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Press Release on March 14, 2017

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying) | Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |

Special Announcements

1. The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong is conducting the Chief Executive Election Rolling Survey from March 1 to 24, 2017. The results are released via sponsoring organization “HK01” since March 6. Media reporting the findings should cite the names the researcher and sponsor(s) properly. All results and raw datasets are also released via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) starting March 7, with a time lag of one day.

2. Robert Chung the Director of POP has been publishing his article series “Chung’s Blunt Words: CE Election Series” in his online column “Chung’s Blunt Words” since March 10, until the end of the CE Election. Today he advises all CE candidates not to cling onto power, but simply concentrate on doing a good job for Hong Kong people in the next five and only five years. The article will be uploaded onto the facebook page named “Chung’s Blunt Words” (www.facebook.com/ChungsBluntWords) soon. The copyrights of all articles are open to the world, the media is welcome to re-publish the articles in full or in part, early or concurrent publication can also be arranged.

3. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” the raw data of all 117 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 118th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong people between 6 and 10 March, 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted in early March shows that the popularity rating of CE CY Leung has significantly decreased by 2.3 marks to 39.4 compared to two weeks ago, and still below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 77%, giving a net popularity of negative 59 percentage points, which is down by 4 percentage points from late February to his record low since he assumed office in 2012. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 52.5 marks. His approval rate is 28%, disapproval rate 15%, giving a net popularity of positive 13 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 38.0 marks, approval rate 21%, disapproval rate 44%, thus a net popularity of negative 24 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 44.4 marks, approval rate 27%, disapproval rate 34%, giving a net popularity of negative 7 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating and approval rate, Matthew Cheung is currently the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 2 among 13 Directors have gone up, while nine have gone down and two remain unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung and Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung register significant changes in their net approval rates, down by 11, 8, 7 and 5 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Nicholas Yang, Lau Kong-wah and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 1, 28 and 56 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 76 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Ceajer Chan falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Gregory So, Anthony Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen, Paul Chan and Lau Kong-wah can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Matthew Cheung, Nicholas Yang, Stephen Sui, Clement Cheung and Eric Ma can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. No one falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while CY Leung and Eddie Ng fall into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 70%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee, reprints the abstracts of two articles written by Director of POP, Robert Chung, before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 69.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:

[8] This survey was the Policy Address instant survey.

[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

[11] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. The survey conducted on 22/2/2017 was the Budget instant survey and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.

[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[13] Matthew Cheung and Paul Chan were appointed Chief Secretary for Administration and Financial Secretary respectively by the Central Government on January 16, 2017.

[14] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

[15] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

[16] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[17] Eric Ma and Stephen Sui were appointed Acting Secretary for Development and Acting Secretary for Labour and Welfare on January 16, 2017, and were then further appointed by the Central Government on February 13.

[18] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[19] Based on the figures in early February, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung and Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok were 15.8 and 15.6 percentage points. Thus, they were ranked fifth and sixth at that time.

[20] Based on the figures in early February, in two decimal places, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So were 15.32 and 15.28 percentage points. Thus, they were ranked seventh and eighth at that time.

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 39.4 marks, and 19% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 59 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Matthew Cheung, FS Paul Chan and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 52.5, 38.0 and 44.4 marks, and 28%, 21% and 27% would vote for their reappointments correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 13, negative 24 and negative 7 percentage points respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 76 percentage points. The 2nd place belongs to Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, with a net approval rate of positive 43 percentage points. Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Stephen Sui, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Development Eric Ma, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Education Eddie Ng ranked 3rd to 13th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 17, positive 16, positive 15, positive 11, positive 10, positive 9, positive 5, positive 1, negative 1, negative 28 and negative 56 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from 24 July, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 6 to 9 February, 2017 while this survey was conducted from 6 to 10 March, 2017. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.

Our latest survey conducted in early March shows that the popularity rating of CE CY Leung has significantly decreased by 2.3 marks to 39.4 compared to two weeks ago, and still below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 77%, giving a net popularity of negative 59 percentage points, which is down by 4 percentage points from late February to his record low since he assumed office in 2012.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 52.5 marks. His approval rate is 28%, disapproval rate 15%, giving a net popularity of positive 13 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 38.0 marks, approval rate 21%, disapproval rate 44%, thus a net popularity of negative 24 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 44.4 marks, approval rate 27%, disapproval rate 34%, giving a net popularity of negative 7 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating and approval rate, Matthew Cheung is currently the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 2 among 13 Directors have gone up, while nine have gone down and two remain unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung and Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung register significant changes in their net approval rates, down by 11, 8, 7 and 5 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Nicholas Yang, Lau Kong-wah and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 1, 28 and 56 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 76 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Ceajer Chan falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Gregory So, Anthony Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen, Paul Chan and Lau Kong-wah can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Matthew Cheung, Nicholas Yang, Stephen Sui, Clement Cheung and Eric Ma can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. No one falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while CY Leung and Eddie Ng fall into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:

[21] In two decimal places, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing are 36.23% and 35.67%.

Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, I reprint again the abstracts of two articles written by Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”

Future Release (Tentative)

March 21, 2017 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Second Budget follow-up survey

No. of hits since Jun 3, 2000: 81,049,089

No. of hits since Jan 1, 2018: 187,141

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Everything carried in this website does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles and messages posted at the opinion platforms. Any responsibility, legal and otherwise, arising from any such item shall vest entirely with its author. The intellectual property of all information contained in this website, including questionnaire design and research reports, originally belongs to HKU POP unless specified otherwise. HKU POP opens their copyright to the world via this website, but would request all users to acknowledge their source properly.

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Last update :  26/6/2019