HKU POP releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack
Press Release on April 25, 2017
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Top Ten Legislative Councillors) |
Special Announcements
-
Robert Chung, the Director of Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong, publishes his final article of “Chung’s Blunt Words: CE-elect Series” in his online column “Chung’s Blunt Words” (www.facebook.com/ChungsBluntWords) today. It will touch on the relationship between CE popularity rating and governance crisis. The copyrights of all articles are open to the world, the media are welcome to re-publish the articles in full or in part, early or concurrent publication can also be arranged.
- To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 120 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP conducted a double stage survey on the ratings of Legislative Councillors in April, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The latest survey of top 10 Legislative Councillors shows that compared to three months ago, in terms of familiarity, Nathan Law drops out of the “top 10” list and is replaced by Michael Tien who re-enters the list since October last year. In terms of absolute ratings, out of the 9 Councillors in the “top 10” list who were also rated last time, 4 have gone up, 5 have gone down. Among them, only the rise in Regina Ip’s rating has gone beyond sampling errors. In terms of relative rankings, Michael Tien re-enters the list to rank first. Eddie Chu continues to rank second. James To goes down two positions to rank third. Regina Ip and Claudia Mo switch their positions to rank fourth and fifth respectively. Tanya Chan goes down three positions to rank sixth. Starry Lee goes down one position to rank seventh. Chiang Lai-wan and Lau Siu-lai go up one position each to rank eighth and ninth. Leung Kwok-hung goes down two positions to rank tenth. It should be noted that our list of “top 10” only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 58 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the “top 10” list by design. The maximum sampling error of the ratings registered is +/-2.7 marks at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the rating survey is 72%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,009 successful interviews, not 1,009 x 73.1% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,001 successful interviews, not 1,001 x 72.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling errors of various ratings are not more than +/-2.7. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling errors of various ratings not more than +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of the top ten Legislative Councillors. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings [6] |
|
3-6/4/2017 (First stage naming survey) |
1,009 |
73.1% |
+/-3% |
|
10-12/4/2017 (Second stage rating survey) |
1,001 |
72.3% |
+/-2.7 |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
The research design of our “Top 10 Legislative Councillors” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from April 3 to 6. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 councillors whom they knew best. Leung Kwok-hung, Starry Lee, Regina Ip, Tanya Chan and James To were the top 5 councillors mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted from April 10 to 12, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:
|
Date of survey |
11-14/7/2016 |
10-13/10/2016 |
16-20/1/2017 |
10-12/4/2017 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample base[7] |
566-670 |
503-685 |
557-664 |
509-701 |
-- |
|
|
Overall response rate |
72.1% |
68.4% |
69.2% |
72.3% |
-- |
|
|
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[7] |
Recognition rate |
-- |
|
Michael Tien |
53.7{2} |
53.9{3} |
-- |
56.1+/-1.8{1} |
95.4% |
-- |
|
Eddie Chu |
--[10] |
56.5{2} |
53.3{2}[8] |
52.5+/-2.7{2} |
85.1% |
-0.8 |
|
James To |
49.1[9] |
57.3{1}[8] |
53.9{1}[8] |
51.8+/-2.3{3} |
91.4% |
-2.1 |
|
Regina Ip |
49.3{3} |
48.4{5} |
45.7{5}[8] |
48.5+/-2.2{4} |
97.6% |
+2.8[8] |
|
Claudia Mo |
-- |
-- |
46.4{4} |
47.9+/-2.2{5} |
86.3% |
+1.5 |
|
Tanya Chan |
--[10] |
-- |
47.7{3} |
46.6+/-2.3{6} |
87.3% |
-1.1 |
|
Starry Lee |
46.6[9] |
48.7{4} |
44.9{6}[8] |
44.5+/-2.5{7} |
90.0% |
-0.4 |
|
Chiang Lai-wan |
-- |
-- |
37.1{9} |
38.2+/-2.2{8} |
88.9% |
+1.1 |
|
Lau Siu-lai |
--[10] |
43.3 [9] |
36.9{10}[8] |
37.4+/-2.4{9} |
86.2% |
+0.5 |
|
Leung Kwok-hung |
36.5{9} |
39.8{8}[8] |
38.9{8} |
36.5+/-2.4{10} |
98.1% |
-2.4 |
|
Alvin Yeung |
--[10] |
-- |
55.1 [9] |
53.0+/-2.5[9] |
78.2% |
-2.1 |
|
Priscilla Leung |
-- |
-- |
-- |
41.6+/-2.4[9] |
82.3% |
-- |
|
Yiu Chung-yim |
--[10] |
-- |
42.2 [9] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Nathan Law |
--[10] |
45.4{7} |
39.0{7}[8] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Raymond Chan |
-- |
45.5{6} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Yau Wai-ching |
--[10] |
37.4{9} |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Holden Chow |
--[10] |
36.7{10} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Kwong Chun-yu |
--[10] |
53.8 [9] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Jasper Tsang |
65.9{1}[8] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Emily Lau |
46.6{4}[8] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Alan Leong |
44.8{5}[8] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Tam Yiu-chung |
43.1{6} |
--[10] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Lee Cheuk-yan |
41.5{7} |
--[10] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Albert Ho |
40.6{8} |
--[10] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Wong Yuk-man |
35.0{10} |
--[10] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. Starting from 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, with variable sub-sample size for each question. In latest survey, the sub-sample size of the questions varies between 509 and 701, and its effect has already been reflected in the sampling errors.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in the rating stage of survey are not counted.
[10] Not a Legislative Councillor during the survey period.
The latest survey showed that Michael Tien was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 56.1 marks. Eddie Chu and James To ranked the 2nd and 3rd with 52.5 and 51.8 marks correspondingly. The 4th to 7th ranks went to Regina Ip, Claudia Mo, Tanya Chan and Starry Lee who attained 48.5, 47.9, 46.6 and 44.5 marks respectively. Chiang Lai-wan, Lau Siu-lai and Leung Kwok-hung ranked the 8th to 10th, attaining 38.2, 37.4 and 36.5 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 51.4 marks, while that for the top 10 was 46.0 marks. For this latest survey, Alvin Yeung and Priscilla Leung obtained support ratings of 53.0 and 41.6 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past four surveys are tabulated as follows:
|
Date of survey |
11-14/7/16 |
10-13/10/16 |
16-20/1/17 |
10-12/4/17 |
No. of times on top 10 |
Average rating [11] |
Overall ranking [12] |
|
Regina Ip |
49.3 |
48.4 |
45.7 |
48.5 |
4 |
48.0 |
1 |
|
Leung Kwok-hung |
36.5 |
39.8 |
38.9 |
36.5 |
4 |
37.9 |
2 |
|
Michael Tien |
53.7 |
53.9 |
-- |
56.1 |
3 |
54.6 |
3 |
|
James To |
-- |
57.3 |
53.9 |
51.8 |
3 |
54.4 |
4 |
|
Eddie Chu |
--[13] |
56.5 |
53.3 |
52.5 |
3 |
54.1 |
5 |
|
Starry Lee |
-- |
48.7 |
44.9 |
44.5 |
3 |
46.0 |
6 |
|
Tanya Chan |
--[13] |
-- |
47.7 |
46.6 |
2 |
47.2[14] |
7 |
|
Claudia Mo |
-- |
-- |
46.4 |
47.9 |
2 |
47.2[14] |
8 |
|
Nathan Law |
--[13] |
45.4 |
39.0 |
-- |
2 |
42.2 |
9 |
|
Chiang Lai-wan |
-- |
-- |
37.1 |
38.2 |
2 |
37.6 |
10 |
|
Lau Siu-lai |
--[13] |
-- |
36.9 |
37.4 |
2 |
37.1 |
11 |
|
Jasper Tsang |
65.9 |
--[13] |
--[13] |
--[13] |
1 |
65.9 |
12 |
|
Emily Lau |
46.6 |
--[13] |
--[13] |
--[13] |
1 |
46.6 |
13 |
|
Raymond Chan |
-- |
45.5 |
-- |
-- |
1 |
45.5 |
14 |
|
Alan Leong |
44.8 |
--[13] |
--[13] |
--[13] |
1 |
44.8 |
15 |
|
Tam Yiu-chung |
43.1 |
--[13] |
--[13] |
--[13] |
1 |
43.1 |
16 |
|
Lee Cheuk-yan |
41.5 |
--[13] |
--[13] |
--[13] |
1 |
41.5 |
17 |
|
Albert Ho |
40.6 |
--[13] |
--[13] |
--[13] |
1 |
40.6 |
18 |
|
Yau Wai-ching |
--[13] |
37.4 |
--[13] |
--[13] |
1 |
37.4 |
19 |
|
Holden Chow |
--[13] |
36.7 |
-- |
-- |
1 |
36.7 |
20 |
|
Wong Yuk-man |
35.0 |
--[13] |
--[13] |
--[13] |
1 |
35.0 |
21 |
[11] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past four surveys.
[12] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
[13] Not a Legislative Councillor during the survey period.
[14] In two decimal places, the rating of Tanya Chan is 47.19 and that of Claudia Mo is 47.17.
The overall rankings in the past four surveys showed that among the current Legislative Councillors, only Regina Ip and Leung Kwok-hung have been on the list for four times, with average ratings of 48.0 and 37.9 marks respectively. Michael Tien, James To, Eddie Chu and Starry Lee have been on the list for three times attaining 54.6, 54.4, 54.1 and 46.0 marks on average. Tanya Chan, Claudia Mo, Nathan Law, Chiang Lai-wan and Lau Siu-lai have been on the list twice, with 47.2, 47.2, 42.2, 37.6 and 37.1 marks respectively. Jasper Tsang, Emily Lau, Raymond Chan, Alan Leong, Tam Yiu-chung, Lee Cheuk-yan, Albert Ho, Yau Wai-ching, Holden Chow and Wong Yuk-man have been on the list once, with 65.9, 46.6, 45.5, 44.8, 43.1, 41.5, 40.6, 37.4, 36.7 and 35.0 marks correspondingly.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from January 16 to 20, 2017, while this survey was conducted from April 10 to 12, 2017. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
10/4/17 |
The government announces Life Annuity Scheme. |
|
27/3/17 |
The police charge nine protesters of the Occupy Central movement. |
|
26/3/17 |
Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor is elected as the fifth Chief Executive of Hong Kong. |
|
21/3/17 |
The government reaches an agreement with MTR Corporation on the review of the fare adjustment mechanism. |
|
16/3/17 |
Three participants in Mong Kok Unrest are convicted of rioting. |
|
13/3/17 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying is elected the Vice-Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. |
|
9/3/17 |
The Wharf Holdings stops funding to i-Cable Communications. |
|
22/2/17 |
Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po announces the 2017-2018 Budget. |
|
23/1/17 |
The Education Bureau announces that the Territory-wide System Assessment will be extended to all primary schools. |
|
18/1/17 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying delivers the 2017 Policy Address. |
Commentary
Frank Wai-Kin Lee, Research Manager of POP, observed, “The latest survey of top 10 Legislative Councillors shows that compared to three months ago, in terms of familiarity, Nathan Law drops out of the ‘top 10’ list and is replaced by Michael Tien who re-enters the list since October last year. In terms of absolute ratings, out of the 9 Councillors in the ‘top 10’ list who were also rated last time, 4 have gone up, 5 have gone down. Among them, only the rise in Regina Ip’s rating has gone beyond sampling errors. In terms of relative rankings, Michael Tien re-enters the list to rank first. Eddie Chu continues to rank second. James To goes down two positions to rank third. Regina Ip and Claudia Mo switch their positions to rank fourth and fifth respectively. Tanya Chan goes down three positions to rank sixth. Starry Lee goes down one position to rank seventh. Chiang Lai-wan and Lau Siu-lai go up one position each to rank eighth and ninth. Leung Kwok-hung goes down two positions to rank tenth. It should be noted that our list of ‘top 10’ only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 58 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the ‘top 10’ list by design. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of these popularity ratings using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page.”
Future Release (Tentative)
