HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack
Press Release on May 2, 2017
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government) |
Special Announcements
1. Robert Chung, the Director of Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong, today starts to publish his article series “Chung’s Blunt Words: HKSAR 20th Anniversary Series” in his online column “Chung’s Blunt Words”, suggesting the new government to treasure press freedom in order to improve governance. The article will be uploaded onto the facebook page named “Chung’s Blunt Words” (www.facebook.com/ChungsBluntWords) soon. The copyrights of all articles are open to the world, the media is welcome to re-publish the articles in full or in part, early or concurrent publication can also be arranged.
2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 120 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 121st CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong people between 24 and 27 April 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 41.5 marks, continues to stand below the warning line of 45. His approval rate now stands at 26%, disapproval rate 66%, giving a net popularity of negative 40 percentage points, significantly increased by 7 percentage points from early April. As for CE-elect Carrie Lam, her latest support rating is 52.6 marks, approval rate 42%, disapproval rate 49%, giving a net popularity of negative 7 percentage points, back to the level when she was just elected. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has increased slightly compared to a month ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 32%, dissatisfaction rate 49%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 17 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of CY Leung and Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 71%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Tai, reprints the abstracts of three articles written by Director of POP, Robert Chung, before on CE popularity, to discuss the relationship between CE popularity and governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site or facebook page “Chung’s Blunt Words”.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 71.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
24-27/4/2017 |
1,006 |
71.4% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people’s satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
6-9/2/17 |
20-24/2/17 |
6-10/3/17 |
16-20/3/17 |
3-6/4/17 |
24-27/4/17 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
1,029 |
1,006 |
1,005 |
1,017 |
1,009 |
1,006 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
70.5% |
70.8% |
69.8% |
72.2% |
73.1% |
71.4% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error [7] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE CY Leung |
40.8 |
41.7 |
39.4[9] |
40.5 |
41.3 |
41.5+/-1.9 |
+0.2 |
|
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung |
23% |
21% |
19% |
18% |
23%[9] |
26+/-3% |
+3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung |
71%[9] |
75%[9] |
77% |
79% |
71%[9] |
66+/-3% |
-5%[9] |
|
Net approval rate |
-48%[9] |
-55%[9] |
-59% |
-61% |
-47%[9] |
-40+/-6% |
+7%[9] |
|
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[8] |
-- |
32% |
-- |
27%[9] |
-- |
32+/-4% |
+5%[9] |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[8] |
-- |
45% |
-- |
49% |
-- |
49+/-4% |
-- |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-- |
-13% |
-- |
-21%[9] |
-- |
-17+/-7% |
+4% |
|
Mean value[8] |
-- |
2.7 (Base=626) |
-- |
2.6 (Base=651) |
-- |
2.6+/-0.1 (Base=626) |
-- |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 631.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Recent popularity figures of CE-elect Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
27-30/3/17 |
3-6/4/17 |
24-27/4/17 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
1,002 |
1,009 |
1,006 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
70.6% |
73.1% |
71.4% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error [10] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE-elect Carrie Lam |
55.6 |
55.6 |
52.6+/-1.8 |
-3.0[11] |
|
Vote of confidence in CE-elect Carrie Lam |
43% |
48%[11] |
42+/-3% |
-6%[11] |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE-elect Carrie Lam |
50% |
46%[11] |
49+/-3% |
+3% |
|
Net approval rate |
-8% |
2%[11] |
-7+/-6% |
-9%[11] |
[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 41.5 marks, and 26% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 40 percentage points. CE-elect Carrie Lam scored 52.6 marks, and 42% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is negative 7 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 32% were satisfied, whereas 49% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 17 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rating and support rate of Leung Chun-ying and Carrie Lam as Chief Executive by respondents’ age and education attainment, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:
|
Date of survey: 24-27/4/2017 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Rating of CE CY Leung[12] |
27.9+/-3.3
|
41.0+/-3.1
|
47.1+/-2.9
|
41.5+/-1.9
|
|
|
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE[12] |
Support |
7+/-4%
|
24+/-5%
|
35+/-4%
|
26+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
89+/-5%
|
71+/-5%
|
54+/-5%
|
66+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
4+/-3%
|
5+/-2%
|
11+/-3%
|
7+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
|
Date of survey: 24-27/4/2017 |
Primary or below |
Secondary |
Tertiary or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Rating of CE CY Leung[13] |
49.6+/-4.1
|
43.5+/-2.7
|
31.8+/-3.3
|
41.6+/-1.9
|
|
|
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE[13] |
Support |
36+/-6%
|
29+/-4%
|
13+/-4%
|
26+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
52+/-7%
|
64+/-4%
|
82+/-5%
|
66+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
12+/-4%
|
7+/-2%
|
5+/-3%
|
7+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[13] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
|
Date of survey: 24-27/4/2017 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Rating of CE-elect Carrie Lam[14] |
36.7+/-3.8
|
51.7+/-2.9
|
59.6+/-2.5
|
52.6+/-1.8
|
|
|
Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[14] |
Support |
16+/-6%
|
40+/-5%
|
54+/-5%
|
42+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
82+/-6%
|
54+/-5%
|
34+/-4%
|
49+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
3+/-2%
|
6+/-3%
|
12+/-3%
|
8+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[14] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
|
Date of survey: 24-27/4/2017 |
Primary or below |
Secondary |
Tertiary or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Rating of CE-elect Carrie Lam[15] |
60.1+/-3.6
|
55.2+/-2.4
|
42.6+/-3.4
|
52.6+/-1.8
|
|
|
Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[15] |
Support |
58+/-6%
|
44+/-5%
|
27+/-5%
|
42+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
30+/-6%
|
49+/-5%
|
66+/-6%
|
49+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
13+/-4%
|
7+/-2%
|
7+/-3%
|
8+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[15] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 16 to 20 March, 2017 while this survey was conducted from 24 to 27 April, 2017. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
26/4/17 |
Audit Commission publishes Report No. 68 of the Director of Audit on the results of value for money audits. |
|
25/4/17 |
The government signs a new Scheme of Control Agreement with CLP Power and Hongkong Electric. |
|
13/4/17 |
Media reports on the issue of organ donation. |
|
11/4/17 |
President Xi Jinping meets with Chief Executive-elect Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor in Zhongnanhai. |
|
10/4/17 |
A computer technician who set fire to a taxi in Mong Kok Riot has been jailed for four years and nine months. |
|
10/4/17 |
The government announces Life Annuity Scheme. |
|
1/4/17 |
Chief executive-elect Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor accepts TV and radio interviews. |
|
27/3/17 |
The police charge nine protesters of the Occupy Central movement. |
|
26/3/17 |
Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor is elected as the fifth Chief Executive of Hong Kong. |
|
22/3/17 |
Principal firefighter Yau Siu-ming dies in mountain rescue. |
|
21/3/17 |
The government reaches an agreement with MTR Corporation on the review of the fare adjustment mechanism. |
|
16/3/17 |
Three participants in Mong Kok Unrest are convicted of rioting. |
Commentary
Edward Chit-Fai Tai, Senior Data Analyst of POP, observed, “Our latest survey shows that the latest support rating of CE CY Leung stands at 41.5 marks, continues to stand below the warning line of 45. His approval rate now stands at 26%, disapproval rate 66%, giving a net popularity of negative 40 percentage points, significantly increased by 7 percentage points from early April. As for CE-elect Carrie Lam, her latest support rating is 52.6 marks, approval rate 42%, disapproval rate 49%, giving a net popularity of negative 7 percentage points, back to the level when she was just elected. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has increased slightly compared to a month ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 32%, dissatisfaction rate 49%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 17 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of CY Leung and Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’. Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, I reprint the abstracts of three articles written by Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the relationship between CE popularity and governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site or facebook page “Chung’s Blunt Words”.”
“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis...”
“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of …50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party… In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister… after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time...”
“Governance Crises Cannot be Ignored” (released on 25/4/2017): “In contemporary Britain, if the popularity of the Prime Minister falls below 30%, party rule will change… PM has to get an ‘approval rate’ of 44% in order to remain in office. In the United States, since 1944, a ruling party can only remain in office if the president achieved an ‘approval rate’ of 48% before the election… thus, back in Hong Kong, benchmarking ‘governance crisis’ with a rating score of 45, equivalent to 20% approval rate looks reasonable… Less than a month after the author issued a ‘credibility crisis’ in 2003, half a million people took to the street… Soon after CY Leung became CE, his popularity gradually sank, many times close to the crisis level of 45… Admit or not, crisis finally erupted into the Umbrella Movement and Mongkok Chaos, which were much more serious than that of July 1 rally in 2003.”
Future Release (Tentative)
