HKU POP releases ratings of top 10 political groupsBack
Press Release on May 9, 2017
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Top Ten Political Groups) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 121 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP conducted a double stage survey on the rankings of the top 10 political groups in April, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey of “Top 10 Political Groups” conducted two weeks ago shows that compared to six months ago, the support ratings of all political groups have gone down significantly and all stay below 50 marks. The ratings of FTU and DAB even drop to their record lows since they first appeared on the list in September 1991 and November 1992 respectively. Compared to the last survey, 9 out of 10 political groups have managed to maintain their places in the ‘top 10’ again, while Civic Passion enters the list for the first time and replaces NWS. In terms of relative rankings, LP goes up three positions to top the list. CP remains at the second place, Labour Party and FTU go up two positions each to rank 3rd and 4th, DP goes down two positions to rank 5th, NPP goes up two positions to rank 6th, DAB remains at the 7th place, LSD and PP go up one position each to rank 8th and 9th, Civic Passion enters the list for the first time to rank 10th. It should be noted, however, that our ‘Top 10 Political Groups’ only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings of top ten political groups registered fall between +/-1.5 and +/-2.6 at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 71%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey of top 10 political groups is 1,001 successful interviews, not 1,001 x 72.3% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is other 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 71.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.6 at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Overall
|
Response rate |
Sampling error of percentages/ratings[6] |
|
10-12/4/2017 (First stage naming survey) |
1,001 |
72.3% |
+/-3% |
|
24-27/4/2017 (Second stage rating survey) |
1,006 |
71.4% |
+/-2.6 |
[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
The research design of our “Top ten political groups” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from April 10 to 12. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP), Civic Party (CP), Liberal Party (LP) and New People’s Party (NPP) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted from April 24 to 27, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:
|
Date of survey |
19-23/10/2015 |
18-21/4/2016 |
10-13/10/2016 |
24-27/4/2017 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample base |
586-676 |
557-684 |
503-680 |
498-675 |
-- |
|
|
Overall response rate |
66.8% |
68.6% |
68.4% |
71.4% |
-- |
|
|
Finding / Recog rate |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error [7] |
Recog% |
-- |
|
LP |
44.2{4} |
44.7{1} |
48.6{4}[9] |
44.0+/-1.5{1} |
86.5% |
-4.6[9] |
|
CP |
44.9{2}[9] |
44.4{2} |
49.6{2}[9] |
43.6+/-2.1{2} |
86.2% |
-6.0[9] |
|
Labour Party |
41.2[8] [9] |
40.3{6} |
47.6{5}[9] |
43.5+/-1.9{3} |
77.0% |
-4.1[9] |
|
FTU |
43.0{5}[9] [10] |
42.7{3} |
47.3{6}[9] |
42.2+/-2.3{4} |
92.6% |
-5.1[9] |
|
DP |
44.4{3}[9] |
41.1{5}[9] |
49.0{3}[9] |
41.4+/-1.9{5} |
91.5% |
-7.6[9] |
|
NPP |
38.5{8}[9] |
43.0[8] [9] |
44.1{8} |
40.9+/-1.9{6} |
81.8% |
-3.2[9] |
|
DAB |
41.8{7}[9] |
41.5{4} |
44.5{7}[9] |
39.8+/-2.6{7} |
91.5% |
-4.7[9] |
|
LSD |
36.1{9} |
34.8{7} |
39.6{9}[9] |
34.0+/-2.1{8} |
84.0% |
-5.6[9] |
|
PP |
33.0{10} |
33.5{8} |
37.7{10}[9] |
30.4+/-2.3{9} |
88..3% |
-7.3[9] |
|
Civic Passion |
-- |
-- |
32.3[8] |
27.6+/-2.4{10} |
77.2% |
-4.7[9] |
|
NWS |
46.4[8] |
45.1[8] |
54.3{1} |
48.5+/-2.0[8] |
76.0% |
-5.8[9] |
|
BPA |
-- |
-- |
-- |
34.9+/-2.5[8] |
63.1% |
-- |
|
Youngspiration |
-- |
-- |
40.3[8] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Scholarism |
-- |
32.1{9} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
HKI |
-- |
29.4{10} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
ADPL |
46.0{1} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
HKCTU |
43.0{6}[9] [10] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.6 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[10] In two decimal places, the ratings of FTU and HKCTU are 43.02 and 42.96 respectively. Therefore, FTU and HKCTU ranked at 5th and 6th places respectively in that survey.
Findings obtained from second half of April showed that, the most popular political group was Liberal Party (LP) which attained 44.0 marks. Civic Party (CP), Labour Party, Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Democratic Party (DP) and New People’s Party (NPP) scored 43.6, 43.5, 42.2, 41.4 and 40.9 marks respectively and ranked 2nd to 6th. The 7th and 10th places went to Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), League of Social Democrats (LSD), People Power (PP) and Civic Passion, attaining 39.8, 34.0, 30.4 and 27.6 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 42.9 marks. For this latest survey, Neighbourhood and Worker’s Service Centre (NWS) and Business and Professionals Alliance for Hong Kong (BPA) obtained a support rating of 48.5 and 34.9 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 4 surveys are tabulated as follows:
|
Date of survey |
19-23/10/15 |
18-21/4/16 |
10-13/10/16 |
24-27/4/17 |
No. of times on top 10 |
Average rating [11] |
Overall ranking [12] |
|
CP |
44.9 |
44.4 |
49.6 |
43.6 |
4 |
45.6 |
{1} |
|
LP |
44.2 |
44.7 |
48.6 |
44.0 |
4 |
45.4 |
{2} |
|
DP |
44.4 |
41.1 |
49.0 |
41.4 |
4 |
44.0 |
{3} |
|
FTU |
43.0 |
42.7 |
47.3 |
42.2 |
4 |
43.8 |
{4} |
|
DAB |
41.8 |
41.5 |
44.5 |
39.8 |
4 |
41.9 |
{5} |
|
LSD |
36.1 |
34.8 |
39.6 |
34.0 |
4 |
36.1 |
{6} |
|
PP |
33.0 |
33.5 |
37.7 |
30.4 |
4 |
33.7 |
{7} |
|
Labour Party |
-- |
40.3 |
47.6 |
43.5 |
3 |
43.8 |
{8} |
|
NPP |
38.5 |
-- |
44.1 |
40.9 |
3 |
41.2 |
{9} |
|
NWS |
-- |
-- |
54.3 |
-- |
1 |
54.3 |
{10} |
|
ADPL |
46.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
46.0 |
{11} |
|
HKCTU |
43.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
43.0 |
{12} |
|
Scholarism |
-- |
32.1 |
-- |
-- |
1 |
32.1 |
{13} |
|
HKI |
-- |
29.4 |
-- |
-- |
1 |
29.4 |
{14} |
|
Civic Passion |
-- |
-- |
-- |
27.6 |
1 |
27.6 |
{15} |
[11] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 4 surveys.
[12] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
The overall rankings in the past 4 surveys showed that, seven political groups were listed for four times, CP achieved an average rating of 45.6 and ranked first. Meanwhile, the 2nd to 7th ranks fell to LP, DP, FTU, DAB, LSD and PP, with respective average ratings of 45.4, 44.0, 43.8, 41.9, 36.1 and 33.7 marks. Labour Party and NPP were listed three times and ranked the 8th and 9th with respective average ratings of 43.8 and 41.2 marks. Furthermore, NWS, ADPL, HKCTU, Scholarism, HKI and Civc Passion were listed once with average ratings of 54.3, 46.0, 43.0, 32.1, 29.4 and 27.6 marks respectively, now ranked the 10th to 15th.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from October 10 to 13, 2016 while this survey was conducted from April 24 to 27, 2017. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
27/3/17 |
The police charges nine protesters of the Occupy Central movement. |
|
26/3/17 |
Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor is elected as the fifth Chief Executive of Hong Kong. |
|
22/2/17 |
Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po announces the 2017-2018 Budget. |
|
18/1/17 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying delivers the 2017 Policy Address. |
|
6/1/17 |
Media reports on the issue of constructing Palace Museum in West Kowloon. |
|
10/12/16 |
2016 Election Committee Subsector Elections. |
|
2/12/16 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying and Secretary for Justice Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung apply for judicial review on the qualifications of lawmakers Lau Siu-lai, Edward Yiu Chung-yim, Nathan Law Kwun-chung and Leung Kwok-hung. |
|
30/11/16 |
The Central Government accepts applications for home return permits from pan-democrats. |
|
15/11/16 |
The High Court rules that Youngspiration’s Leung Chung-hang and Yau Wai-ching are disqualified as legislators. |
|
7/11/16 |
The National People’s Congress passes the interpretation of Article 104 of the Basic Law. |
|
19/10/16 |
Pro-establishment lawmakers stage walk-out to prevent localists from retaking oaths. |
Commentary
Frank Wai-Kin Lee, Research Manager of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey of ‘Top 10 Political Groups’ conducted two weeks ago shows that compared to six months ago, the support ratings of all political groups have gone down significantly and all stay below 50 marks. The ratings of FTU and DAB even drop to their record lows since they first appeared on the list in September 1991 and November 1992 respectively. Compared to the last survey, 9 out of 10 political groups have managed to maintain their places in the “top 10” again, while Civic Passion enters the list for the first time and replaces NWS. In terms of relative rankings, LP goes up three positions to top the list. CP remains at the second place, Labour Party and FTU go up two positions each to rank 3rd and 4th, DP goes down two positions to rank 5th, NPP goes up two positions to rank 6th, DAB remains at the 7th place, LSD and PP go up one position each to rank 8th and 9th, Civic Passion enters the list for the first time to rank 10th. It should be noted, however, that our ‘Top 10 Political Groups’ only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. As to what events have affected the ups and downs of the popularity of these groups, readers can make their own judgment after reading through detailed records placed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”
Future Release (Tentative)
