HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE, CE-elect and principal officialsBack
Press Release on May 16, 2017
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying) | Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 121 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 122nd CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong people between 8 and 11 May, 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE CY Leung has slightly increased by 0.2 mark to 41.7 compared to two weeks ago, but still below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 25%, disapproval rate 68%, giving a net popularity of negative 43 percentage points, decreased by 3 percentage points from late April. As for CE-elect Carrie Lam, her latest support rating is 56.7 marks, approval rate 47%, disapproval rate 44%, meaning that her net popularity has significantly increased from negative 7 percentage points registered two weeks ago to positive 3 percentage points, basically back to the level registered in early April. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 55.3 marks. His approval rate is 35%, disapproval rate 18%, giving a net popularity of positive 17 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 39.7 marks, approval rate 21%, disapproval rate 49%, thus a net popularity of negative 27 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 47.3 marks, approval rate 27%, disapproval rate 32%, giving a net popularity of negative 5 percentage point. In terms of popularity rating and approval rate, Matthew Cheung is currently the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 7 among 13 Directors have gone up while those of 6 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung register significant changes in their net approval rates, with the former two up by 7 percentage points and the latter down by 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Nicholas Yang, Lau Kong-wah and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 5, 22 and 52 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 76 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Ceajer Chan falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Lai Tung-kwok, Anthony Cheung, Raymond Tam, Gregory So, Wong Kam-sing, Matthew Cheung, Rimsky Yuen, Lau Kong-wah and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Stephen Sui, Clement Cheung, Eric Ma and Nicholas Yang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Eddie Ng falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while CY Leung falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 72%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Tai, reprints the abstracts of three articles written by Director of POP, Robert Chung, before on CE popularity, to discuss the relationship between CE popularity and governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site or facebook page “Chung’s Blunt Words”.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 72.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung, CE-elect Carrie Lam and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
8-11/5/2017 |
1,004 |
72.1% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
|
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[7] (maximum values) |
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[7] (maximum values) |
|
1,300 |
+/- 2.8% |
1,350 |
+/- 2.7% |
|
1,200 |
+/- 2.9% |
1,250 |
+/- 2.8% |
|
1,100 |
+/- 3.0% |
1,150 |
+/- 3.0% |
|
1,000 |
+/- 3.2% |
1,050 |
+/- 3.1% |
|
900 |
+/- 3.3% |
950 |
+/- 3.2% |
|
800 |
+/- 3.5% |
850 |
+/- 3.4% |
|
700 |
+/- 3.8% |
750 |
+/- 3.7% |
|
600 |
+/- 4.1% |
650 |
+/- 3.9% |
|
500 |
+/- 4.5% |
550 |
+/- 4.3% |
|
400 |
+/- 5.0% |
450 |
+/- 4.7% |
[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.
Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
20-24/2/17 |
6-10/3/17 |
16-20/3/17 |
3-6/4/17 |
24-27/4/17 |
8-11/5/17 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
1,006 |
1,005 |
1,017 |
1,009 |
1,006 |
1,004 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
70.8% |
69.8% |
72.2% |
73.1% |
71.4% |
72.1% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error [8] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE CY Leung |
41.7 |
39.4[9] |
40.5 |
41.3 |
41.5 |
41.7+/-1.9 |
+0.2 |
|
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung |
21% |
19% |
18% |
23%[9] |
26% |
25+/-3% |
-1% |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung |
75%[9] |
77% |
79% |
71%[9] |
66%[9] |
68+/-3% |
+2% |
|
Net approval rate |
-55%[9] |
-59% |
-61% |
-47%[9] |
-40%[9] |
-43+/-5% |
-3% |
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Recent popularity figures of CE-elect Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
27-30/3/17 |
3-6/4/17 |
24-27/4/17 |
8-11/5/17 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
1,002 |
1,009 |
1,006 |
1,004 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
70.6% |
73.1% |
71.4% |
72.1% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error [10] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE-elect Carrie Lam |
55.6 |
55.6 |
52.6[11] |
56.7+/-1.8 |
+4.1[11] |
|
Vote of confidence in CE-elect Carrie Lam |
43% |
48%[11] |
42%[11] |
47+/-3% |
+5%[11] |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE-elect Carrie Lam |
50% |
46%[11] |
49% |
44+/-3% |
-5%[11] |
|
Net approval rate |
-8% |
2%[11] |
-7%[11] |
3+/-6% |
+10%[11] |
[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
|
Date of survey |
3-5/1/17 |
6-9/2/17 |
22/2/17[12] |
6-10/3/17 |
3-6/4/17 |
8-11/5/17 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base[12] |
544-641 |
615-664 |
559 |
497-688 |
571-601 |
542-624 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
56.7% |
70.5% |
64.4% |
69.8% |
73.1% |
72.1% |
-- |
|
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [13] |
-- |
|
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung[14] |
-- |
50.4 |
-- |
52.5[15] |
51.3 |
55.3+/-2.0 |
+4.0[15] |
|
Vote of confidence in
|
-- |
29% |
-- |
28% |
31% |
35+/-4% |
+4% |
|
Vote of no confidence in
|
-- |
17% |
-- |
15% |
17% |
18+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate[14] |
-- |
12% |
-- |
13% |
14% |
17+/-6% |
+3% |
|
Rating of FS Paul Chan[14] |
-- |
34.0 |
47.4[15] |
38.0[15] |
37.2 |
39.7+/-2.3 |
+2.5 [15] |
|
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan[14] |
-- |
17% |
30%[15] |
21%[15] |
16%[15] |
21+/-3% |
+5%[15] |
|
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan[14] |
-- |
46% |
26%[15] |
44%[15] |
49%[15] |
49+/-4% |
-- |
|
Net approval rate[14] |
-- |
-29% |
4%[15] |
-24%[15] |
-33%[15] |
-27+/-6% |
+6% |
|
Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen |
41.6 |
45.5[15] |
-- |
44.4 |
47.3[15] |
47.3+/-2.3 |
-- |
|
Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
27% |
31% |
-- |
27% |
30% |
27+/-4% |
-3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
35% |
34% |
-- |
34% |
30% |
32+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Net approval rate |
-8% |
-2% |
-- |
-7% |
-1% |
-5+/-6% |
-4% |
[12] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. The survey conducted on 22/2/2017 was the Budget instant survey and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.
[13] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[14] Matthew Cheung and Paul Chan were appointed Chief Secretary for Administration and Financial Secretary respectively by the Central Government on January 16, 2017.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:
|
Date of survey |
6-10/3/17 |
3-6/4/17 |
8-11/5/17 |
Latest change |
|||
|
Sample base [16] |
574-633 |
566-601 |
585-628 |
-- |
|||
|
Overall response rate |
69.8% |
73.1% |
72.1% |
-- |
|||
|
Sample base for each question /
|
Base |
% |
Base |
% |
Base |
% &
|
-- |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man |
608 |
82%[18] |
579 |
82% |
599 |
80+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man |
608 |
6% |
579 |
3%[18] |
599 |
3+/-1% |
-- |
|
Net approval rate |
608 |
76% |
579 |
79% |
599 |
76+/-4% |
-3% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan |
610 |
51% |
589 |
44%[18] |
592 |
51+/-4% |
+7%[18] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan |
610 |
7% |
589 |
7% |
592 |
9+/-2% |
+2% |
|
Net approval rate |
610 |
43% |
589 |
36%[18] |
592 |
43+/-5% |
+7%[18] |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam |
593 |
33% |
597 |
34% |
600 |
39+/-4% |
+5%[18] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam |
593 |
24%[18] |
597 |
21% |
600 |
22+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate |
593 |
9% |
597 |
13%[19] |
600 |
18+/-6% |
+5% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung |
599 |
19% |
592 |
21% |
616 |
26+/-4% |
+5%[18] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung |
599 |
8% |
592 |
7% |
616 |
9+/-2% |
+2% |
|
Net approval rate |
599 |
11%[18] |
592 |
13%[19] |
616 |
17+/-5%[20] |
+4% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung |
617 |
37%[18] |
574 |
40% |
595 |
40+/-4% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung |
617 |
22% |
574 |
19% |
595 |
23+/-3% |
+4%[18] |
|
Net approval rate |
617 |
15%[18] |
574 |
21% |
595 |
17+/-6%20] |
-4% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Stephen Sui |
631 |
23% |
598 |
23% |
623 |
28+/-4% |
+5%[18] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Stephen Sui |
631 |
13% |
598 |
12% |
623 |
11+/-3% |
-1% |
|
Net approval rate |
631 |
10% |
598 |
11% |
623 |
16+/-5% |
+5% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
574 |
36% |
601 |
32% |
608 |
37+/-4% |
+5%[18] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
574 |
19%[18] |
601 |
25%[18] |
608 |
23+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Net approval rate |
574 |
17% |
601 |
7%[18] |
608 |
14+/-6% |
+7%[18] |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok |
633 |
36% |
598 |
44%[18] |
585 |
42+/-4% |
-2% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok |
633 |
31%[18] |
598 |
27% |
585 |
30+/-4% |
+3% |
|
Net approval rate |
633 |
5%[18] |
598 |
17%[18] |
585 |
12+/-7% |
-5% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So |
589 |
38% |
597 |
38% |
628 |
37+/-4% |
-1% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So |
589 |
21% |
597 |
20% |
628 |
27+/-4% |
+7%[18] |
|
Net approval rate |
589 |
16% |
597 |
18% |
628 |
10+/-6% |
-8%[18] |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Eric Ma |
594 |
17% |
585 |
20% |
619 |
21+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Eric Ma |
594 |
16% |
585 |
15% |
619 |
14+/-3% |
-1% |
|
Net approval rate |
594 |
1% |
585 |
5% |
619 |
7+/-5% |
+2% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang |
608 |
24% |
579 |
21% |
588 |
20+/-3% |
-1% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang |
608 |
25% |
579 |
23% |
588 |
25+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Net approval rate |
608 |
-1% |
579 |
-2% |
588 |
-5+/-6% |
-3% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah |
611 |
20% |
592 |
22% |
591 |
24+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah |
611 |
47% |
592 |
46% |
591 |
47+/-4% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate |
611 |
-28% |
592 |
-24% |
591 |
-22+/-7% |
+2% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng |
600 |
11%[18] |
566 |
13% |
611 |
15+/-3% |
+2% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng |
600 |
67% |
566 |
63% |
611 |
67+/-4% |
+4% |
|
Net approval rate |
600 |
-56%[18] |
566 |
-50% |
611 |
-52+/-6% |
-2% |
[16] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[17] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[18] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[19] Based on the figures in early April, in two decimal places, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam and Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung are 13.34 and 13.33 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked sixth and seventh.
[20] Based on the figures of latest survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung and Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung are 17.1 and 16.9 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked fourth and fifth this time.
The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 41.7 marks, and 25% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 43 percentage points. CE-elect Carrie Lam scored 56.7 marks, and 47% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is positive 3 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Matthew Cheung, FS Paul Chan and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 55.3, 39.7 and 47.3 marks, and 35%, 21% and 27% would vote for their reappointments correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 17, negative 27 and negative 5 percentage points respectively.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 76 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam with net approval rates of positive 43 and positive 18 percentage points respectively. Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Stephen Sui, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Development Eric Ma, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Education Eddie Ng ranked 4th to 13th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 17, positive 17, positive 16, positive 14, positive 12, positive 10, positive 7, negative 5, negative 22 and negative 52 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 3 to 6 April, 2017 while this survey was conducted from 8 to 11 May, 2017. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
11/5/17 |
The suspect in Kowloon Bay rape and robbery case commits suicide in police station. |
|
9/5/17 |
United Christian Hospital admits that doctors failed to prescribe Tang Kwai-sze with antiviral drugs for hepatitis B. |
|
9/5/17 |
Media reports on Chairman of the National People’s Congress Zhang Dejiang’s working visit to Macau. |
|
26/4/17 |
Audit Commission publishes Report No. 68 of the Director of Audit on the results of value for money audits. |
|
25/4/17 |
The government signs a new Scheme of Control Agreement with CLP Power and Hongkong Electric. |
|
17/4/17 |
China’s GDP increases 6.9% in the first quarter from a year earlier. |
|
13/4/17 |
Media reports on the issue of organ donation. |
|
11/4/17 |
President Xi Jinping meets with Chief Executive-elect Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor in Zhongnanhai. |
|
10/4/17 |
A computer technician who set fire to a taxi in Mong Kok Riot has been jailed for four years and nine months. |
|
10/4/17 |
The government announces Life Annuity Scheme. |
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Tai.
Our latest survey conducted in early May shows that the popularity rating of CE CY Leung has slightly increased by 0.2 mark to 41.7 compared to two weeks ago, but still below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 25%, disapproval rate 68%, giving a net popularity of negative 43 percentage points, decreased by 3 percentage points from late April.
As for CE-elect Carrie Lam, her latest support rating is 56.7 marks, approval rate 47%, disapproval rate 44%, meaning that her net popularity has significantly increased from negative 7 percentage points registered two weeks ago to positive 3 percentage points, basically back to the level registered in early April.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 55.3 marks. His approval rate is 35%, disapproval rate 18%, giving a net popularity of positive 17 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 39.7 marks, approval rate 21%, disapproval rate 49%, thus a net popularity of negative 27 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 47.3 marks, approval rate 27%, disapproval rate 32%, giving a net popularity of negative 5 percentage point. In terms of popularity rating and approval rate, Matthew Cheung is currently the most popular Secretary of Department.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 7 among 13 Directors have gone up while those of 6 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung register significant changes in their net approval rates, with the former two up by 7 percentage points and the latter down by 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Nicholas Yang, Lau Kong-wah and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 5, 22 and 52 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 76 percentage points.
According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Ceajer Chan falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Lai Tung-kwok, Anthony Cheung, Raymond Tam, Gregory So, Wong Kam-sing, Matthew Cheung, Rimsky Yuen, Lau Kong-wah and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Stephen Sui, Clement Cheung, Eric Ma and Nicholas Yang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Eddie Ng falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while CY Leung falls into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:
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“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
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Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (80%) |
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“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
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Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (51%) |
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“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
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Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (42%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (40%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (39%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (37%)[21]; Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (37%)[21]; CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (35%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (27%); Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (24%); FS Paul Chan Mo-po (21%) |
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“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
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Secretary for Labour and Welfare Stephen Sui Wai-keung (28%, 39%); Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung Wan-ching (26%, 34%); Secretary for Development Eric Ma Siu-cheung (21%, 34%); Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (20%, 45%) |
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“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
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Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (67%) [22] |
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“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
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CE Leung Chun-ying (68%) |
[21] In two decimal places, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing are 36.79% and 36.77%.
[22] In one decimal place, the disapproval rate of Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim is 66.5%.
Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, I reprint the abstracts of three articles written by Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the relationship between CE popularity and governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site or facebook page “Chung’s Blunt Words”.
“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis...”
“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of …50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party… In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister… after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time...”
“Governance Crises Cannot be Ignored” (released on 25/4/2017): “In contemporary Britain, if the popularity of the Prime Minister falls below 30%, party rule will change… PM has to get an ‘approval rate’ of 44% in order to remain in office. In the United States, since 1944, a ruling party can only remain in office if the president achieved an ‘approval rate’ of 48% before the election… thus, back in Hong Kong, benchmarking ‘governance crisis’ with a rating score of 45, equivalent to 20% approval rate looks reasonable… Less than a month after the author issued a ‘credibility crisis’ in 2003, half a million people took to the street… Soon after CY Leung became CE, his popularity gradually sank, many times close to the crisis level of 45… Admit or not, crisis finally erupted into the Umbrella Movement and Mongkok Chaos, which were much more serious than that of July 1 rally in 2003.”
Future Release (Tentative)
