HKU POP releases ratings of top 10 political groupsBack
Press Release on October 25, 2016
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Top Ten Political Groups) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 107 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP conducted a double stage survey on the rankings of the top 10 political groups in September and October, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey of “Top 10 Political Groups” conducted two weeks ago shows that the popularity of all political groups have gone up after the LegCo election. However, only NWS has reached 50 marks or above. In terms of support ratings, compared to six months ago, except NPP, the support ratings of 9 out of 10 political groups have gone up significantly. Compared to the last survey, 8 out of 10 political groups in the last survey have managed to maintain their places in the “top 10”, while NWS and NPP enter the list to replace Scholarism and HKI. In terms of relative rankings, NWS re-enters and tops the list again after June 2014. CP remains at the second place, DP goes up two positions to rank 3rd, LP goes down three positions to rank 4th, Labour Party goes up one position to rank 5th, FTU and DAB go down three positions respectively to rank 6th and 7th, NPP re-enters the list to rank 8th, while LSD and PP go down two positions respectively to rank 9th and 10th. It should be noted, however, that our “Top 10 Political Groups” only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings of top ten political groups registered fall between +/-1.6 and +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 68%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey of top 10 political groups is 510 successful interviews, not 510 x 75.9% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is other 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 68.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Overall
|
Response rate |
Sampling error of percentages/ratings[6] |
|
26-27/9/2016 (First stage naming survey) |
510 |
75.9% |
+/-4% |
|
10-13/10/2016 (Second stage rating survey) |
1,004 |
68.4% |
+/-2.8 |
[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
The research design of our “Top ten political groups” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from September 26 to 27. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP), Civic Party (CP), Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) and Liberal Party (LP) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted from October 10 to 13, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:
|
Date of survey |
27/4-3/5/2015 |
19-23/10/2015 |
18-21/4/2016 |
10-13/10/2016 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample base |
556-616 |
586-676 |
557-684 |
503-680 |
-- |
|
|
Overall response rate |
63.0% |
66.8% |
68.6% |
68.4% |
-- |
|
|
Finding / Recog rate |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error [7] |
Recog % |
-- |
|
NWS |
47.6[8] |
46.4[8] |
45.1[8] |
54.3+/-1.9{1} |
78.8% |
+9.2[9] |
|
CP |
42.2{7} |
44.9{2}[9] |
44.4{2} |
49.6+/-2.1{2} |
85.7% |
+5.2[9] |
|
DP |
42.1{8}[9] |
44.4{3}[9] |
41.1{5}[9] |
49.0+/-2.0{3} |
90.9% |
+7.9[9] |
|
LP |
45.2{5}[9] |
44.2{4} |
44.7{1} |
48.6+/-1.6{4} |
87.0% |
+3.9[9] |
|
Labour Party |
44.4{6}[9] |
41.2[8] [9] |
40.3{6} |
47.6+/-2.0{5} |
81.0% |
+7.3[9] |
|
FTU |
48.2{2}[9] |
43.0{5}[9] [10] |
42.7{3} |
47.3+/-2.2{6} |
89.3% |
+4.6[9] |
|
DAB |
49.0{1}[9] |
41.8{7}[9] |
41.5{4} |
44.5+/-2.4{7} |
92.7% |
+3.0[9] |
|
NPP |
44.3[8] [9] |
38.5{8}[9] |
43.0[8] [9] |
44.1+/-2.2{8} |
80.4% |
+1.1 |
|
LSD |
35.1{9} |
36.1{9} |
34.8{7} |
39.6+/-2.1{9} |
84.3% |
+4.8[9] |
|
PP |
33.5{10} |
33.0{10} |
33.5{8} |
37.7+/-2.3{10} |
89.1% |
+4.2[9] |
|
Youngspiration |
-- |
-- |
-- |
40.3+/-2.8[8] |
67.9% |
-- |
|
Civic Passion |
-- |
-- |
-- |
32.3+/-2.5[8] |
75.5% |
-- |
|
Scholarism |
-- |
-- |
32.1{9} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
HKI |
-- |
-- |
29.4{10} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
ADPL |
47.4{3} |
46.0{1} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
HKCTU |
45.5{4}[9] |
43.0{6}[9] [10] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[10] In two decimal places, the ratings of FTU and HKCTU are 43.02 and 42.96 respectively. Therefore, FTU and HKCTU ranked at 5th and 6th places respectively.
Findings obtained from first half of October showed that, the most popular political group was Neighbourhood and Worker’s Service Centre (NWS) which attained 54.3 marks. Civic Party (CP), Democratic Party (DP), Liberal Party (LP), Labour Party and Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) scored 49.6, 49.0, 48.6, 47.6 and 47.3 marks respectively and ranked 2nd to 6th. The 7th and 10th places went to Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), New People’s Party (NPP), League of Social Democrats (LSD) and People Power (PP), attaining 44.5, 44.1, 39.6 and 37.7 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 49.8 marks. For this latest survey, Youngspiration and Civic Passion obtained a support rating of 40.3 and 32.3 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 4 surveys are tabulated as follows:
|
Date of survey |
27/4-3/5/15 |
19-23/10/15 |
18-21/4/16 |
10-13/10/16 |
No. of times on top 10 |
Average rating[11] |
Overall ranking[12] |
|
LP |
45.2 |
44.2 |
44.7 |
48.6 |
4 |
45.7 |
{1} |
|
FTU |
48.2 |
43.0 |
42.7 |
47.3 |
4 |
45.3[13] |
{2} |
|
CP |
42.2 |
44.9 |
44.4 |
49.6 |
4 |
45.3[13] |
{3} |
|
DAB |
49.0 |
41.8 |
41.5 |
44.5 |
4 |
44.2 |
{4} |
|
DP |
42.1 |
44.4 |
41.1 |
49.0 |
4 |
44.1 |
{5} |
|
LSD |
35.1 |
36.1 |
34.8 |
39.6 |
4 |
36.4 |
{6} |
|
PP |
33.5 |
33.0 |
33.5 |
37.7 |
4 |
34.4 |
{7} |
|
Labour Party |
44.4 |
-- |
40.3 |
47.6 |
3 |
44.1 |
{8} |
|
ADPL |
47.4 |
46.0 |
-- |
-- |
2 |
46.7 |
{9} |
|
HKCTU |
45.5 |
43.0 |
-- |
-- |
2 |
44.2 |
{10} |
|
NPP |
-- |
38.5 |
-- |
44.1 |
2 |
41.3 |
{11} |
|
NWS |
-- |
-- |
-- |
54.3 |
1 |
54.3 |
{12} |
|
Scholarism |
-- |
-- |
32.1 |
-- |
1 |
32.1 |
{13} |
|
HKI |
-- |
-- |
29.4 |
-- |
1 |
29.4 |
{14} |
[11] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 4 surveys.
[12] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[13] In two decimal places, the ratings of FTU and CP are 45.30 and 45.27 respectively. Therefore, FTU and CP ranked at 2nd and 3rd places respectively.
The overall rankings in the past 4 surveys showed that, seven political groups were listed for four times, LP achieved an average rating of 45.7 and rank first. Meanwhile, the 2nd to 7th ranks fell to FTU, CP, DAB, DP, LSD and PP, with respective average ratings of 45.3, 45.3, 44.2, 44.1, 36.4 and 34.4 marks. Labour Party was listed three times and ranked the 8th with an average rating of 44.1 marks. ADPL, HKCTU and NPP were listed twice with average ratings of 46.7, 44.2 and 41.3 marks respectively, now ranked the 9th to 11th. Furthermore, NWS, Scholarism and HKI were listed once with ratings of 54.3, 32.1 and 29.4 marks respectively, now ranking the 12th to 14th.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from April 18 to 21, 2016 while this survey was conducted from October 10 to 13, 2016. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
13/10/16 |
Media reports on the issue of Legislative Council Oath. |
|
12/10/16 |
The sixth Legislative Council holds its first meeting. |
|
5/10/16 |
The secretary general of Demosistō Joshua Wong Chi-fung has been detained for 12 hours in Thailand. |
|
21/9/16 |
Chief Executive CY Leung admits he made the decision to scale down Wang Chau housing project. |
|
17/9/16 |
The government admits that Chief Executive CY Leung has chaired a meeting on Wang Chau land development. |
|
8/9/16 |
Newly elected lawmaker Eddie Chu Hoi-dick claims he has received “credible death threats” towards him. |
|
4/9/16 |
More than 2 million voters cast their votes in 2016 Legislative Council election. |
|
2/8/16 |
A total of seven nominations of the Legislative Council election are decided invalid. |
|
20/7/16 |
Zhang Xiaoming, Director of the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government, comments on the pro-independence candidates running in the Legislative Council elections. |
|
14/7/16 |
All candidates of the next Legislative Council election will be required to sign the declaration that they will uphold the Basic Law. |
|
17/6/16 |
Media reports on Causeway Bay bookstore’s bookseller Lam Wing-kee revealed details of his disappearance in a press conference. |
Commentary
Frank Wai-Kin Lee, Research Manager of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey of ‘Top 10 Political Groups’ conducted two weeks ago shows that the popularity of all political groups have gone up after the LegCo election. However, only NWS has reached 50 marks or above. In terms of support ratings, compared to six months ago, except NPP, the support ratings of 9 out of 10 political groups have gone up significantly. Compared to the last survey, 8 out of 10 political groups in the last survey have managed to maintain their places in the ‘top 10’, while NWS and NPP enter the list to replace Scholarism and HKI. In terms of relative rankings, NWS re-enters and tops the list again after June 2014. CP remains at the second place, DP goes up two positions to rank 3rd, LP goes down three positions to rank 4th, Labour Party goes up one position to rank 5th, FTU and DAB go down three positions respectively to rank 6th and 7th, NPP re-enters the list to rank 8th, while LSD and PP go down two positions respectively to rank 9th and 10th. It should be noted, however, that our ‘Top 10 Political Groups’ only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. As to what events have affected the ups and downs of the popularity of these groups, readers can make their own judgment after reading through detailed records placed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”
Future Release (Tentative)
- November 1, 2016 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government
