HKU POP releases findings on people’s feeling towards different governments and peoplesBack
Press Release on November 22, 2016
| Detailed Findings (Feelings towards different Governments) |
| Detailed Findings (Feelings towards different People) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) at The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 109 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP conducted a double stage survey on Hong Kong citizens’ feeling towards different governments and peoples in November, by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards fellow Hongkongers is 45 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 41 percentage points higher than that towards the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 16 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 14 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. It should be noted that the net value of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards fellow Hong Kong people has again dropped to its record low since this survey started in 2007, which is another indicator of society’s polarization. As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, the United States and Russia whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them, except for the people of the Philippines. These findings are worth studying by various governments. Compared to 6 months ago, the net value of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards the people of Thailand has increased to its new high since 2007, while that towards the government of South Korea has dropped to its new low since 2007. As for reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level while the sampling error of net values need another calculation. The response rate of the second stage opinion survey is 71%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 71.2% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 70.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of various percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the survey findings on Hong Kong people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples. These surveys on governments are conducted at least once a year since 1997, while the surveys on peoples only began in 2007, this being the nineteenth time. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Sampling error of percentages [6] |
|
7-10/11/2016 (First stage naming survey) |
1,004 |
71.2% |
+/-3% |
|
14-17/11/2016 (Second stage opinion survey) |
1,007 |
70.9% |
+/-3% |
[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. For this survey, the sub-sample size of all questions has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have been reported in the statistical tables.
The research design of our survey on “people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. For many years, POP have selected 15 regions and countries that are best known to Hong Kong people, and conducted surveys to measure people’s feeling towards the governments of these places. Our primary objective was to map Hong Kong people’s cosmopolitan view over time. In 2007, we improved our research design. Our mid-2007 survey was divided into two stages, namely, a naming survey and an opinion survey. In the 2007 year-end survey, we further added the people module to the survey. In specific terms, in our naming survey, other than Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan and Macau, respondents can name, unaided, up to ten regions or countries which they know best. The four cross-strait regions together with 12 other regions and countries most frequently mentioned in the naming stage were then shortlisted into the second stage, with their governments and peoples rated by respondents as “very positive”, “quite positive”, “half-half”, “quite negative” or “very negative”. In our first stage survey conducted on November 7 to 10, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Singapore and France were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Our second stage survey was conducted on November 14 to 17. The following table summarizes the findings of Hong Kong people’s feeling towards the governments and peoples of the four cross-strait regions.
|
Date of survey |
29/5-2/6/15 |
16-19/11/15 |
16-19/5/16 |
14-17/11/16 |
||||
|
Sample base |
1,038 |
1,004 |
1,001 |
1,007 |
||||
|
Overall response rate |
66.5% |
64.8% |
67.6% |
70.9% |
||||
|
Feeling towards different governments / peoples [7] |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Base [8] |
Finding and error [9] |
Latest change[10] |
Net difference with gov’ts / peoples |
|
|
Hong Kong |
People Positive |
41%[11] |
40% |
49%[11] |
633 |
41+/-4% |
-8%[11] |
+45% |
|
People Negative |
10% |
11% |
14% |
633 |
13+/-3% |
-1% |
||
|
Net value |
30%[11] |
29% |
35% |
633 |
28+/-5% |
-7%[11] |
||
|
Government Positive |
27%[11] |
26% |
24% |
633 |
22+/-3% |
-2% |
-45% |
|
|
Government Negative |
36% |
34% |
43%[11] |
633 |
40+/-4% |
-3% |
||
|
Net value |
-8% |
-8% |
-19%[11] |
633 |
-17+/-6% |
+2% |
||
|
Mainland |
People Positive |
28% |
26% |
27% |
542 |
33+/-4% |
+6%[11] |
+14% |
|
People Negative |
21%[11] |
24% |
29%[11] |
542 |
25+/-4% |
-4% |
||
|
Net value |
7% |
2% |
-3% |
542 |
8+/-6% |
+11%[11] |
||
|
Government Positive |
30% |
26% |
24% |
542 |
28+/-4% |
+4% |
-14% |
|
|
Government Negative |
31% |
31% |
42%[11] |
542 |
34+/-4% |
-8%[11] |
||
|
Net value |
-1% |
-5% |
-17%[11] |
542 |
-6+/-7% |
+11%[11] |
||
|
Taiwan |
People Positive |
62% |
59% |
67%[11] |
634 |
60+/-4% |
-7%[11] |
+41% |
|
People Negative |
3% |
4% |
3% |
634 |
4+/-1% |
+1% |
||
|
Net value |
59% |
55% |
64%[11] |
634 |
56+/-4% |
-8%[11] |
||
|
Government Positive |
33% |
31% |
43%[11] |
634 |
29+/-4% |
-14%[11] |
-41% |
|
|
Government Negative |
10%[11] |
10% |
10% |
634 |
15+/-3% |
+5%[11] |
||
|
Net value |
23%[11] |
21% |
33%[11] |
634 |
15+/-5% |
-18%[11] |
||
|
Macau |
People Positive |
47% |
45% |
49% |
641 |
50+/-4% |
+1% |
+16% |
|
People Negative |
3% |
2% |
4% |
641 |
2+/-1% |
-2% |
||
|
Net value |
44%[11] |
44% |
45% |
641 |
48+/-4% |
+3% |
||
|
Government Positive |
41% |
39% |
36% |
641 |
43+/-4% |
+7%[11] |
-16% |
|
|
Government Negative |
13% |
16% |
17% |
641 |
11+/-2% |
-6%[11] |
||
|
Net value |
28% |
23% |
18% |
641 |
32+/-5% |
+14%[11] |
||
[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[8] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100
times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when
quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Comparison made with survey findings of 16-19/5/16.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Herewith the findings of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards the governments and peoples of 12 regions and countries other than the four cross-strait regions. They are ranked according to the net values of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards their people, in descending order:
|
Date of survey |
29/5-2/6/15 |
16-19/11/15 |
16-19/5/16 |
14-17/11/16 |
|||||
|
Sample base |
1,038 |
1,004 |
1,001 |
1,007 |
|||||
|
Overall response rate |
66.5% |
64.8% |
67.6% |
70.9% |
|||||
|
Feeling towards different governments / peoples [12] |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Base[13] |
Finding and error[14] |
Latest change[15] |
Net difference with gov’ts / peoples |
||
|
Singapore |
People Positive |
61% |
62% |
60% |
596 |
56+/-4% |
-4% |
+16% |
|
|
People Negative |
2% |
2% |
2% |
596 |
2+/-1% |
-- |
|||
|
Net value |
59% |
60% |
58% |
596 |
54+/-4% |
-4% |
|||
|
Government Positive |
55% |
56% |
52% |
596 |
49+/-4% |
-3% |
-16% |
||
|
Government Negative |
7% |
7% |
11%[16] |
596 |
12+/-3% |
+1% |
|||
|
Net value |
49% |
48% |
40%[16] |
596 |
38+/-6% |
-2% |
|||
|
Canada |
People Positive |
51% |
55% |
55% |
603 |
51+/-4% |
-4% |
+1% |
|
|
People Negative |
1% |
1% |
2% |
603 |
2+/-1% |
-- |
|||
|
Net value |
50% |
54% |
54% |
603 |
49+/-4% |
-5%[16] |
|||
|
Government Positive |
48% |
48% |
52% |
603 |
49+/-4% |
-3% |
-1% |
||
|
Government Negative |
1% |
2% |
2% |
603 |
2+/-1% |
-- |
|||
|
Net value |
47%[16] |
46% |
51%[16] |
603 |
48+/-4% |
-3% |
|||
|
Japan |
People Positive |
54% |
53% |
62%[16] |
617 |
56+/-4% |
-6%[16] |
+67% |
|
|
People Negative |
8% |
9% |
8% |
617 |
10+/-2% |
+2% |
|||
|
Net value |
47% |
44% |
53%[16] |
617 |
46+/-5% |
-7%[16] |
|||
|
Government Positive |
17% |
18% |
23%[16] |
617 |
20+/-3% |
-3% |
-67% |
||
|
Government Negative |
48%[16] |
47% |
42%[16] |
617 |
41+/-4% |
-1% |
|||
|
Net value |
-31%[16] |
-29% |
-19%[16] |
617 |
-21+/-6% |
-2% |
|||
|
Australia |
People Positive |
44%[16] |
50%[16] |
53% |
588 |
47+/-4% |
-6%[16] |
+5% |
|
|
People Negative |
3% |
2% |
2% |
588 |
2+/-1% |
-- |
|||
|
Net value |
41%[16] |
48%[16] |
52% |
588 |
45+/-4% |
-7%[16] |
|||
|
Government Positive |
39%[16] |
44%[16] |
47% |
588 |
43+/-4% |
-4% |
-5% |
||
|
Government Negative |
5% |
3%[16] |
4% |
588 |
3+/-1% |
-1% |
|||
|
Net value |
35%[16] |
41%[16] |
43% |
588 |
40+/-5% |
-3% |
|||
|
Germany |
People Positive |
37%[16] |
45%[16] |
48% |
642 |
44+/-4% |
-4% |
+8% |
|
|
People Negative |
2% |
1% |
2% |
642 |
2+/-1% |
-- |
|||
|
Net value |
35%[16] |
43%[16] |
47% |
642 |
42+/-4% |
-5%[16] |
|||
|
Government Positive |
34%[16] |
43%[16] |
47% |
642 |
39+/-4% |
-8%[16] |
-8% |
||
|
Government Negative |
2% |
2% |
3% |
642 |
5+/-2% |
+2% |
|||
|
Net value |
32% |
41%[16] |
44% |
642 |
34+/-5% |
-10%[16] |
|||
|
Thailand |
People Positive |
38% |
41% |
43% |
598 |
45+/-4% |
+2% |
+38% |
|
|
People Negative |
10% |
10% |
7% |
598 |
6+/-2% |
-1% |
|||
|
Net value |
28% |
31% |
37%[16] |
598 |
39+/-5%[17] |
+2% |
|||
|
Government Positive |
13% |
16% |
20%[16] |
598 |
25+/-4% |
+5%[16] |
-38% |
||
|
Government Negative |
35% |
30%[16] |
31% |
598 |
23+/-3% |
-8%[16] |
|||
|
Net value |
-21% |
-14%[16] |
-11% |
598 |
2+/-6% |
+13%[16] |
|||
|
United Kingdom |
People Positive |
42% |
50%[16] |
54% |
594 |
46+/-4% |
-8%[16] |
+12% |
|
|
People Negative |
4% |
3% |
3% |
594 |
6+/-2% |
+3% |
|||
|
Net value |
38% |
47%[16] |
51% |
594 |
39+/-5%[17] |
-12%[16] |
|||
|
Government Positive |
36% |
41%[16] |
44% |
594 |
40+/-4% |
-4% |
-12% |
||
|
Government Negative |
11%[16] |
9% |
14%[16] |
594 |
12+/-3% |
-2% |
|||
|
Net value |
25%[16] |
32%[16] |
30% |
594 |
27+/-5% |
-3% |
|||
|
South Korea |
People Positive |
42%[16] |
45% |
47% |
550 |
43+/-4% |
-4% |
+43% |
|
|
People Negative |
8% |
7% |
7% |
550 |
9+/-2% |
+2% |
|||
|
Net value |
34%[16] |
38% |
41% |
550 |
34+/-5% |
-7%[16] |
|||
|
Government Positive |
32%[16] |
41%[16] |
38% |
550 |
22+/-4% |
-16%[16] |
-43% |
||
|
Government Negative |
10% |
10% |
8% |
550 |
31+/-4% |
+23%[16] |
|||
|
Net value |
22%[16] |
30%[16] |
31% |
550 |
-9+/-6% |
-40%[16] |
|||
|
France |
People Positive |
29% |
38%[16] |
34% |
606 |
33+/-4% |
-1% |
+9% |
|
|
People Negative |
4% |
3% |
6%[16] |
606 |
6+/-2% |
-- |
|||
|
Net value |
25% |
35%[16] |
29%[16] |
606 |
27+/-5% |
-2% |
|||
|
Government Positive |
18% |
29%[16] |
24%[16] |
606 |
23+/-3% |
-1% |
-9% |
||
|
Government Negative |
6% |
6% |
6% |
606 |
6+/-2% |
-- |
|||
|
Net value |
12% |
23%[16] |
18%[16] |
606 |
18+/-4% |
-- |
|||
|
USA |
People Positive |
37% |
41% |
42% |
614 |
33+/-4% |
-9%[16] |
+32% |
|
|
People Negative |
8% |
6% |
8% |
614 |
10+/-2% |
+2% |
|||
|
Net value |
29% |
34% |
34% |
614 |
23+/-5% |
-11%[16] |
|||
|
Government Positive |
19% |
24%[16] |
24% |
614 |
20+/-3% |
-4% |
-32% |
||
|
Government Negative |
36% |
33% |
32% |
614 |
29+/-4% |
-3% |
|||
|
Net value |
-16% |
-8%[16] |
-8% |
614 |
-9+/-6% |
-1% |
|||
|
Russia |
People Positive |
22%[16] |
28%[16] |
27% |
658 |
26+/-3% |
-1% |
+25% |
|
|
People Negative |
5% |
5% |
8%[16] |
658 |
8+/-2% |
-- |
|||
|
Net value |
17% |
23%[16] |
20% |
658 |
19+/-4% |
-1% |
|||
|
Government Positive |
16% |
17% |
18% |
658 |
19+/-3% |
+1% |
-25% |
||
|
Government Negative |
25%[16] |
26% |
32%[16] |
658 |
25+/-3% |
-7%[16] |
|||
|
Net value |
-10% |
-9% |
-13% |
658 |
-6+/-5% |
+7%[16] |
|||
|
Philippines |
People Positive |
-- |
-- |
-- |
652 |
20+/-3% |
-- |
+39% |
|
|
People Negative |
-- |
-- |
-- |
652 |
27+/-3% |
-- |
|||
|
Net value |
-- |
-- |
-- |
652 |
-6+/-5% |
-- |
|||
|
Government Positive |
-- |
-- |
-- |
652 |
11+/-2% |
-- |
-39% |
||
|
Government Negative |
-- |
-- |
-- |
652 |
57+/-4% |
-- |
|||
|
Net value |
-- |
-- |
-- |
652 |
-46+/-5% |
-- |
|||
[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[13] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100
times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when
quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Comparison made with survey findings of 16-19/5/16.
[16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[17] In one decimal place, the respective net values of people’s feeling towards the people of Thailand and the United Kingdom are positive 39.4 and positive 39.3 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked sixth and seventh respectively.
Our latest findings showed that, as regards the results of people’s feeling towards different peoples, 41% felt positive towards Hong Kong people themselves while the net value is positive 28 percentage points. For the other cross-strait regions, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau peoples were 33%, 60% and 50% while their net values are positive 8, positive 56 and positive 48 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on peoples of other regions and countries, the net values for Singapore, Canada, Japan and Australia were highest, with positive 54, positive 49, positive 46 and positive 45 percentage points respectively, while those for Germany, Thailand, the United Kingdom, South Korea and France were positive 42, positive 39, positive 39, positive 34 and positive 27 percentage points correspondingly. Lastly, the net value of feeling towards the people of the United States, Russia and Philippines are positive 23, positive 19 and negative 6 percentage points only.
Regarding the results of people’s feeling towards different governments, 22% felt positive towards the HKSAR government while the net value is negative 17 percentage points. For the other cross-strait governments, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau governments were 28%, 29% and 43% while their net values are negative 6, positive 15 and positive 32 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on other governments, the net values for Canada, Australia, Singapore and Germany were the highest, with positive 48, positive 40, positive 38 and positive 34 percentage points correspondingly, while those for the United Kingdom, France and Thailand were positive 27, positive 18 and positive 2 percentage points correspondingly, those for Russia, the United States, South Korea, Japan and Philippines were negative 6, negative 9, negative 9, negative 21 and negative 46 percentage points correspondingly.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from May 16 to 19, 2016 while this survey was conducted from November 14 to 17, 2016. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
15/11/16 |
The High Court rules that Youngspiration’s Leung Chung-hang and Yau Wai-ching are disqualified as legislators. |
|
9/11/16 |
Donald Trump becomes the 45th President of the United States. |
|
7/11/16 |
The National People’s Congress passes the interpretation of Article 104 of the Basic Law. |
|
5/10/16 |
The secretary general of Demosistō Joshua Wong Chi-fung has been detained for 12 hours in Thailand. |
|
6/8/16 |
Media reports on the opening of Rio Olympics in Brazil. |
|
23/7/16 |
A gun rampage occurs at the Olympia shopping mall in Munich, Germany. |
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19/7/16 |
4 Hong Kong people are injured in the train attack in Germany. |
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15/7/16 |
A terrorist attack occurs in Nice, France on Bastille Day. |
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24/6/16 |
Britain votes to leave the European Union with 51.9% of the votes. |
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20/5/16 |
Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen delivers inauguration address. |
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of Public Opinion Programme, Frank Lee.
Our latest survey shows that, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards fellow Hongkongers is 45 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 41 percentage points higher than that towards the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 16 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 14 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. It should be noted that the net value of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards fellow Hong Kong people has again dropped to its record low since this survey started in 2007, which is another indicator of society’s polarization. As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, the United States and Russia whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them, except for the people of the Philippines. These findings are worth studying by various governments. Compared to 6 months ago, the net value of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards the people of Thailand has increased to its new high since 2007, while that towards the government of South Korea has dropped to its new low since 2007. As for reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design.
Future Release (Tentative)
- November 29, 2016 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government
