |
5 |
3.0 |
|
Regina Ip |
18% |
8 |
21% |
6 |
27% |
5 |
27%+/-4%[10] |
6 |
6.0 |
|
John Tsang |
22% |
6 |
21% |
7 |
32% |
2 |
26%+/-4% |
7 |
10.4 |
|
Jasper Tsang |
24% |
3 |
28% |
4 |
28% |
4 |
22%+/-4% |
8 |
6.5 |
|
Martin Lee |
12% |
15 |
9% |
16 |
9% |
15 |
17%+/-3% |
9 |
14.2 |
|
Anson Chan |
16% |
11 |
11% |
12 |
11% |
14 |
14%+/-3% |
10 |
9.3 |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] The sub-sample size in November 2015 was 650, that in May 2016 was 617, that in October 2016 was 621, and that in May 2017 was 541.
[9] The earliest of the past 10 surveys was conducted during November 20 to 28, 2012. For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.
[10] Based on the latest figures, the percentages of respondents who named Leung Kwok-hung and Regina Ip were 27.2% and 26.9% respectively, so Leung Kwok-hung and Regina Ip ranked the 5th and 6th.
In our naming survey conducted in mid-May, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Leung Chun-ying, Carrie Lam and Donald Tsang were the top three. The corresponding percentages of respondents who named these figures were 62%, 57% and 34%. Tung Chee-hwa, Leung Kwok-hung, Regina Ip, John Tsang and Jasper Tsang occupied the 4th to 8th places, with 29%, 27%, 27%, 26% and 22% of respondents naming them respectively. The 9th to 10th ranks fell to Martin Lee and Anson Chan respectively, and percentages of respondents who named them were 17% and 14%. On the other hand, Holden Chow, who was involved in the CY Leung UGL investigation committee incident during the fieldwork period, occupied the 11th place with 14% of respondents naming him. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. For easy reference, POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since March 1997.
Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:
|
17-20/7/2012──24-27/10/2016 [11] |
20-28/11/2012──15-18/5/2017 [11] |
||||||||||||
|
Overall rank |
Political figures |
Av. rank for 10 surveys |
Overall rank |
Political figures |
Av. rank for 10 surveys |
Overall rank |
Political figures |
Av. rank for 10 surveys |
Overall rank |
Political figures |
Av. rank for 10 surveys |
||
|
1 |
Leung Chun-ying |
1.2 |
11 |
Emily Lau |
12.1 |
1 |
Leung Chun-ying |
1.2 |
|
11 |
Emily Lau |
12.8 |
|
|
2 |
Leung Kwok-hung |
2.7 |
12 |
Henry Tang |
14.1 |
2 |
Leung Kwok-hung |
3.0 |
|
12 |
Martin Lee |
14.2 |
|
|
3 |
Carrie Lam |
4.9 |
13 |
Martin Lee |
14.8 |
3 |
Carrie Lam |
4.5 |
|
13 |
Henry Tang |
15.3 |
|
|
4 |
Donald Tsang |
5.4 |
13 |
Albert Ho |
14.8 |
4 |
Donald Tsang |
5.2 |
|
14 |
Rita Fan |
16.0 |
|
|
5 |
Wong Yuk-man |
5.9 |
15 |
Rita Fan |
16.3 |
5 |
Regina Ip |
6.0 |
|
15 |
Albert Ho |
16.6 |
|
|
6 |
Regina Ip |
6.1 |
16 |
Alan Leong |
17.1 |
6 |
Jasper Tsang |
6.5 |
|
16 |
Alan Leong |
18.6 |
|
|
6 |
Jasper Tsang |
6.1 |
17 |
Lee Cheuk-yan |
17.8 |
7 |
Wong Yuk-man |
7.1 |
|
17 |
James Tien |
18.9 |
|
|
8 |
Tung Chee-hwa |
9.2 |
18 |
Tam Yiu-chung |
19.0 |
8 |
Tung Chee-hwa |
7.7 |
|
18 |
Lee Cheuk-yan |
19.4 |
|
|
9 |
Anson Chan |
10.4 |
19 |
James Tien |
20.5 |
9 |
Anson Chan |
9.3 |
|
19 |
Michael Tien |
20.0 |
|
|
10 |
John Tsang |
10.7 |
20 |
Audrey Eu |
21.1 |
10 |
John Tsang |
10.4 |
|
20 |
Ko Wing-man |
20.9 |
|
[11] For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.
Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Leung Chun-ying has the highest overall rank with an average ranking of 1.2. The overall ranks of Leung Kwok-hung and Carrie Lam come 2nd and 3rd respectively, with average rankings of 3.0 and 4.5. The overall ranks of Donald Tsang, Regina Ip and Jasper Tsang come 4th to 6th respectively, with average rankings of 5.2, 6.0 and 6.5. Wong Yuk-man and Tung Chee-hwa come 7th and 8th respectively, with average rankings of 7.1 and 7.7. The 9th and 10th overall ranks go to Anson Chan and John Tsang with corresponding average rankings of 9.3 and 10.4.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from October 24 to 27, 2016, while this survey was conducted from May 15 to 18, 2017. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
11/4/17 |
President Xi Jinping meets with Chief Executive-elect Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor in Zhongnanhai. |
|
26/3/17 |
Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor is elected as the fifth Chief Executive of Hong Kong. |
|
14/3/17 |
Chief Executive Candidates John Tsang Chun-wah, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor and Woo Kwok-hing attend a forum hosted by seven major TV and radio stations. |
|
13/3/17 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying is elected the Vice-Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. |
|
22/2/17 |
Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po announces the 2017-2018 Budget. |
|
17/2/17 |
Former Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen is convicted of misconduct in office. |
|
18/1/17 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying delivers the 2017 Policy Address. |
|
5/1/17 |
West Kowloon Cultural District Authority announces to launch a six-week public consultation of Palace Museum on its design and operation. |
|
3/1/17 |
Hong Kong and Shenzhen agree to jointly develop Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovation and Technology Park in Lok Ma Chau Loop. |
|
9/12/16 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying announces he will not seek re-election. |
|
2/12/16 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying and Secretary for Justice Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung apply for judicial review on the qualifications of lawmakers Lau Siu-lai, Edward Yiu Chung-yim, Nathan Law Kwun-chung and Leung Kwok-hung. |
|
15/11/16 |
The High Court rules that Youngspiration’s Leung Chung-hang and Yau Wai-ching are disqualified as legislators. |
Commentary
Frank Wai-Kin Lee, Research Manager of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “The purpose of our ranking of political figures is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. According to our latest survey, Leung Chun-ying continues to be the most visible political figure in Hong Kong. Carrie Lam ranks 2nd while Donald Tsang ranks 3rd. Compared to 7 months ago, 8 people remain on the ‘top 10’ list, Wong Yuk-man and Starry Lee who ranked 7th and 9th last time have both fallen out of the list after dropping to the 15th and 13th positions respectively. They are replaced by Martin Lee and Anson Chan who have gone up from the 15th and 14th places to occupy the 9th and 10th places respectively. The ups and downs within the latest list should be good reflections of our changing political environment. If we would like to focus on long term development, we can use the overall rankings accumulated over five years. Figures show that Leung Chun-ying, Leung Kwok-hung, Carrie Lam, Donald Tsang and Regina Ip are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of ‘people’s most familiar political figures’ is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these rankings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”
Future Releases (Tentative)
Appendix
|
All ranks of CE-elect, Incumbent CE and Past CE |
||||
|
Survey Date |
Carrie Lam |
CY Leung |
Donald Tsang |
CH Tung |
|
15-18/5/2017 |
2 CE-elect |
1 Incumbent CE |
3 Past CE |
4 Past CE |
|
24-27/10/2016 |
6 |
1 Incumbent CE |
8 Past CE |
10 Past CE |
|
3-5/5/2016 |
3 |
1 Incumbent CE |
8 Past CE |
9 Past CE |
|
2-5/11/2015 |
2 |
1 Incumbent CE |
4 Past CE |
9 Past CE |
|
8-14/5/2015 |
2 |
1 Incumbent CE |
5 Past CE |
4 Past CE |
|
31/10-5/11/2014 |
2 |
1 Incumbent CE |
9 Past CE |
5 Past CE |
|
22-30/4/2014 |
7 |
3 Incumbent CE |
4 Past CE |
6 Past CE |
|
4-7/11/2013 |
8 |
1 Incumbent CE |
2 Past CE |
6 Past CE |
|
23/4-1/5/2013 |
10 |
1 Incumbent CE |
4 Past CE |
14 Past CE |
|
20-28/11/2012 |
4 |
1 Incumbent CE |
5 Past CE |
12 Past CE |
|
17-20/7/2012 |
6 |
1 Incumbent CE |
5 Past CE |
19 Past CE |
|
7-17/11/2011 |
36 |
7 |
1 Incumbent CE |
17 Past CE |
|
3-10/5/2011 |
23 |
1 Incumbent CE |
22 Past CE |
|
|
8-12/11/2010 |
22 |
1 Incumbent CE |
20 Past CE |
|
|
18-20/5/2010 |
49 |
24 |
1 Incumbent CE |
23 Past CE |
|
19-23/11/2009 |
50 |
31 |
1 Incumbent CE |
23 Past CE |
|
19-22/5/2009 |
50 |
1 Incumbent CE |
25 Past CE |
|
|
26-30/11/2008 |
50 |
1 Incumbent CE |
35 Past CE |
|
|
28/5-2/6/2008 |
28 |
1 Incumbent CE |
17 Past CE |
|
|
22-25/10/2007 |
50 |
3 Incumbent CE |
24 Past CE |
|
|
17-20/4/2007 |
29 |
1 Incumbent CE |
20 Past CE |
|
|
3-6/10/2006 |
1 Incumbent CE |
24 Past CE |
||
|
18-21/4/2006 |
29 |
1 Incumbent CE |
21 Past CE |
|
|
20-21/10/2005 |
43 |
1 Incumbent CE |
11 Past CE |
|
|
11-14/4/2005 |
40 |
1 |
4 Past CE |
|
|
11-14/10/2004 |
44 |
3 |
1 Incumbent CE |
|
|
13-16/4/2004 |
43 |
3 |
1 Incumbent CE |
|
|
8-11/10/2003 |
40 |
2 |
1 Incumbent CE |
|
|
4-9/4/2003 |
26 |
2 |
1 Incumbent CE |
|
|
2-7/10/2002 |
17 |
2 |
1 Incumbent CE |
|
|
2-8/4/2002 |
32 |
2 |
1 Incumbent CE |
|
|
5-8/10/2001 |
22 |
2 |
1 Incumbent CE |
|
|
18-30/4/2001 |
35 |
3 |
2 Incumbent CE |
|
|
3-9/10/2000 |
35 |
4 |
3 Incumbent CE |
|
|
6-7/4/2000 |
37 |
4 |
1 Incumbent CE |
|
|
13-15/12/1999 |
23 |
3 |
1 Incumbent CE |
|
|
6/8/1999 |
24 |
5 |
1 Incumbent CE |
|
|
15/4/1999 |
4 |
2 Incumbent CE |
||
|
8-9/12/1998 |
5 |
1 Incumbent CE |
||
|
11/8/1998 |
5 |
1 Incumbent CE |
||
|
14-15/4/1998 |
12 |
2 Incumbent CE |
||
|
8-9/12/1997 |
33 |
8 |
1 Incumbent CE |
|
|
12/8/1997 |
28 |
8 |
1 Incumbent CE |
|
|
17-18/3/1997 |
16 |
4 CE-elect |
||
