HKU POP releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack
Press Release on January 26, 2017
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Top Ten Legislative Councillors) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 112 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP conducted a double stage survey on the ratings of Legislative Councillors in January, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The latest survey of top 10 Legislative Councillors shows that compared to three months ago, in terms of familiarity, Michael Tien, Raymond Chan and Holden Chow drop out of the ‘top 10’ list while Yau Wai-ching is no longer a Legislative Councillor. They are replaced by Tanya Chan, Claudia Mo, Chiang Lai-wan and Lau Siu-lai, and it is the first time for the latter three to enter the list. In terms of absolute ratings, the scores of all 7 Councillors who were also rated last time have dropped. Among them, the drops in Nathan Law, Lau Siu-lai, Starry Lee, James To, Eddie Chu and Regina Ip’s ratings have gone beyond sampling errors. In terms of relative rankings, James To and Eddie Chu continue to rank first and second. Tanya Chan who rejoined Legco ranks third. Claudia Mo enters the list for the first time to rank fourth. Regina Ip continues to rank fifth. Starry Lee goes down two positions to rank sixth. Nathan Law and Leung Kwok-hung continue to rank seventh and eighth. Chiang Lai-wan and Lau Siu-lai enter the list for the first time to rank ninth and tenth. It should be noted however that our list of “top 10” only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 58 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the “top 10” list by design. The maximum sampling error of the ratings registered is +/-2.8 marks at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the rating survey is 69%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 69.3% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,013 successful interviews, not 1,013 x 69.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling errors of various ratings are not more than +/-2.8. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling errors of various ratings not more than +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of the top ten Legislative Councillors. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings [6] |
|
9-12/1/2017 (First stage naming survey) |
1,005 |
69.3% |
+/-3% |
|
16-20/1/2017 (Second stage rating survey) |
1,013 |
69.2% |
+/-2.8 |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
The research design of our “Top 10 Legislative Councillors” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from January 9 to 12. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 councillors whom they knew best. Leung Kwok-hung, Regina Ip, Nathan Law, Starry Lee and Tanya Chan were the top 5 councillors mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted from January 16 to 20, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:
|
Date of survey |
11-14/4/2016 |
11-14/7/2016 |
10-13/10/2016 |
16-20/1/2017 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample base[7] |
562-671 |
566-670 |
503-685 |
557-664 |
-- |
|
|
Overall response rate |
69.0% |
72.1% |
68.4% |
69.2% |
-- |
|
|
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[7] |
Recognition rate |
-- |
|
James To |
-- |
49.1[9] |
57.3{1}[8] |
53.9+/-2.0{1} |
90.0% |
-3.4[8] |
|
Eddie Chu |
--[10] |
--[10] |
56.5{2} |
53.3+/-2.7{2} |
84.8% |
-3.2[8] |
|
Tanya Chan |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
47.7+/-2.4{3} |
88.6% |
-- |
|
Claudia Mo |
-- |
-- |
-- |
46.4+/-2.4{4} |
89.2% |
-- |
|
Regina Ip |
49.6{2}[8] |
49.3{3} |
48.4{5} |
45.7+/-2.0{5} |
97.5% |
-2.7[8] |
|
Starry Lee |
45.6{4} |
46.6[9] |
48.7{4} |
44.9+/-2.3{6} |
92.8% |
-3.8[8] |
|
Nathan Law |
--[10] |
--[10] |
45.4{7} |
39.0+/-2.8{7} |
76.6% |
-6.4[8] |
|
Leung Kwok-hung |
38.8{8} |
36.5{9} |
39.8{8}[8] |
38.9+/-2.6{8} |
97.5% |
-0.9 |
|
Chiang Lai-wan |
-- |
-- |
-- |
37.1+/-2.2{9} |
89.3% |
-- |
|
Lau Siu-lai |
--[10] |
--[10] |
43.3 [9] |
36.9+/-2.5{10} |
85.9% |
-6.4[8] |
|
Alvin Yeung |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
55.1+/-2.7[9] |
74.6% |
-- |
|
Yiu Chung-yim |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
42.2+/-2.6[9] |
74.4% |
-- |
|
Michael Tien |
-- |
53.7{2} |
53.9{3} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Raymond Chan |
42.1[9] |
-- |
45.5{6} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Yau Wai-ching |
--[10] |
--[10] |
37.4{9} |
-- [10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Holden Chow |
--[10] |
--[10] |
36.7{10} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Kwong Chun-yu |
--[10] |
--[10] |
53.8 [9] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Jasper Tsang |
63.1{1}[8] |
65.9{1}[8] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Emily Lau |
44.1{5}[8] |
46.6{4}[8] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Alan Leong |
48.2{3} |
44.8{5}[8] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Tam Yiu-chung |
44.8[9] |
43.1{6} |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Lee Cheuk-yan |
42.3{7} |
41.5{7} |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Albert Ho |
42.6{6}[8] |
40.6{8} |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Wong Yuk-man |
35.6{10} |
35.0{10} |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Albert Chan |
37.6{9} |
-- |
--[10] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. Starting from 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, with variable sub-sample size for each question. In latest survey, the sub-sample size of the questions varies between 557 and 664, and its effect has already been reflected in the sampling errors.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in the rating stage of survey are not counted.
[10] Not a Legislative Councillor during the survey period.
The latest survey showed that James To was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 53.9 marks. Eddie Chu ranked the 2nd with 53.3 marks. The 3rd to 6th ranks went to Tanya Chan, Claudia Mo, Regina Ip and Starry Lee who attained 47.7, 46.4, 45.7 and 44.9 marks respectively. Nathan Law, Leung Kwok-hung, Chiang Lai-wan and Lau Siu-lai ranked the 7th to 10th, attaining 39.0, 38.9, 37.1 and 36.9 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 49.4 marks, while that for the top 10 was 44.4 marks. For this latest survey, Alvin Yeung and Yiu Chung-yim obtained support ratings of 55.1 and 42.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past four surveys are tabulated as follows:
|
Date of survey |
11-14/4/16 |
11-14/7/16 |
10-13/10/16 |
16-20/1/17 |
No. of times on top 10 |
Average rating [11] |
Overall ranking [12] |
|
Regina Ip |
49.6 |
49.3 |
48.4 |
45.7 |
4 |
48.3 |
1 |
|
Leung Kwok-hung |
38.8 |
36.5 |
39.8 |
38.9 |
4 |
38.5 |
2 |
|
Starry Lee |
45.6 |
-- |
48.7 |
44.9 |
3 |
46.4 |
3 |
|
Jasper Tsang |
63.1 |
65.9 |
--[13] |
--[13] |
2 |
64.5 |
4 |
|
James To |
-- |
-- |
57.3 |
53.9 |
2 |
55.6 |
5 |
|
Eddie Chu |
--[13] |
--[13] |
56.5 |
53.3 |
2 |
54.9 |
6 |
|
Michael Tien |
-- |
53.7 |
53.9 |
-- |
2 |
53.8 |
7 |
|
Alan Leong |
48.2 |
44.8 |
--[13] |
--[13] |
2 |
46.5 |
8 |
|
Emily Lau |
44.1 |
46.6 |
--[13] |
--[13] |
2 |
45.3 |
9 |
|
Nathan Law |
--[13] |
--[13] |
45.4 |
39.0 |
2 |
42.2 |
10 |
|
Lee Cheuk-yan |
42.3 |
41.5 |
--[13] |
--[13] |
2 |
41.9 |
11 |
|
Albert Ho |
42.6 |
40.6 |
--[13] |
--[13] |
2 |
41.6 |
12 |
|
Wong Yuk-man |
35.6 |
35.0 |
--[13] |
--[13] |
2 |
35.3 |
13 |
|
Tanya Chan |
--[13] |
--[13] |
-- |
47.7 |
1 |
47.7 |
14 |
|
Claudia Mo |
-- |
-- |
-- |
46.4 |
1 |
46.4 |
15 |
|
Raymond Chan |
-- |
-- |
45.5 |
-- |
1 |
45.5 |
16 |
|
Tam Yiu-chung |
-- |
43.1 |
--[13] |
--[13] |
1 |
43.1 |
17 |
|
Albert Chan |
37.6 |
-- |
--[13] |
--[13] |
1 |
37.6 |
18 |
|
Yau Wai-ching |
--[13] |
--[13] |
37.4 |
--[13] |
1 |
37.4 |
19 |
|
Chiang Lai-wan |
-- |
-- |
-- |
37.1 |
1 |
37.1 |
20 |
|
Lau Siu-lai |
--[13] |
--[13] |
-- |
36.9 |
1 |
36.9 |
21 |
|
Holden Chow |
--[13] |
--[13] |
36.7 |
-- |
1 |
36.7 |
22 |
[11] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past four surveys.
[12] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
[13] Not a Legislative Councillor during the survey period.
The overall rankings in the past four surveys showed that among the current Legislative Councillors, only Regina Ip and Leung Kwok-hung have been on the list for four times, with average ratings of 48.3 and 38.5 marks respectively. Starry Lee has been on the list for three times attaining 46.4 marks on average. Jasper Tsang, James To, Eddie Chu, Michael Tien, Alan Leong, Emily Lau, Nathan Law, Lee Cheuk-yan, Albert Ho and Wong Yuk-man have been on the list twice, with 64.5, 55.6, 54.9, 53.8, 46.5, 45.3, 42.2, 41.9, 41.6 and 35.3 marks respectively. Tanya Chan, Claudia Mo, Raymond Chan, Tam Yiu-chung, Albert Chan, Yau Wai-ching, Chiang Lai-wan, Lau Siu-lai and Holden Chow have been on the list once, with 47.7, 46.4, 45.5, 43.1, 37.6, 37.4, 37.1, 36.9 and 36.7 marks correspondingly.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from October 10 to 13, 2016, while this survey was conducted from January 16 to 20, 2017. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
19/1/17 |
John Tsang Chun-wah announces that he will run for Chief Executive. |
|
18/1/17 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying delivers the 2017 Policy Address. |
|
12/1/17 |
Chief Secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor announces her resignation and plans to run for Chief Executive. |
|
5/1/17 |
West Kowloon Cultural District Authority announces to launch a six-week public consultation of Palace Museum on its design and operation. |
|
9/12/16 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying announces he will not seek re-election. |
|
2/12/16 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying and Secretary for Justice Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung apply for judicial review on the qualifications of lawmakers Lau Siu-lai, Edward Yiu Chung-yim, Nathan Law Kwun-chung and Leung Kwok-hung. |
|
15/11/16 |
The High Court rules that Youngspiration’s Leung Chung-hang and Yau Wai-ching are disqualified as legislators. |
|
7/11/16 |
The National People’s Congress passes the interpretation of Article 104 of the Basic Law. |
|
26/10/16 |
Retired judge Woo Kwok-hing announces he will run for the Chief Executive. |
|
19/10/16 |
Pro-establishment lawmakers stage walk-out to prevent localists from retaking oaths. |
|
18/10/16 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying and Secretary for Justice Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung apply for judicial review against Legislative Council’s decision of permitting Leung Chung-hang and Yau Wai-ching to retake their oaths. |
|
13/10/16 |
Media reports on the issue of Legislative Council Oath. |
Commentary
Edward Chit-Fai Tai, Senior Data Analyst of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “The latest survey of top 10 Legislative Councillors shows that compared to three months ago, in terms of familiarity, Michael Tien, Raymond Chan and Holden Chow drop out of the ‘top 10’ list while Yau Wai-ching is no longer a Legislative Councillor. They are replaced by Tanya Chan, Claudia Mo, Chiang Lai-wan and Lau Siu-lai, and it is the first time for the latter three to enter the list. In terms of absolute ratings, the scores of all 7 Councillors who were also rated last time have dropped. Among them, the drops in Nathan Law, Lau Siu-lai, Starry Lee, James To, Eddie Chu and Regina Ip’s ratings have gone beyond sampling errors. In terms of relative rankings, James To and Eddie Chu continue to rank first and second. Tanya Chan who rejoined Legco ranks third. Claudia Mo enters the list for the first time to rank fourth. Regina Ip continues to rank fifth. Starry Lee goes down two positions to rank sixth. Nathan Law and Leung Kwok-hung continue to rank seventh and eighth. Chiang Lai-wan and Lau Siu-lai enter the list for the first time to rank ninth and tenth. It should be noted that our list of ‘top 10’ only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 58 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the ‘top 10’ list by design. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of these popularity ratings using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page.”
Future Release (Tentative)
