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Press Release on December 13, 2016

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying) | Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |

Special Announcements

1. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 110 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 111th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

2. Since the figures released by POP today regarding the popularity of principal officials (excluding CE) come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2016, they are good for year-end stories. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over the past many years can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

 

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,008 Hong Kong people between 2 and 8 December, 2016 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted in early December before CE CY Leung announced he would not seek a second term in office shows that his popularity rating has significantly decreased by 5.7 marks to 35.0 compared to two weeks ago, still below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 17%, disapproval rate 71%, giving a net popularity of negative 54 percentage points, significantly decreased by 17 percentage points from late November. Both his latest rating and net popularity are at their lowest since he assumed office in 2012. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 53.5 marks. Her approval rate is 41%, disapproval rate 18%, giving a net popularity of positive 23 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 60.3 marks, approval rate 59%, disapproval rate 8%, thus a net popularity of positive 51 percentage points. His support rating has significantly dropped by 1.8 marks since early November. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 41.1 marks, significantly dropped by 4.3. His approval rate is 24%, disapproval rate 32%, giving a net popularity of negative 8 percentage points, significantly decreased by 11 percentage points from early November. Both his latest rating and net popularity are also at their lowest since he assumed office. In terms of popularity rating and approval rate, John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 4 among 13 Directors have gone up while 9 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen register significant changes in their net approval rates, down by 13 and 7 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Nicholas Yang, Paul Chan, Lau Kong-wah and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 4, 19, 28 and 39 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 73 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Carrie Lam, Lai Tung-kwok, Anthony Cheung, Gregory So, Rimsky Yuen, Paul Chan and Lau Kong-wah can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Nicholas Yang and Clement Cheung can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Eddie Ng falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while CY Leung falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 69%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee, reprints the abstracts of two articles written by Director of POP, Robert Chung, before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,008 successful interviews, not 1,008 x 69.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

 

Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]
2-8/12/2016	1,008	69.2%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

 

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages[7] (maximum values)
				1,300	+/- 2.8%	1,350	+/- 2.7%
1,200	+/- 2.9%	1,250	+/- 2.8%
1,100	+/- 3.0%	1,150	+/- 3.0%
1,000	+/- 3.2%	1,050	+/- 3.1%
900	+/- 3.3%	950	+/- 3.2%
800	+/- 3.5%	850	+/- 3.4%
700	+/- 3.8%	750	+/- 3.7%
600	+/- 4.1%	650	+/- 3.9%
500	+/- 4.5%	550	+/- 4.3%
400	+/- 5.0%	450	+/- 4.7%

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	19-22/9/16	3-6/10/16	24-27/10/16	7-10/11/16	21-24/11/16	2-8/12/16	Latest change
Sample base	1,012	1,015	1,001	1,004	1,000	1,008	--
Overall response rate	72.4%	72.7%	72.9%	71.2%	70.8%	69.2%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error [8]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	38.7[9]	36.6[9]	39.2[9]	36.3[9]	40.7[9]	35.0+/-1.9	-5.7[9]
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	22%[9]	20%	21%	21%	23%	17+/-2%	-6%[9]
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	65%	68%	62%[9]	71%[9]	61%[9]	71+/-3%	+10%[9]
Net approval rate	-43%	-49%[9]	-41%[9]	-50%[9]	-37%[9]	-54+/-5%	-17%[9]

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

 

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	4-7/7/16	5-11/8/16	5-8/9/16	3-6/10/16	7-10/11/16	2-8/12/16	Latest change
Sample base[10]	604-661	576-611	544-636	562-639	538-603	573-630	--
Overall response rate	68.9%	72.4%	73.5%	72.7%	71.2%	69.2%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error [11]	--
Rating of CS Carrie Lam	56.1[12]	55.6	51.5[12]	56.1[12]	53.2[12]	53.5+/-2.2	+0.3
Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam	50%	50%	42%[12]	50%[12]	47%	41+/-4%	-6%[12]
Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam	17%[12]	16%	24%[12]	15%[12]	21%[12]	18+/-3%	-3%
Net approval rate	33%	34%	18%[12]	35%[12]	26%[12]	23+/-6%	-3%
Rating of FS John Tsang	64.0[12]	63.0	62.2	64.5[12]	62.1[12]	60.3+/-1.7	-1.8[12]
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang	64%	64%	63%	67%	62%[12]	59+/-4%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang	6%	5%	9%[12]	9%	8%	8+/-2%	--
Net approval rate	58%	59%	54%	58%	54%	51+/-5%	-3%
Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen	48.7[12]	46.1[12]	45.7	47.8	45.4	41.1+/-2.5	-4.3[12]
Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen	30%[12]	29%	30%	30%	33%	24+/-4%	-9%[12]
Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen	25%	30%[12]	31%	24%[12]	29%[12]	32+/-4%	+3%
Net approval rate	5%[12]	-1%	-1%	6%[12]	3%	-8+/-6%	-11%[12]

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

 

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

Date of survey	3-6/10/16		7-10/11/16		2-8/12/16		Latest change
Sample base [13]	565-624		586-632		571-633		--
Overall response rate	72.7%		71.2%		69.2%		--
Sample base for each question / Percentage of answer	Base	%	Base	%	Base	% & error [14]	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man	614	78%	601	81%	595	78+/-3%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man	614	5%[15]	601	5%	595	5+/-2%	--
Net approval rate	614	74%[15]	601	76%	595	73+/-5%	-3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	624	37%	590	41%	610	42+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	624	10%	590	10%	610	9+/-2%	-1%
Net approval rate	624	27%	590	31%	610	33+/-5%	+2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	603	48%	609	46%	582	44+/-4%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	603	19%[15]	609	22%	582	17+/-3%	-5%[15]
Net approval rate	603	29%	609	24%	582	27+/-6%	+3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung	595	33%[15]	586	39%[15]	601	35+/-4%	-4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung	595	29%[15]	586	25%	601	24+/-4%	-1%
Net approval rate	595	4%[15]	586	14%[15]	601	11+/-6%	-3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	599	32%	595	33%	608	29+/-4%	-4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	599	19%[15]	595	20%	608	19+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	599	13%[15]	595	13%	608	10+/-6%[16]	-3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok	586	39%	632	41%	571	38+/-4%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok	586	26%[15]	632	27%	571	28+/-4%	+1%
Net approval rate	586	13%[15]	632	14%	571	10+/-7%[16]	-4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam	593	29%	610	35%[15]	600	29+/-4%	-6%[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam	593	21%	610	19%	600	20+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	593	8%	610	16%[15]	600	9+/-6%	-7%[15]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	595	29%	622	32%	625	31+/-4%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	595	28%	622	22%[15]	625	23+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	595	2%	622	10%[15]	625	8+/-6%[17]	-2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung	607	20%	598	20%	604	17+/-3%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung	607	11%	598	10%	604	8+/-2%	-2%
Net approval rate	607	9%	598	9%	604	8+/-4%[17]	-1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang	611	19%	617	22%	606	19+/-3%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang	611	24%	617	24%	606	23+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	611	-5%	617	-2%	606	-4+/-5%	-2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan	565	17%[15]	613	24%[15]	603	24+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan	565	53%	613	48%[15]	603	43+/-4%	-5%[15]
Net approval rate	565	-35%[15]	613	-24%[15]	603	-19+/-7%	+5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah	593	19%	609	25%[15]	582	16+/-3%	-9%[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah	593	46%	609	39%[15]	582	45+/-4%	+6%[15]
Net approval rate	593	-27%	609	-15%[15]	582	-28+/-6%	-13%[15]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng	597	14%	592	18%[15]	633	16+/-3%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng	597	57%	592	60%	633	55+/-4%	-5%[15]
Net approval rate	597	-43%	592	-43%	633	-39+/-6%	+4%

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[16] Based on the figures of latest survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok are 10.0 and 9.8 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked fifth and sixth this time.

[17] Based on the figures of latest survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So and Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung are 8.3 and 8.2 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked eighth and ninth this time.

 

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 35.0 marks, and 17% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 54 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 53.5, 60.3 and 41.1 marks, and 41%, 59% and 24% would vote for their reappointments correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 23, positive 51 and negative 8 percentage points respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 73 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung with net approval rates of positive 33 and positive 27 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Development Paul Chan, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Education Eddie Ng ranked 4th to 13th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 11, positive 10, positive 10, positive 9, positive 8, positive 8, negative 4, negative 19, negative 28 and negative 39 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 7 to 10 November, 2016 while this survey was conducted from 2 to 8 December, 2016. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

6/12/16	Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying responds to the act of Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah who refused to answer questions from four lawmakers.
5/12/16	Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect is launched.
2/12/16	Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying and Secretary for Justice Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung apply for judicial review on the qualifications of lawmakers Lau Siu-lai, Edward Yiu Chung-yim, Nathan Law Kwun-chung and Leung Kwok-hung.
30/11/16	The Central Government accepts applications for home return permits from pan-democrats.
29/11/16	Zhang Dejiang, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, meets with the members of “Silent Majority for Hong Kong” in Beijing.
23/11/16	The Audit Commission releases “Director of Audit’s Report No. 67”.
22/11/16	Hong Kong Disneyland announces phased expansion plan running from 2018 to 2023.
21/11/16	President Xi Jinping and Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying meet in Peru.
15/11/16	The High Court rules that Youngspiration’s Leung Chung-hang and Yau Wai-ching are disqualified as legislators.
13/11/16	Anti-Hong Kong Independence Alliance organizes a rally in Admiralty.
7/11/16	The National People’s Congress passes the interpretation of Article 104 of the Basic Law.

 

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.

Our latest survey conducted in early December before CE CY Leung announced he would not seek a second term in office shows that his popularity rating has significantly decreased by 5.7 marks to 35.0 compared to two weeks ago, still below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 17%, disapproval rate 71%, giving a net popularity of negative 54 percentage points, significantly decreased by 17 percentage points from late November. Both his latest rating and net popularity are at their lowest since he assumed office in 2012.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 53.5 marks. Her approval rate is 41%, disapproval rate 18%, giving a net popularity of positive 23 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 60.3 marks, approval rate 59%, disapproval rate 8%, thus a net popularity of positive 51 percentage points. His support rating has significantly dropped by 1.8 marks since early November. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 41.1 marks, significantly dropped by 4.3. His approval rate is 24%, disapproval rate 32%, giving a net popularity of negative 8 percentage points, significantly decreased by 11 percentage points from early November. Both his latest rating and net popularity are also at their lowest since he assumed office. In terms of popularity rating and approval rate, John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 4 among 13 Directors have gone up while 9 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen register significant changes in their net approval rates, down by 13 and 7 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Nicholas Yang, Paul Chan, Lau Kong-wah and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 4, 19, 28 and 39 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 73 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Carrie Lam, Lai Tung-kwok, Anthony Cheung, Gregory So, Rimsky Yuen, Paul Chan and Lau Kong-wah can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Nicholas Yang and Clement Cheung can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Eddie Ng falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while CY Leung falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (78%)

“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

FS John Tsang Chun-wah (59%)

“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (44%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (42%); CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (41%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (38%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (35%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (31%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (24%)[18]; Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (24%)[18]; Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (16%)

“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (29%, 49%)[19]; Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (29%, 49%)[19]; Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (19%, 42%); Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung Wan-ching (17%, 25%)

“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (55%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Leung Chun-ying (71%)

[18] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung and Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po are 24.4% and 23.9%.

[19] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen are 29.4% and 29.0%.

 

Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, I reprint again the abstracts of two articles written by Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site. Besides, since CY Leung announced that he would not run for second term of CE one day after our survey period (December 9), how this decision would affect his popularity is yet to be seen.

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”

Future Releases (Tentative)

• December 19, 2016 (Monday) 1pm to 2pm: First part of Macau annual survey 2016
• December 20, 2016 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity

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Everything carried in this website does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles and messages posted at the opinion platforms. Any responsibility, legal and otherwise, arising from any such item shall vest entirely with its author. The intellectual property of all information contained in this website, including questionnaire design and research reports, originally belongs to HKU POP unless specified otherwise. HKU POP opens their copyright to the world via this website, but would request all users to acknowledge their source properly.

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Last update :  26/6/2019