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Press Release on November 8, 2016

| Detailed Findings (People's Most Familiar Political Figures) |

Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 108 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong people between October 24 and 27 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. According to our latest survey, Leung Chun-ying continues to be the most visible political figure in Hong Kong. John Tsang ranks 2nd while Leung Kwok-hung ranks 3rd. Compared to 5 months ago, 9 people remain on the “top 10” list, only Ko Wing-man who ranked 10th last time has fallen out of the list after dropping to the 31st position. He is replaced by Starry Lee who has gone up from the 21st place to occupy the 9th place, John Tsang has gone up from the 7th place last time to occupy the 2nd place, while the rankings of other figures have not changed much. The ups and downs within the latest list should be good reflections of our changing political environment. If we would like to focus on long term development, we can use the overall rankings accumulated over five years. Figures show that Leung Chun-ying, Leung Kwok-hung, Carrie Lam, Donald Tsang and Wong Yuk-man are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong. The maximum sampling error of percentages of people’s most familiar political figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The response rate of this survey is 73%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the survey on people’s most familiar political figures, the sample size is 1,001 successful cases, not 1,001 x 72.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the survey results of people’s most familiar political figures. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of survey on people’s most familiar political figures:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages [6]
24-27/10/2016	1,001	72.9%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

This survey on people’s most familiar political figures has been conducted for many years, with results initially released through our publication POP Express until October 2006 when we began to release them online. Between 1994 and 2005, the survey was conducted and released in the form of “top 10 political figures” using our usual “top 10” or “top 5” series survey design, which involved both naming and rating stages. Starting from October 2005, we simplified our “top 10 political figures” survey by just recording and analyzing the “naming” results, because we have already developed over time numerous rating surveys covering CE, government officials, members of Legislative and Executive Councils, and so on. As for the rating part, we only conduct supplementary rating surveys to cover those listed in the top 10 political figures but not covered in other rating surveys. Take our latest survey as an example, our supplementary rating survey of Jasper Tsang, Wong Yuk-man, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa will be conducted later and the results will be uploaded onto our POP Site in due course. Moreover, in our presentation of findings, different from the other “top 10” rating series, we introduced rankings from 1 to 50 for “people’s most familiar political figures”, as well as average accumulative rankings calculated from the past 10 surveys spanning over about five years, in order to indicate the ups-and-downs of these political figures in the long run. Please refer to our POP Site for details. Herewith the result of our latest survey on “people’s most familiar political figures”, other rankings beyond the “Top 10” can be found in the POP Site:

Date of survey	8-14/5/15		2-5/11/15		3-5/5/16		24-27/10/16		Average ranking over the past 10 surveys [9]
Sample base	1,029[8]		1,008[8]		1,000[8]		1,001[8]		--
Overall response rate	67.4%		66.4%		69.7%		72.9%		--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)[7]	+/-3%		+/-3%		+/-3%		+/-3%		--
Latest finding / Rank	%	Rank	%	Rank	%	Rank	%	Rank	--
Leung Chun-ying	57%	1	39%[10]	1	41%	1	35%+/-4%	1	1.2
John Tsang	16%	12	22%[11]	6	21% [13]	7	32%+/-4%	2	10.7
Leung Kwok-hung	31%	3	22%[11]	5	36%	2	30%+/-4%	3	2.7
Jasper Tsang	21%	7	24%	3	28%	4	28%+/-4%	4	6.1
Regina Ip	22%	6	18%[12]	8	21% [13]	6	27%+/-4%	5	6.1
Carrie Lam	32%	2	39%[10]	2	33%	3	24%+/-3%	6	4.9
Wong Yuk-man	18%	9	20%	7	24%	5	18%+/-3%	7	5.9
Donald Tsang	23%	5	23%	4	18%	8	17%+/-3%	8	5.4
Starry Lee	7%	24	3%	38	7%	21	16%+/-3%	9	27.8
Tung Chee-hwa	24%	4	18%[12]	9	17%	9	15%+/-3%	10	9.2

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[8] The sub-sample size in May 2015 was 671, that in November 2015 was 650, that in May 2016 was 617, and that in October 2016 was 621.

[9] The earliest of the past 10 surveys was conducted during July 17 to 20, 2012. For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.

[10] Based on the figures in November 2015 survey, the percentages of respondents who named Leung Chun-ying and Carrie Lam were 39.15% and 39.13% respectively, so Leung Chun-ying and Carrie Lam ranked the 1st and 2nd.

[11] Based on the figures in November 2015 survey, the percentages of respondents who named Leung Kwok-hung and John Tsang were 22.1% and 21.5% respectively, so Leung Kwok-hung and John Tsang ranked the 5th and 6th.

[12] Based on the figures in November 2015 survey, the percentages of respondents who named Regina Ip and Tung Chee-hwa were 18.4% and 18.3% respectively, so Regina Ip and Tung Chee-hwa ranked the 8th and 9th.

[13] Based on the figures in May 2016, the percentages of respondents who named Regina Ip and John Tsang were 21.5% and 20.6% respectively, so Regina Ip and John Tsang ranked the 6th and 7th.

In our naming survey conducted from late October, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Leung Chun-ying, John Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung were the top three. The corresponding percentages of respondents who named these figures were 35%, 32% and 30%. Jasper Tsang, Regina Ip, and Carrie Lam occupied the 4th to 6th places, with 28%, 27% and 24% of respondents naming them respectively. The 7th to 10th ranks fell to Wong Yuk-man, Donald Tsang, Starry Lee and Tung Chee-hwa respectively, and percentages of respondents who named these figures were 18%, 17%, 16% and 15%. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. For easy reference, POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since March 1997. It should be noted that during the fieldwork period of this survey, retired judge Woo Kwok-hing announced his intention to run for the Chief Executive post. His popularity ranking per day surged from zero mentions on the first two days, to 81st on the third day, then 35th on the fourth day. However, his overall ranking of 67th is still way behind other political figures.

Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:

7-11/11/2011──3-5/5/2016 [14]							17-20/7/2012──24-27/10/2016 [14]
Overall rank	Political figures	Av. rank for 10 surveys		Over all rank	Political figures	Av. rank for 10 surveys	Overall rank	Political figures	Av. rank for 10 surveys		Over all rank	Political figures	Av. rank for 10 surveys
1	Leung Chun-ying	1.8		11	Emily Lau	12.4	1	Leung Chun-ying	1.2		11	Emily Lau	12.1
2	Leung Kwok-hung	2.8		12	Henry Tang	12.4	2	Leung Kwok-hung	2.7		12	Henry Tang	14.1
3	Donald Tsang	4.7		13	Albert Ho	12.7	3	Carrie Lam	4.9		13	Martin Lee	14.8
4	Wong Yuk-man	5.8		14	Martin Lee	14.7	4	Donald Tsang	5.4		14	Albert Ho	14.8
5	Regina Ip	5.9		15	Alan Leong	15.5	5	Wong Yuk-man	5.9		15	Rita Fan	16.3
6	Jasper Tsang	7.0		16	Lee Cheuk-yan	15.5	6	Regina Ip	6.1		16	Alan Leong	17.1
7	Carrie Lam	7.9		17	Rita Fan	15.8	6	Jasper Tsang	6.1		17	Lee Cheuk-yan	17.8
8	Tung Chee-hwa	9.9		18	Tam Yiu-chung	16.4	8	Tung Chee-hwa	9.2		18	Tam Yiu-chung	19.0
9	Anson Chan	10.1		19	Audrey Eu	18.7	9	Anson Chan	10.4		19	James Tien	20.5
10	John Tsang	12.0		20	Albert Chan	20.3	10	John Tsang	10.7		20	Audrey Eu	21.1

[14] For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.

Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Leung Chun-ying has the highest overall rank with an average ranking of 1.2. The overall ranks of Leung Kwok-hung and Carrie Lam come 2nd and 3rd respectively, with average rankings of 2.7 and 4.9. The overall ranks of Donald Tsang and Wong Yuk-man come 4th and 5th respectively, with average rankings of 5.4 and 5.9. Jasper Tsang and Regina Ip share the 6th overall rank, both with an average ranking of 6.1. The 8th to 10th overall ranks go to Tung Chee-hwa, Anson Chan and John Tsang with corresponding average rankings of 9.2, 10.4 and 10.7.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from May 3 to 5, 2016, while this survey was conducted from October 24 to 27, 2016. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

26/10/16	Retired judge Woo Kwok-hing announces he will run for the Chief Executive.
25/10/16	Andrew Leung, President of the Legislative Council, decides to defer oath-taking of Leung Chung-hang and Yau Wai-ching.
19/10/16	Pro-establishment lawmakers stage walk-out to prevent localist Councilors from retaking oaths.
18/10/16	Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying and Secretary for Justice Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung apply for judicial review against Legislative Council’s decision of permitting Leung Chung-hang and Yau Wai-ching to retake their oaths.
12/10/16	The sixth Legislative Council holds its first meeting.
5/10/16	The secretary general of Demosistō Joshua Wong Chi-fung has been detained for 12 hours in Thailand.
21/9/16	Chief Executive CY Leung admits he made the decision to scale down Wang Chau housing project.
20/9/16	CY Leung and John Tsang respond to queries on Wang Chau development project respectively.
8/9/16	Newly elected lawmaker Eddie Chu Hoi-dick claims he has received “credible death threats” towards him.
5/9/16	Announcement of 2016 Legislative Council election results.
21/7/16	Joshua Wong Chi-fung and Alex Chow Yong-kang are found guilty of unlawful assembly while Nathan Law Kwun-chung is convicted of inciting others to take part in an unlawful assembly.

Commentary

Edward Chit-Fai Tai, Senior Data Analyst of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “The purpose of our ranking of political figures is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. According to our latest survey, Leung Chun-ying continues to be the most visible political figure in Hong Kong. John Tsang ranks 2nd while Leung Kwok-hung ranks 3rd. Compared to 5 months ago, 9 people remain on the ‘top 10’ list, only Ko Wing-man who ranked 10th last time has fallen out of the list after dropping to the 31st position. He is replaced by Starry Lee who has gone up from the 21st place to occupy the 9th place, John Tsang has gone up from the 7th place last time to occupy the 2nd place, while the rankings of other figures have not changed much. The ups and downs within the latest list should be good reflections of our changing political environment. If we would like to focus on long term development, we can use the overall rankings accumulated over five years. Figures show that Leung Chun-ying, Leung Kwok-hung, Carrie Lam, Donald Tsang and Wong Yuk-man are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of ‘people’s most familiar political figures’ is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these rankings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

• November 15, 2016 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials

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Everything carried in this website does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles and messages posted at the opinion platforms. Any responsibility, legal and otherwise, arising from any such item shall vest entirely with its author. The intellectual property of all information contained in this website, including questionnaire design and research reports, originally belongs to HKU POP unless specified otherwise. HKU POP opens their copyright to the world via this website, but would request all users to acknowledge their source properly.

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Last update :  26/6/2019