HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack
Press Release on February 14, 2017
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying) | Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 115 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 116th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,029 Hong Kong people between 6 and 9 February, 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted in early February shows that the popularity rating of CE CY Leung has slightly decreased by 1.8 marks to 40.8 compared to two weeks ago, still below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 23%, disapproval rate 71%, giving a net popularity of negative 48 percentage points, significantly increased by 7 percentage points from late January. His overall popularity has basically returned to the level registered before the Policy Address was launched in early January. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of newly appointed CS Matthew Cheung is 50.4 marks. His approval rate is 29%, disapproval rate 17%, giving a net popularity of positive 12 percentage points. The support rating of newly appointed FS Paul Chan is 34.0 marks, approval rate 17%, disapproval rate 46%, thus a net popularity of negative 29 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 45.5 marks, approval rate 31%, disapproval rate 34%, giving a net popularity of negative 2 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating and approval rate, Matthew Cheung is the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, excluding the newly appointed Secretary for Labour and Welfare Stephen Sui and Secretary for Development Eric Ma, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 9 among 11 Directors have gone up, while one has gone down and one remains unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok and Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang register significant changes in their net approval rates, up by 10, 10, 9, 8, 8 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Nicholas Yang, Lau Kong-wah and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 1, 23 and 48 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 73 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Ceajer Chan falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Anthony Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Gregory So, Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen, Lau Kong-wah and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Matthew Cheung, Clement Cheung, Stephen Sui, Nicholas Yang and Eric Ma can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Eddie Ng falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while CY Leung falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 70%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee, reprints the abstracts of two articles written by Director of POP, Robert Chung, before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,029 successful interviews, not 1,029 x 70.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
6-9/2/2017 |
1,029 |
70.5% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
|
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[7] (maximum values) |
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[7] (maximum values) |
|
1,300 |
+/- 2.8% |
1,350 |
+/- 2.7% |
|
1,200 |
+/- 2.9% |
1,250 |
+/- 2.8% |
|
1,100 |
+/- 3.0% |
1,150 |
+/- 3.0% |
|
1,000 |
+/- 3.2% |
1,050 |
+/- 3.1% |
|
900 |
+/- 3.3% |
950 |
+/- 3.2% |
|
800 |
+/- 3.5% |
850 |
+/- 3.4% |
|
700 |
+/- 3.8% |
750 |
+/- 3.7% |
|
600 |
+/- 4.1% |
650 |
+/- 3.9% |
|
500 |
+/- 4.5% |
550 |
+/- 4.3% |
|
400 |
+/- 5.0% |
450 |
+/- 4.7% |
[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.
Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
2-8/12/16 |
19-22/12/16 |
3-5/1/17 |
18/1/17 [8] |
19-24/1/17 |
6-9/2/17 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
1,008 |
1,009 |
1,004 |
664 |
1,002 |
1,029 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
69.2% |
70.9% |
56.7% |
67.1% |
69.5% |
70.5% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error [9] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE CY Leung |
35.0[10] |
39.0[10] |
41.3[10] |
41.7 |
42.6 |
40.8+/-1.8 |
-1.8 |
|
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung |
17%[10] |
21%[10] |
23% |
18%[10] |
20% |
23+/-3% |
+3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung |
71%[10] |
74% |
67%[10] |
75%[10] |
75% |
71+/-3% |
-4%[10] |
|
Net approval rate |
-54%[10] |
-53% |
-44%[10] |
-57%[10] |
-55% |
-48+/-5% |
+7%[10] |
[8] This survey was the Policy Address instant survey.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
|
Date of survey |
5-8/9/16 |
3-6/10/16 |
7-10/11/16 |
2-8/12/16 |
3-5/1/17 |
6-9/2/17 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base[11] |
544-636 |
562-639 |
538-603 |
573-630 |
544-641 |
615-664 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
73.5% |
72.7% |
71.2% |
69.2% |
56.7% |
70.5% |
-- |
|
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [12] |
-- |
|
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung[13] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
50.4+/-1.9 |
-- |
|
Vote of confidence in
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
29+/-4% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in
|
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
17+/-3% |
-- |
|
Net approval rate[13] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
12+/-5% |
-- |
|
Rating of FS Paul Chan[13] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
34.0+/-2.1 |
-- |
|
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan[13] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
17+/-3% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan[13] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
46+/-4% |
-- |
|
Net approval rate[13] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-29+/-6% |
-- |
|
Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen |
45.7 |
47.8 |
45.4 |
41.1[14] |
41.6 |
45.5+/-2.3 |
+3.9[14] |
|
Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
30% |
30% |
33% |
24%[14] |
27% |
31+/-4% |
+4% |
|
Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
31% |
24%[14] |
29%[14] |
32% |
35% |
34+/-4% |
-1% |
|
Net approval rate |
-1% |
6%[14] |
3% |
-8%[14] |
-8% |
-2+/-7% |
+6% |
[11] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[13] Matthew Cheung and Paul Chan were appointed Chief Secretary for Administration and Financial Secretary respectively by the Central Government on January 16, 2017.
[14] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:
|
Date of survey |
2-8/12/16 |
3-5/1/17 |
6-9/2/17 |
Latest change |
|||
|
Sample base [15] |
571-633 |
570-646 |
596-634 |
-- |
|||
|
Overall response rate |
69.2% |
56.7% |
70.5% |
-- |
|||
|
Sample base for each question /
|
Base |
% |
Base |
% |
Base |
% &
|
-- |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man |
595 |
78% |
601 |
78% |
631 |
77+/-3% |
-1% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man |
595 |
5% |
601 |
5% |
631 |
5+/-2% |
-- |
|
Net approval rate |
595 |
73% |
601 |
73% |
631 |
73+/-4% |
-- |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan |
610 |
42% |
570 |
46% |
620 |
52+/-4% |
+6%[18] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan |
610 |
9% |
570 |
8% |
620 |
5+/-2% |
-3%[18] |
|
Net approval rate |
610 |
33% |
570 |
37% |
620 |
47+/-5% |
+10%[18] |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung |
601 |
35% |
613 |
37% |
631 |
43+/-4% |
+6%[18] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung |
601 |
24% |
613 |
23% |
631 |
20+/-3% |
-3% |
|
Net approval rate |
601 |
11% |
613 |
14% |
631 |
22+/-6% |
+8%[18] |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
608 |
29% |
646 |
33% |
605 |
35+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
608 |
19% |
646 |
21% |
605 |
15+/-3% |
-6%[18] |
|
Net approval rate |
608 |
10% |
646 |
11% |
605 |
21+/-6% |
+10%[18] |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung |
604 |
17% |
616 |
23%[18] |
634 |
22+/-3% |
-1% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung |
604 |
8% |
616 |
10% |
634 |
7+/-2% |
-3%[18] |
|
Net approval rate |
604 |
8% |
616 |
13% |
634 |
16+/-4%[19] |
+3% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok |
571 |
38% |
591 |
36% |
609 |
39+/-4% |
+3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok |
571 |
28% |
591 |
28% |
609 |
24+/-3% |
-4%[18] |
|
Net approval rate |
571 |
10% |
591 |
8% |
609 |
16+/-6%[19] |
+8%[18] |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam |
600 |
29%[18] |
583 |
32% |
608 |
34+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam |
600 |
20% |
583 |
22% |
608 |
19+/-3% |
-3% |
|
Net approval rate |
600 |
9%[18] |
583 |
9% |
608 |
15+/-6%[20] |
+6% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So |
625 |
31% |
622 |
32% |
596 |
38+/-4% |
+6%[18] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So |
625 |
23% |
622 |
26% |
596 |
23+/-3% |
-3% |
|
Net approval rate |
625 |
8% |
622 |
6% |
596 |
15+/-6%[20] |
+9%[18] |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Stephen Sui[17] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
598 |
22+/-4% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Stephen Sui[17] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
598 |
10+/-3% |
-- |
|
Net approval rate[17] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
598 |
12+/-5% |
-- |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Eric Ma [17] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
616 |
17+/-3% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Eric Ma[17] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
616 |
15+/-3% |
-- |
|
Net approval rate[17] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
616 |
1+/-5% |
-- |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang |
606 |
19% |
607 |
19% |
615 |
22+/-3% |
+3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang |
606 |
23% |
607 |
28%[18] |
615 |
23+/-3% |
-5%[18] |
|
Net approval rate |
606 |
-4% |
607 |
-9% |
615 |
-1+/-6% |
+8%[18] |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah |
582 |
16%[18] |
589 |
23%[18] |
607 |
23+/-3% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah |
582 |
45%[18] |
589 |
44% |
607 |
45+/-4% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate |
582 |
-28%[18] |
589 |
-21% |
607 |
-23+/-6% |
-2% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng |
633 |
16% |
630 |
10%[18] |
620 |
15+/-3% |
+5%[18] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng |
633 |
55%[18] |
630 |
64%[18] |
620 |
63+/-4% |
-1% |
|
Net approval rate |
633 |
-39% |
630 |
-54%[18] |
620 |
-48+/-6% |
+6% |
[15] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[16] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[17] Eric Ma and Stephen Sui were appointed Acting Secretary for Development and Acting Secretary for Labour and Welfare on January 16, 2017, and were then further appointed by the Central Government on February 13.
[18] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[19] In one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung and Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok are 15.8 and 15.6 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked fifth and sixth.
[20] In two decimal places, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So are 15.32 and 15.28 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked seventh and eighth.
The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 40.8 marks, and 23% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 48 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Matthew Cheung, FS Paul Chan and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 50.4, 34.0 and 45.5 marks, and 29%, 17% and 31% would vote for their reappointments correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 12, negative 29 and negative 2 percentage points respectively.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 73 percentage points. The 2nd place belongs to Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, with a net approval rate of positive 47 percentage points. Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Stephen Sui, Secretary for Development Eric Ma, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Education Eddie Ng ranked 3rd to 13th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 22, positive 21, positive 16, positive 16, positive 15, positive 15, positive 12, positive 1, negative 1, negative 23 and negative 48 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from 24 July, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 3 to 5 January, 2017 while this survey was conducted from 6 to 9 February, 2017. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
6/2/17 |
Chief Executive candidate John Tsang Chun-wah announces his election platform. |
|
3/2/17 |
Chief Executive candidate Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor holds a sharing session. |
|
23/1/17 |
The Education Bureau announces that the Territory-wide System Assessment will be extended to all primary schools. |
|
19/1/17 |
John Tsang Chun-wah announces that he will run for Chief Executive. |
|
18/1/17 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying delivers the 2017 Policy Address. |
|
16/1/17 |
The State Council approves resignations of Chief Secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor and Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah. |
|
12/1/17 |
Chief Secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor announces her resignation and plans to run for Chief Executive. |
|
5/1/17 |
West Kowloon Cultural District Authority announces to launch a six-week public consultation of Palace Museum on its design and operation. |
|
3/1/17 |
Hong Kong and Shenzhen agree to jointly develop Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovation and Technology Park in Lok Ma Chau Loop. |
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.
Our latest survey conducted in early February shows that the popularity rating of CE CY Leung has slightly decreased by 1.8 marks to 40.8 compared to two weeks ago, still below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 23%, disapproval rate 71%, giving a net popularity of negative 48 percentage points, significantly increased by 7 percentage points from late January. His overall popularity has basically returned to the level registered before the Policy Address was launched in early January.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of newly appointed CS Matthew Cheung is 50.4 marks. His approval rate is 29%, disapproval rate 17%, giving a net popularity of positive 12 percentage points. The support rating of newly appointed FS Paul Chan is 34.0 marks, approval rate 17%, disapproval rate 46%, thus a net popularity of negative 29 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 45.5 marks, approval rate 31%, disapproval rate 34%, giving a net popularity of negative 2 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating and approval rate, Matthew Cheung is the most popular Secretary of Department.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, excluding the newly appointed Secretary for Labour and Welfare Stephen Sui and Secretary for Development Eric Ma, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 9 among 11 Directors have gone up, while one has gone down and one remains unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok and Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang register significant changes in their net approval rates, up by 10, 10, 9, 8, 8 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Nicholas Yang, Lau Kong-wah and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 1, 23 and 48 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 73 percentage points.
According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Ceajer Chan falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Anthony Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Gregory So, Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen, Lau Kong-wah and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Matthew Cheung, Clement Cheung, Stephen Sui, Nicholas Yang and Eric Ma can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Eddie Ng falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while CY Leung falls into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:
|
“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
|
Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (77%) |
|
“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
|
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (52%) |
|
“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
|
Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (43%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (39%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (38%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (35%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (34%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (31%); Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (23%); FS Paul Chan Mo-po (17%) |
|
“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
|
CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (29%, 45%); Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung Wan-ching (22%, 29%) [21]; Secretary for Labour and Welfare Stephen Sui Wai-keung (22%, 32%)[21]; Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (22%, 44%)[21]; Secretary for Development Eric Ma Siu-cheung (17%, 32%) |
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“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
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Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (63%) |
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“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
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CE Leung Chun-ying (71%) |
[21] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung Wan-ching, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Stephen Sui Wai-keung and Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung are 22.3%, 22.2% and 21.5%.
Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, I reprint again the abstracts of two articles written by Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.
“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”
“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”
Future Releases (Tentative)
