HKU POP releases survey on the popularity of cross-strait political figuresBack
Press Release on April 6, 2017
| Detailed Findings (Rating of the Top Ten Political Figures in Mainland China and Taiwan) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 119 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP conducted a double stage survey on the rankings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan in March, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to 7 months ago, the rankings of the top 10 cross-strait political figures have not changed much, and most ratings have risen. On the awareness level, Lee Teng-hui has re-entered the list to replace Li Peng, making our top 10 list a 6:4 split between Mainland and Taiwan figures. In terms of support rating, among the 9 figures who continue to stay on the list, 6 have risen while 3 have dropped. Among them, those of Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen have changed significantly, up by 5.8, 3.3, 3.2 marks and down by 4.8 marks respectively. As for the relative rankings, Zhu Rongji continues to rank first. Xi Jinping and Wen Jiabao swap positions to rank second and third. Li Keqiang and Ma Ying-jeou both go up one position to rank 4th and 5th. Hu Jintao drops two positions to rank 6th. Jiang Zemin and Tsai Ing-wen swap positions to rank 7th and 8th. Lee Teng-hui re-enters the list to rank 9th. Chen Shui-bian remains unchanged at the bottom. It should be noted that our list of ‘top 10 cross-strait political figures’ only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known. The maximum sampling error of all rating figures is +/-2.6 marks at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 71%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,073 successful interviews, not 1,073 x 72.4% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is other 1,002 successful interviews, not 1,002 x 70.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.6 at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases the latest findings of popularity of cross-strait political figures. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings [6] |
|
21-24/3/2017 (First stage naming survey) |
1,073 |
72.4% |
+/-3% |
|
27-30/3/2017 (Second stage rating survey) |
1,002 |
70.6% |
+/-2.6 |
[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
The research design of our “Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid-March. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou, Tsai Ing-wen, Hu Jintao and Li Keqiang were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in late March, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 political figures. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997. Recent ratings of the top political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
14-20/8/2015 |
21-24/3/2016 |
12-18/8/2016 |
27-30/3/2017 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample base |
569-657 |
553-639 |
529-676 |
537-702 |
-- |
|
|
Overall response rate |
64.0% |
67.2% |
71.7% |
70.6% |
-- |
|
|
Latest finding / Recognition rate |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error[7] |
Recognition rate |
-- |
|
Zhu Rongji |
66.9{1}[8] |
71.0{1}[8] |
69.1{1} |
70.8+/-2.0{1} |
82.8% |
+1.7 |
|
Xi Jinping |
61.9{3} |
61.3{3} |
59.7{3} |
65.5+/-2.2{2} |
91.3% |
+5.8[8] |
|
Wen Jiabao |
63.9{2} |
62.3{2} |
62.8{2} |
63.8+/-2.0{3} |
91.5% |
+1.0 |
|
Li Keqiang |
58.1{4} |
59.7{4} |
57.5{5} |
60.8+/-1.9{4} |
87.8% |
+3.3[8] |
|
Ma Ying-jeou |
52.9{6} |
55.0{6}[8] |
55.9{6} |
59.1+/-1.8{5} |
85.7% |
+3.2[8] |
|
Hu Jintao |
55.9{5}[8] |
59.4{5}[8] |
57.7{4} |
58.8+/-1.7{6} |
87.8% |
+1.1 |
|
Jiang Zemin |
43.8{8} |
49.4{7}[8] |
49.7{8} |
48.6+/-2.2{7} |
85.6% |
-1.1 |
|
Tsai Ing-wen |
48.5[8] [9] |
54.5[8] [9] |
52.9{7} |
48.1+/-2.1{8} |
85.3% |
-4.8[8] |
|
Lee Teng-hui |
37.8{9} |
42.0{8}[8] |
39.8 [9] |
42.4+/-2.6{9} |
73.6% |
+2.6 |
|
Chen Shui-bian |
23.6{10} |
24.2{10} |
25.7{10} |
25.0+/-2.0{10} |
88.9% |
-0.7 |
|
Lien Chan |
48.8{7} |
-- |
-- |
50.6+/-2.0[9] |
65.4% |
-- |
|
Zhang Dejiang |
-- |
50.6[9] |
-- |
49.0+/-2.4[9] |
69.2% |
-- |
|
Li Peng |
-- |
37.6{9} |
40.0{9} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Wang Qishan |
-- |
-- |
55.3 [9] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
James Soong |
45.7[9] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.6 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. {} Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not listed.
Latest survey revealed that, among the ten most well-known political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, in terms of popularity rating, Zhu Rongji ranked first, attaining 70.8 marks. The 2nd rank went to Xi Jinping with a score of 65.5 marks. Wen Jiabao, Li Keqiang, Ma Ying-jeou and Hu Jintao occupied the 3rd to 6th ranks with 63.8, 60.8, 59.1 and 58.8 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks fell to Jiang Zemin, Tsai Ing-wen, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian with respective scores of 48.6, 48.1, 42.4 and 25.0 marks. For this latest survey, Lien Chan and Zhang Dejiang obtained support ratings of 50.6 and 49.0 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political figures was 64.0 marks, while that for the top 10 was 54.3 marks. As for the overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past four surveys are tabulated as follows:
|
Date of survey |
14-20/8/2015 |
21-24/3/2016 |
12-18/8/2016 |
27-30/3/2017 |
No. of times on top 10 |
Average rating[10] |
Overall ranking[11] |
|
Zhu Rongji |
66.9 |
71.0 |
69.1 |
70.8 |
4 |
69.5 |
1 |
|
Wen Jiabao |
63.9 |
62.3 |
62.8 |
63.8 |
4 |
63.2 |
2 |
|
Xi Jinping |
61.9 |
61.3 |
59.7 |
65.5 |
4 |
62.1 |
3 |
|
Li Keqiang |
58.1 |
59.7 |
57.5 |
60.8 |
4 |
59.0 |
4 |
|
Hu Jintao |
55.9 |
59.4 |
57.7 |
58.8 |
4 |
57.9 |
5 |
|
Ma Ying-Jeou |
52.9 |
55.0 |
55.9 |
59.1 |
4 |
55.7 |
6 |
|
Jiang Zemin |
43.8 |
49.4 |
49.7 |
48.6 |
4 |
47.9 |
7 |
|
Chen Shui-bian |
23.6 |
24.2 |
25.7 |
25.0 |
4 |
24.6 |
8 |
|
Lee Teng-hui |
37.8 |
42.0 |
-- |
42.4 |
3 |
40.7 |
9 |
|
Tsai Ing-wen |
-- |
-- |
52.9 |
48.1 |
2 |
50.5 |
10 |
|
Li Peng |
-- |
37.6 |
40.0 |
-- |
2 |
38.8 |
11 |
|
Lien Chan |
48.8 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
48.8 |
12 |
[10] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by political figures over the past 18 months.
[11] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
The overall rankings in the past four surveys showed that eight political figures have been on the list for four times. Zhu Rongji ranked first, achieving an average rating of 69.5 marks, Wen Jiabao and Xi Jinping ranked 2nd to 3rd, attaining 63.2 and 62.1 marks correspondingly, Li Keqiang, Hu Jintao, Ma Ying-Jeou, Jiang Zemin and Chen Shui-bian who ranked 4th to 8th with respective scores of 59.0, 57.9, 55.7, 47.9 and 24.6 marks. Lee Teng-hui has been on the list three times, ranked the 9th with an average rating of 40.7 marks. Tsai Ing-wen and Li Peng have been on the list twice, ranked the 10th and 11th with respective scores of 50.5 and 38.8 marks. Lien Chan has been on the list once, ranked the 12th with a score of 48.8 marks.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from August 12 to 18, 2016 while the latest survey was conducted from March 27 to 30, 2017. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
26/3/17 |
Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor is elected as the fifth Chief Executive of Hong Kong. |
|
15/3/17 |
Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council, meets reporters from home and abroad at a news conference. |
|
13/3/17 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying is elected the Vice-Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. |
|
5/3/17 |
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivers the government work report 2017. |
|
4/3/17 |
Chairman of the National People’s Congress Zhang Dejiang delivers a speech on Hong Kong issues. |
|
3/3/17 |
The fifth session of the 12th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference begins. |
|
1/1/17 |
President Xi Jinping presents New Year greetings. |
|
30/12/16 |
Wang Guangya, Director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council, speaks out the four criteria for Chief Executive. |
|
23/12/16 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying meets with President Xi Jinping during his duty visit in Beijing. |
|
21/11/16 |
President Xi Jinping and Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying meet in Peru. |
|
20/11/16 |
APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting is held in Peru. |
|
9/11/16 |
Donald Trump becomes the 45th President of the United States. |
Commentary
Edward Chit-Fai Tai, Senior Data Analyst of POP, observed, “Compared to 7 months ago, the rankings of the top 10 cross-strait political figures have not changed much, and most ratings have risen. On the awareness level, Lee Teng-hui has re-entered the list to replace Li Peng, making our top 10 list a 6:4 split between Mainland and Taiwan figures. In terms of support rating, among the 9 figures who continue to stay on the list, 6 have risen while 3 have dropped. Among them, those of Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen have changed significantly, up by 5.8, 3.3, 3.2 marks and down by 4.8 marks respectively. As for the relative rankings, Zhu Rongji continues to rank first. Xi Jinping and Wen Jiabao swap positions to rank second and third. Li Keqiang and Ma Ying-jeou both go up one position to rank 4th and 5th. Hu Jintao drops two positions to rank 6th. Jiang Zemin and Tsai Ing-wen swap positions to rank 7th and 8th. Lee Teng-hui re-enters the list to rank 9th. Chen Shui-bian remains unchanged at the bottom. It should be noted that our list of ‘top 10 cross-strait political figures’ only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of different figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”
Future Release (Tentative)
