HKU POP releases the latest survey on Taiwan issuesBack

Press Release on March 8, 2016

| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Independence of Taiwan) |
| Detailed Findings (Confidence in Cross-strait Reunification) |
| Detailed Findings ( Opinion on Applicability of "One Country, Two Systems" to Taiwan) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Taiwan's Rejoining the United Nations) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Independence of Tibet) |

Special Announcement s

1. The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong is conducting the Chief Executive Election Rolling Survey from March 1 to 24, 2017. The results are released via sponsoring organization “HK01” since March 6. Media reporting the findings should cite the names the researcher and sponsor(s) properly. All results and raw datasets are also released via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) starting March 7, with a time lag of one day.

2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” the raw data of all 117 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,027 Hong Kong people between March 1 and 5, 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people who oppose to the independence of Taiwan continue to outnumber those who support it. The opposition rate significantly increases 17 percentage points to 61%, resulting in a significant drop of the net support to negative 36 percentage points, basically back to the level registered in early 2012. People’s opposition rate for Taiwan rejoining the UN significantly increases 9 percentage points to 36%, narrowing the gap between positive and negative views. The latest net support stands at positive 10 percentage points. In general, although Hong Kong people object to the independence of Taiwan, they tend to support giving Taiwan more international space. Meanwhile, the net value of those who believed “one country, two systems” should be applicable to Taiwan increases from negative 15 to negative 8 percentage points. Besides, people continue to be pessimistic about cross-strait reunification, and its net confidence remains at negative 29 percentage points. Yet the confident percentage has increased significantly by 5 percentage points to 31%. Further analysis shows that the older the people, the more they oppose Taiwan’s independence, while the younger the more pessimistic about cross-strait reunification. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 72%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,027 successful interviews, not 1,027 x 71.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8%”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest findings on various Taiwan issues. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
1-5/3/2017	1,027	71.7%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Latest people’s views towards various Taiwan issues are summarized below:

Date of survey^[⁷^]	9-12/3/15	7-13/8/15	29/2-3/3/16	1-4/8/16	*1-5/3/17*	*Latest Change*
Total sample size^[⁷^]	1,024	1,002	1,004	1,008	*1,0* 27	--
Overall response rate	68.6%	64.1%	67.7%	71.0%	*71.7%*	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error^[* ⁸ ^]	--
Taiwan independence: Support rate	33%	29%	35%^[9]	29%^[9]	*25+/-3%*	*-4%^[9]*
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate	53%	50%	52%	44%^[9]	61 *+/-4%*	*+17%^[9]*
Net support	-20%	-21%	-17%	-15%	- *36+/-7%*	*-21%^[9]*
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate	49%	47%	47%	41%^[9]	45 *+/-4%*	*+4%*
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate	34%	26%^[9]	30%	27%	36 *+/-4%*	*+9%^[9]*
Net support	16%	21%	18%	14%	*10+/-7%*	*-4%*
Believed ‘one country, two systems’ was applicable to Taiwan	30%	34%	33%	31%	39 *+/-4%*	+8 *%^[9]*
Believed ‘one country, two systems’ was not applicable to Taiwan	58%^[9]	49%^[9]	52%	46%^[9]	47 *+/-4%*	*+1%*
Net value of applicability	-28%^[9]	-15%^[9]	-19%	-15%	*-8+/-7%*	*+7%*
Confidence in cross-strait reunification	29%	26%	28%	26%	31 *+/-4%*	*+5%^[9]*
No confidence in cross-strait reunification	59%	57%	56%	55%	59 *+/-4%*	*+4%*
Net confidence	-31%^[9]	-31%	-28%	-29%	*-29* *+/-8%*	--

[7] Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 535 to 674, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated. Since 2012, the frequency of surveys has reduced from once every 3 months to half-yearly.

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8%” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 61% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas 25% showed support, with net support at negative 36 percentage points. Besides, 45% supported the rejoining the United Nations of Taiwan while 36% opposed, with net support at positive 10 percentage points. As for the applicability of “one country, two systems” to Taiwan, 39% gave a positive view while 47% gave a negative answer, with net value of applicability at negative 8 percentage points. Finally, 31% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 59% expressed no confidence, with net confidence at negative 29 percentage points.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ view on the Taiwan independence issue and confidence in cross-strait reunification by age:

Date of survey: 1-5/3/2017		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
View on the Taiwan independence issue^[1 ⁰^]	Support	53+/-10% (51)	26+/-6% (64)	16+/-4% (47)	25+/-3% (161)
	Oppose	40+/-10% (38)	59+/-6% (143)	70+/-5% (212)	62+/-4% (392)
	Don’t know / hard to say	7+/-5% (7)	15+/-5% (35)	14+/-4% (42)	13+/-3% (84)
	Total	100% (96)	100% (241)	100% (300)	100% (638)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 1-5/3/2017		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Confidence in cross-strait reunification^[1 ¹^]	Yes	15+/-7% (14)	24+/-6% (45)	42+/-6% (105)	31+/-4% (163)
	No	79 +/- 8 % ( 73 )	71+/-7% (134)	43+/-6% (108)	59+/-4% (316)
	Don’t know / hard to say	6+/-5% (5)	5+/-3% (9)	15+/-5% (38)	10+/-3% (52)
	Total	100% (92)	100% (188)	100% (251)	100% (531)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from August 1 to 4, 2016, while this survey was conducted from March 1 to 5, 2017. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

5/3/17	Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivers the government work report 2017.
3/3/17	The fifth session of the 12th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference begins.
5/12/16	Media reports on the launch of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
20/11/16	APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting is held in Peru.
13/11/16	Anti-Hong Kong Independence Alliance organizes a rally in Admiralty.
9/11/16	Donald Trump becomes the 45th President of the United States.
7/11/16	The National People’s Congress passes the interpretation of Article 104 of the Basic Law.
22/10/16	Youngspiration’s Leung Chung-hang and Yau Wai-ching attend a seminar in Taiwan.
13/10/16	Media reports on the issue of Legislative Council Oath.
28/9/16	Hong Kong goes down two positions to rank ninth in Global Competitiveness Index.

Commentary

Frank Wai-Kin Lee, Research Manager of POP, observed, “Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people who oppose to the independence of Taiwan continue to outnumber those who support it. The opposition rate significantly increases 17 percentage points to 61%, resulting in a significant drop of the net support to negative 36 percentage points, basically back to the level registered in early 2012. People’s opposition rate for Taiwan rejoining the UN significantly increases 9 percentage points to 36%, narrowing the gap between positive and negative views. The latest net support stands at positive 10 percentage points. In general, although Hong Kong people object to the independence of Taiwan, they tend to support giving Taiwan more international space. Meanwhile, the net value of those who believed ‘one country, two systems’ should be applicable to Taiwan increases from negative 15 to negative 8 percentage points. Besides, people continue to be pessimistic about cross-strait reunification, and its net confidence remains at negative 29 percentage points. Yet the confident percentage has increased significantly by 5 percentage points to 31%. Further analysis shows that the older the people, the more they oppose Taiwan’s independence, while the younger the more pessimistic about cross-strait reunification. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

March 9, 2017 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 5 Executive Councillors

March 14, 2017 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials