HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of Executive CouncillorsBack
Press Release on March 9, 2017
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Executive Councillors) |
Special Announcements
1. The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong is conducting the Chief Executive Election Rolling Survey from March 1 to 24, 2017. The results are released via sponsoring organization “HK01” since March 6. Media reporting the findings should cite the names the researcher and sponsor(s) properly. All results and raw datasets are also released via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) starting March 7, with a time lag of one day.
2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” the raw data of all 117 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP conducted a double stage survey on the ratings of Executive Councillors from late February to early March, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that compared to half a year ago, only Regina Ip, who recently resigned, was replaced by newly appointed Tommy Cheung on the “top 5” list across two surveys. Among the four Councillors who remain on the list, the ratings of Fanny Law and Arthur Li increased while those of Lam Woon-kwong and Cheng Yiu-tong dropped, but only the ratings of Fanny Law and Lam Woon-kwong have changed beyond sampling error. In terms of absolute ratings, only Lam Woon-kwong on the “top 5” list scores more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Lam Woon-kwong continues to rank the first, Fanny Law goes up two positions to occupy the second place, Cheng Yiu-tong continues to rank the third, Tommy Cheung enters the list for the first time and ranks the fourth, while Arthur Li continues to rank the fifth. It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 5” only includes non-official Councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other Councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known Councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figures is below +/-2.6 marks. The response rate of the rating survey is 72%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey on top 5 Executive Councillors is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 70.8% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,027 successful interviews, not 1,027 x 71.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of Executive Councillors. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:
|
Date of survey |
Overall
|
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error
|
|
20-24/2/2017 (First stage naming survey) |
1,006 |
70.8% |
+/-4% |
|
1-5/3/2017 (Second stage rating survey) |
1,027 |
71.7% |
+/-2.6 |
[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
The research design of our “Top 5 Executive Councillors” is similar to that of our “Top 10” series, it is explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our web page. From 2015 onwards, this survey series is changed from three times per year to twice per year. The top Councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in late February. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Latest findings of the naming survey are as follows:
|
Date of survey |
2-5/3/15 |
21-27/8/15 |
19-26/2/16 |
5-8/9/16 |
20-24/2/17 |
Latest Change in Ranking |
|
Sample base |
1,000 |
1,005 |
1,006 |
1,001 |
1,006 [7] |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
67.2% |
65.1% |
67.7% |
73.5% |
70.8% |
-- |
|
Finding / Error |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [7] |
-- |
|
Lam Woon-kwong |
12%{2} |
5%{4} |
7%{3} |
4%{4} |
8+/-2%{1} |
↑3 |
|
Bernard Chan |
2%{9} |
3%{6} |
2%{8} |
3%{6} |
5+/-2%{2} |
↑4 |
|
Fanny Law |
8%{4} |
5%{5} |
4%{5} |
4%{3} |
4+/-2%{3} |
-- |
|
Arthur Li |
2%{7} |
6%{3} |
6%{4} |
4%{2} |
3+/-1%{4} |
↓2 |
|
Tommy Cheung |
--[8] |
--[8] |
--[8] |
--[8] |
2+/-1%{5}[9] |
-- |
|
Cheng Yiu-tong |
2%{8} |
3%{7} |
2%{7} |
3%{5} |
2+/-1%{6}[9] |
↓1 |
|
Ip Kwok-him |
--[8] |
--[8] |
--[8] |
1%{8} |
2+/-1%{7}[9] |
↑1 |
|
Jeffrey Lam |
<1%{14} |
2%{9} |
1%{10} |
<1%{12} |
2+/-1%{8}[9] |
↑4 |
|
Laura Cha |
<1%{12} |
1%{10} |
1%{11} |
1%{9} |
1+/-1%{9}[10] |
-- |
|
Martin Liao |
--[8] |
--[8] |
--[8] |
--[8] |
1+/-1%{10}[10] |
-- |
|
Cheung Chi-kong |
3%{5} |
2%{8} |
3%{6} |
2%{7} |
1+/-1%{11}[10] |
↓4 |
|
Chow Chung-kong |
<1%{13} |
<1%{13} |
<1%{14} |
<1%{14} |
1+/-1%{12}[10] |
↑2 |
|
Anna Wu |
2%{6} |
1%{11} |
1%{9} |
<1%{11} |
<1+/-1%{13}[11] |
↓2 |
|
Cheung Hok-ming |
<1%{15} |
0%{15} |
1%{13} |
1%{10} |
<1+/-1%{14}[11] |
↓4 |
|
Andrew Liao |
1%{11} |
<1%{12} |
1%{12} |
<1%{13} |
<1+/-1%{15}[11] |
↓2 |
|
Regina Ip |
25%{1} |
20%{1} |
18%{1} |
17%{1} |
--[8] |
-- |
|
Starry Lee |
9%{3} |
14%{2} |
8%{2} |
--[8] |
--[8] |
-- |
|
Nicholas Yang |
1%{10} |
0%{15} |
--[8] |
--[8] |
--[8] |
-- |
|
Wrong answer |
14% |
15% |
14% |
17% |
26+/-4% |
-- |
|
Don’t know/hard to say |
60% |
61% |
65% |
66% |
65+/-4% |
-- |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level”, meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings in our naming survey. Councillors with the same recognition rate will be ranked according to the decimal place of the corresponding percentages. Please refer to the POP Site for detailed figures of the previous surveys. The error margin of previous surveys can also be found at the POP Site. The sub-sample size for this survey is 566.
[8] Not a non-official Executive Councillor during the survey period.
[9] The percentages of respondents who could name Tommy Cheung, Cheng Yiu-tong, Ip Kwok-him and Jeffrey Lam were 2.28%, 2.27%, 1.9% and 1.5% respectively, so they ranked 5th to 8th respectively.
[10] The percentages of respondents who could name Laura Cha, Martin Liao, Cheung Chi-kong and Chow Chung-kong were 1.0%, 0.87%, 0.86% and 0.6% respectively, so they ranked 5th to 8th respectively.
[11] The percentages of respondents who could name Anna Wu, Cheung Hok-ming and Andrew Liao were 0.15%, 0.10% and 0.09% respectively, so they ranked 5th to 8th respectively.
The naming survey conducted in the second half of February showed that Lam Woon-kwong was named most frequently with a recognition rate of 8%. Bernard Chan, Fanny Law, Arthur Li, Tommy Cheung and Cheng Yiu-tong had recognition rates of 5%, 4%, 3%, 2% and 2%, and were ranked the 2nd to 6th. However, 26% made a wrong attempt at citing Executive Councillors (non-official) while 65% had no clue.
The 6 Councillors who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in early March, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed Councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 Councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
9-12/3/15 |
28/8-3/9/15 |
29/2-3/3/16 |
12-14/9/16 |
1-5/3/17 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample base |
546-667 |
618-707 |
567-640 |
584-624 |
563-704 |
-- |
|
|
Overall response rate |
68.6% |
66.9% |
67.7% |
70.2% |
71.7% |
-- |
|
|
Finding / Recognition rate |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error [12] |
Recognition
|
-- |
|
Lam Woon-kwong |
54.9{1}[14] |
54.3{1} |
53.1{1} |
55.6{1}[14] |
51.2+/-1.9{1} |
76.2% |
-4.4[14] |
|
Fanny Law |
41.8{5} |
39.6{4} |
43.5{4}[14] |
40.6{4}[14] |
44.4+/-2.3{2} |
85.6% |
+3.8[14] |
|
Cheng Yiu-tong |
-- |
-- |
-- |
44.4{3} |
42.2+/-2.6{3} |
70.0% |
-2.2 |
|
Tommy Cheung |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
40.5+/-2.2{4} |
70.1% |
-- |
|
Arthur Li |
-- |
38.8{5} |
40.3{5} |
37.3{5}[14] |
39.4+/-2.2{5} |
79.8% |
+2.1 |
|
Bernard Chan |
-- |
54.9[13] |
-- |
54.6[13] |
50.8+/-2.4[13] |
62.5% |
-3.8[14] |
|
Regina Ip |
46.3{3}[14] |
48.1{2} |
49.0{2} |
49.4{2} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Starry Lee |
42.6{4} |
42.3{3} |
44.2{3} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Cheung Chi-kong |
42.8[13] |
-- |
43.0[13] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Anna Wu |
47.4{2} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level”, meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.6 marks at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[13] Recognition rate fell outside top 5 during rating stage, so per poll rating and related changes are presented only for rough reference and not counted in yearly average.
[14] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
The latest rating survey conducted in early March showed that Lam Woon-kwong was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 51.2 marks. The 2nd went to Fanny Law with 44.4 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Cheng Yiu-tong, Tommy Cheung and Arthur Li with 42.2, 40.5 and 39.4 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 43.5 marks. For this latest survey, Bernard Chan obtained a support rating of 50.8 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past four surveys are tabulated as follows:
|
Date of survey |
28/8-3/9/15 |
29/2-3/3/16 |
12-14/9/16 |
1-5/3/17 |
No. of times on top 5 |
Average rating [15] |
Overall ranking [16] |
|
Lam Woon-kwong |
54.3 |
53.1 |
55.6 |
51.2 |
4 |
53.5 |
1 |
|
Fanny Law |
39.6 |
43.5 |
40.6 |
44.4 |
4 |
42.0 |
2 |
|
Arthur Li |
38.8 |
40.3 |
37.3 |
39.4 |
4 |
39.0 |
3 |
|
Regina Ip |
48.1 |
49.0 |
49.4 |
-- |
3 |
48.8 |
4 |
|
Cheng Yiu-tong |
-- |
-- |
44.4 |
42.2 |
2 |
43.3 |
5 |
|
Starry Lee |
42.3 |
44.2 |
--[17] |
-- |
2 |
43.2 |
6 |
|
Tommy Cheung |
--[17] |
--[17] |
--[17] |
40.5 |
1 |
40.5 |
7 |
[15] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
[16] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 5, and then their average ratings.
[17] Not a non-official Executive Councillor during the survey period.
The overall rankings in the past four surveys showed that three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. Lam Woon-kwong, Fanny Law and Arthur Li ranked 1st to 3rd places respectively and achieved average ratings of 53.5, 42.0 and 39.0 marks. Regina Ip, who has already resigned, has been on the list for three times with an average rating of 48.8 marks, ranked the 4th. Cheng Yiu-tong and Starry Lee, who has also resigned, have been on the list twice with average ratings of 43.3 and 43.2 marks, ranked at the 5th and 6th places respectively. Tommy Cheung has been on the list once with a rating of 40.5, ranked the 7th.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP SITE”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from September 12 to 14, 2016 while the latest survey was conducted from March 1 to 5, 2017. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
4/3/17 |
Chairman of the National People's Congress Zhang Dejiang delivers a speech on Hong Kong issues. |
|
1/3/17 |
The nomination period for the Chief Executive election ends. |
|
23/2/17 |
The Development Bureau announces new land sale programme which will launch 28 residential sites and provide more than ten thousands flats. |
|
22/2/17 |
Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po announces the 2017-2018 Budget. |
|
23/1/17 |
The Education Bureau announces that the Territory-wide System Assessment will be extended to all primary schools. |
|
18/1/17 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying delivers the 2017 Policy Address. |
|
5/1/17 |
West Kowloon Cultural District Authority announces to launch a six-week public consultation of Palace Museum on its design and operation. |
|
3/1/17 |
Hong Kong and Shenzhen agree to jointly develop Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovation and Technology Park in Lok Ma Chau Loop. |
|
9/12/16 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying announces he will not seek re-election. |
|
5/12/16 |
Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect is launched. |
|
2/12/16 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying and Secretary for Justice Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung apply for judicial review on the qualifications of lawmakers Lau Siu-lai, Edward Yiu Chung-yim, Nathan Law Kwun-chung and Leung Kwok-hung. |
|
15/11/16 |
The High Court rules that Youngspiration’s Leung Chung-hang and Yau Wai-ching are disqualified as legislators. |
|
7/11/16 |
The National People’s Congress passes the interpretation of Article 104 of the Basic Law. |
|
4/11/16 |
The government announces that second-home buyers will be subjected to a standardized 15% stamp duty. |
Commentary
Frank Wai-Kin Lee, Research Manager of POP, observed, “The latest ‘top 5 Executive Councillors’ survey shows that compared to half a year ago, only Regina Ip, who recently resigned, was replaced by newly appointed Tommy Cheung on the ‘top 5’ list across two surveys. Among the four Councillors who remain on the list, the ratings of Fanny Law and Arthur Li increased while those of Lam Woon-kwong and Cheng Yiu-tong dropped, but only the ratings of Fanny Law and Lam Woon-kwong have changed beyond sampling error. In terms of absolute ratings, only Lam Woon-kwong on the ‘top 5’ list scores more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Lam Woon-kwong continues to rank the first, Fanny Law goes up two positions to occupy the second place, Cheng Yiu-tong continues to rank the third, Tommy Cheung enters the list for the first time and ranks the fourth, while Arthur Li continues to rank the fifth. It should be noted, however, that our list of ‘top 5’ only includes non-official Councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other Councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known Councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the ‘Opinion Daily’ of our POP Site.”
Future Release (Tentative)
