HKU POP releases the first part of Macau annual survey 2016Back
Press Release on December 19, 2016
| Detailed Findings (Macau annual survey) |
| Detailed Findings (Macau Studies Feature Page) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 111 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
Hong Kong and Macau differ a lot, the figures of their public sentiments cannot be directly compared. However, within the survey series conducted by POP in Macau, they themselves can be compared. Between 1 and 9 December 2016, POP interviewed 520 Macau people by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers, and found that the popularity of Macau CE Chui Sai On has significantly increased compared to one year ago. His support rating now stands at 60.7 marks, with net popularity increases to positive 5 percentage points, back to the level registered in 2013 in general. For the Macau SAR Government, compared to one year ago, its net satisfaction rate goes up significantly to positive 24 percentage points. As for the specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, all six areas register positive figures. Their rankings are: relation with the Central Government at positive 65 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 45 percentage points, performance of Macau law enforcement departments at positive 45 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at positive 23 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at positive 16 percentage points, and developing democracy at positive 14 percentage points. Looking back at 2016, Macau people’s appraisal on the city’s overall development has rebounded significantly, with net satisfaction rate jumps up to positive 41 percentage points. Those who expect next year’s development on societal level to get better have also increased significantly to 44%, while those who expect the situation to get worse have dropped significantly to 16%, giving a net optimism at positive 28 percentage points, meaning that people are optimistic about the next year’s development. Besides, if people have to choose between having a prosperous, corruption-free, fair, free or welfare society, more people would continue to opt for a corruption-free society. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE”is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 520 successful interviews, not 520 x 65.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat
a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the
error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, of percentages not more than
+/-4% and of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2015 for this survey series, during the
transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test
whether the first set of figures collected in 2015 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before
testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the
totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but
when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS).
If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Background Information
Since 1992, POP has been conducting onsite studies in Macau in order to study the development of its public sentiment. Among them, most are related to election studies and opinion testing. Up to now, these research projects include Macau Legislative Assembly Exit Polls (1992, 1996, 2001, 2005 and 2009), Macau handover and year-end review surveys (since 1999), and other feature studies.
After the sovereignty of Hong Kong and Macau returned to China, the development of public sentiment in the two cities has become more inter-related. One can expect that Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Macau, Zhuhai and the whole Pearl River Delta will soon merge to become one entity both economically and culturally. Therefore, in the long run, establishing a common social indicator in this region is a “multiple-win situation” for all. POP’s research in Macau in the last 24 years is aimed at gradually building up a regional system on scientific public opinion polling, and to provide useful data for comparative studies in future.
Latest Figures
POP today releases via the “POP SITE” the first part of the Macau annual survey 2016, while the second part will be released on January 5, 2017. From 2015, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution for this survey series. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Statistics and Census Service of Macau government regarding the gender-age distribution of the Macau population in 2015 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Sample base |
Overall response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
1-9/12/2016 |
520 |
65.6% |
+/-4% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
I. Popularity figures of Macau CE and the Government
Recent popularity figures of Macau CE Chui Sai On and people’s satisfaction of the overall performance of the MSAR Government are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
23-28/12/12 |
6-12/12/13 |
1-3/12/14 |
8-9/12/15 |
1-9/12/16 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
519 |
511 |
502 |
510 |
520 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
70.6% |
69.6% |
66.5% |
66.1% |
65.6% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error[7] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE Chui Sai On |
64.5[8] |
61.1[8] |
56.2[8] |
57.5 |
60.7+/-1.7 |
+3.2[8] |
|
Vote of confidence in CE Chui Sai On |
51%[8] |
39%[8] |
38% |
39% |
44+/-4% |
+5%[8] |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE Chui Sai On |
28%[8] |
39%[8] |
42% |
43% |
39+/-4% |
-4% |
|
Net approval rate |
23%[8] |
0%[8] |
-4% |
-4% |
5+/-8% |
+9%[8] |
|
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[9] |
49% |
41%[8] |
35%[8] |
34% |
44+/-4% |
+10%[8] |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[9] |
14% |
26%[8] |
34%[8] |
28% |
20+/-4% |
-8%[8] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
35% |
15%[8] |
2%[8] |
6% |
24+/-7% |
+18%[8] |
|
Mean value[9] |
3.4 (Base=519) |
3.1[8] (Base=511) |
2.9[8] (Base=501) |
3.0 (Base=507) |
3.2+/-0.1 (Base=516) |
+0.2[8] |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100
times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more
than +/-8 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically
significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful
or meaningful.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
The latest survey showed that, CE Chui Sai On scored 60.7 marks, 44% supported him as CE and 39% opposed, giving him a net approval rate of positive 5 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the Macau SAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 44% were satisfied, whereas 20% were dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction of positive 24 percentage points. The mean score is 3.2, which is close to “half-half”.
Recent figures on Macau people’s appraisal of the six specific policy areas of the Macau SAR Government, and towards Central Government’s policy on Macau since the Handover are tabulated as follows:
|
Date of survey[10] |
6-12/12/13 |
1-3/12/14 |
8-9/12/15 |
1-9/12/16 |
Latest Change |
|
Sample base |
511 |
502 |
510 |
520 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
69.6% |
66.5% |
66.1% |
65.6% |
-- |
|
Finding[11] |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[12] |
-- |
|
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate |
66% |
64% |
57% |
70+/-4% |
+13%[13] |
|
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate |
6% |
7% |
5% |
5+/-2% |
-- |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
60% |
57% |
53% |
65+/-5% |
+12%[13] |
|
Mean value |
3.8 (Base=449) |
3.7 (Base=465) |
3.7 (Base=444) |
3.9+/-0.1 (Base=472) |
+0.2[13] |
|
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate |
61% |
51%[13] |
44%[13] |
59+/-4% |
+15%[13] |
|
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate |
13% |
23%[13] |
22% |
14+/-3% |
-8%[13] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
47% |
29%[13] |
22%[13] |
45+/-6% |
+23%[13] |
|
Mean value |
3.5 (Base=508) |
3.3[13] (Base=498) |
3.2 (Base=503) |
3.5+/-0.1 (Base=509) |
+0.3[13] |
|
Performance of Macau law enforcement departments (including the Judiciary Police): Satisfaction rate |
47% |
54%[13] |
54% |
58+/-4% |
+4% |
|
Performance of Macau law enforcement departments (including the Judiciary Police): Dissatisfaction rate |
24%[13] |
17%[13] |
14% |
13+/3% |
-1% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
23%[13] |
36%[13] |
40% |
45+/-6% |
+5% |
|
Mean value |
3.2 (Base=499) |
3.4[13] (Base=490) |
3.4 (Base=490) |
3.5+/-0.1 (Base=508) |
+0.1 |
|
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate |
41% |
38% |
40% |
43+/-4% |
+3% |
|
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate |
21% |
23% |
23% |
20+/-4% |
-3% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
20% |
15% |
17% |
23+/-7% |
+6% |
|
Mean value |
3.2 (Base=482) |
3.1 (Base=478) |
3.1 (Base=469) |
3.2+/-0.1 (Base=486) |
+0.1 |
|
Improving people’s livelihood: Satisfaction rate |
37%[13] |
34% |
34% |
44+/-4% |
+10%[13] |
|
Improving people’s livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate |
34%[13] |
42%[13] |
34%[13] |
28+/-4% |
-6%[13] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
3%[13] |
-9%[13] |
0% |
16+/-7% |
+16%[13] |
|
Mean value |
3.0 [13] (Base=507) |
2.8[13] (Base=495) |
2.9 (Base=502) |
3.1+/-0.1 (Base=516) |
+0.2[13] |
|
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate |
28%[13] |
27% |
32% |
36+/-4% |
+4% |
|
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate |
31%[13] |
36%[13] |
30% |
22+/-4% |
-8%[13] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-3%[13] |
-9% |
2% |
14+/-7% |
+12%[13] |
|
Mean value |
2.9 [13] (Base=458) |
2.8 (Base=465) |
2.9 (Base=458) |
3.1+/-0.1 (Base=471) |
+0.2[13] |
|
Central Government’s policy on Macau since the Handover: positive evaluation |
66%[13] |
64% |
63% |
70+/-4% |
+7%[13] |
|
Central Government’s policy on Macau since the Handover: negative evaluation |
7%[13] |
7% |
5%[13] |
6+/-2% |
+1% |
|
Net evaluation rate |
60%[13] |
57% |
58% |
63+/-5% |
+5% |
|
Mean value |
3.8 (Base=491) |
3.7 (Base=488) |
3.8 (Base=489) |
3.8+/-0.1 (Base=496) |
-- |
[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Of the 6 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government’s handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 65 percentage points. The government’s performance in maintaining economic prosperity and performance of Macau law enforcement departments (including the Judiciary Police) followed, both attained a net satisfaction rate of positive 45 percentage points. The government’s performance in protecting human rights and freedom attained a net satisfaction rate of positive 23 percentage points. Finally, the net satisfaction rates of the government’s performance in improving people’s livelihood and developing democracy are positive 16 and positive 14 percentage points respectively. The mean scores of these 6 specific areas are 3.9, 3.5, 3.5, 3.2, 3.1 and 3.1 respectively, meaning in between “quite satisfied” and “half-half” in general. Meanwhile, 70% of the respondents evaluated positively on the policy of the Central Government on Macau after the handover, whereas 6% gave negative evaluations giving net value of positive 63 percentage points. The mean score is 3.8 marks, meaning close to “quite satisfied”.
II. Macau people’s 2016 review and 2017 forecast
Herewith the figures of Macau people’s 2016 year-end review and 2017 forecast, compared with similar figures obtained in recent years:
|
Date of survey |
23-28/12/12 |
6-12/12/13 |
1-3/12/14 |
8-9/12/15 |
1-9/12/16 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base[14] |
519 |
511 |
502 |
510 |
520 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
70.6% |
69.6% |
66.5% |
66.1% |
65.6% |
-- |
|
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[15] |
-- |
|
Satisfied with Macau’s development in the year past[16] |
69% |
62%[17] |
56%[17] |
41%[17] |
54+/-4% |
+13%[17] |
|
Dissatisfied with Macau’s development in the year past[16] |
8% |
12%[17] |
16%[17] |
22%[17] |
13+/-3% |
-9%[17] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
61% |
50%[17] |
40%[17] |
19%[17] |
41+/-6% |
+22%[17] |
|
Mean value[16] |
3.7 (Base=513) |
3.5 [17] (Base=508) |
3.4 (Base=498) |
3.2[17] (Base=496) |
3.4+/-0.1 (Base=504) |
+0.2[17] |
|
Expected Macau’s development to be better next year |
55% |
55% |
34%[17] |
25%[17] |
44+/-4% |
+19%[17] |
|
Expected Macau’s development to be worse next year |
11% |
7%[17] |
29%[17] |
33%[17] |
16+/-3% |
-17%[17] |
|
Net optimism |
45% |
49% |
5%[17] |
-8%[17] |
28+/-6% |
+36%[17] |
|
Wished Macau to become a: |
|
|
||||
|
Corruption-free society |
33%[17] |
40%[17] |
38% |
34% |
34+/-4% |
-- |
|
Prosperous society |
17% |
17% |
18% |
19% |
21+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Welfare society |
20% |
15%[17] |
15% |
20%[17] |
18+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Fair society |
22% |
20% |
20% |
18% |
16+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Free society |
5%[17] |
6% |
7% |
7%[17] |
9+/-3% |
+2% |
[14] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
[15] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[16] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[17] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Looking back at the year past, 54% said they were satisfied with Macau’s development, 13% were dissatisfied, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 41 percentage points. The mean score is 3.4, which is in between “quite satisfied” and “half-half”. Meanwhile, 44% expected Macau’s development in general to become “better” next year, 16% said it would be worse, giving a net optimism of positive 28 percentage points. If one had to choose between a “prosperous”, “corruption-free”, “fair”, “free”, and “welfare” society, 34% of the respondents would wish Macau to become a “corruption-free” society, while 21% and 18% opted for a “prosperous” and “welfare” society respectively.
Commentary
Frank Wai-Kin Lee, Research Manager of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Hong Kong and Macau differ a lot, the figures of their public sentiments cannot be directly compared. However, within the survey series conducted by POP in Macau, they themselves can be compared. According to our annual survey completed in early December, the popularity of Macau CE Chui Sai On has significantly increased compared to one year ago. His support rating now stands at 60.7 marks, with net popularity increases to positive 5 percentage points, back to the level registered in 2013 in general. For the Macau SAR Government, compared to one year ago, its net satisfaction rate goes up significantly to positive 24 percentage points. As for the specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, all six areas register positive figures. Their rankings are: relation with the Central Government at positive 65 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 45 percentage points, performance of Macau law enforcement departments at positive 45 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at positive 23 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at positive 16 percentage points, and developing democracy at positive 14 percentage points. Looking back at 2016, Macau people’s appraisal on the city’s overall development has rebounded significantly, with net satisfaction rate jumps up to positive 41 percentage points. Those who expect next year’s development on societal level to get better have also increased significantly to 44%, while those who expect the situation to get worse have dropped significantly to 16%, giving a net optimism at positive 28 percentage points, meaning that people are optimistic about the next year’s development. Besides, if people have to choose between having a prosperous, corruption-free, fair, free or welfare society, more people would continue to opt for a corruption-free society.”
Future Releases (Tentative)
- December 20, 2016 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity
- December 22, 2016 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Trust and confidence indicators
