HKU POP releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack
Press Release on October 18, 2016
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Top Ten Legislative Councillors) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 107 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP conducted a double stage survey on the ratings of Legislative Councillors in September and October, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The latest survey of top 10 Legislative Councillors shows that after the election, in terms of familiarity, four newly elected councillors, namely Eddie Chu, Nathan Law, Yau Wai-ching and Holden Chow, enter the “top 10” list. Among the re-elected councillors, Michael Tien, Regina Ip and Leung Kwok-hung remain on the list, while James To, Starry Lee and Raymond Chan also re-enters the list. In terms of absolute ratings, out of the 5 councillors in the “top 10” list who were also rated last time, the scores of 4 have gone up, 1 has gone down. Among them, the rises in James To and Leung Kwok-hung’s ratings have gone beyond sampling errors. In terms of relative rankings, James To re-enters the list since October 2014 to rank first. Eddie Chu newly enters the list and ranks second. Michael Tien goes down one position to rank third. Starry Lee re-enters the list to rank fourth. Regina Ip goes down two positions to rank fifth. Raymond Chan enters the list for the first time and ranks sixth. Nathan Law newly enters the list to rank seventh. Leung Kwok-hung goes up one position to rank eighth. Yau Wai-ching and Holden Chow newly enter the list to rank ninth and tenth. It should be noted however that our list of “top 10” only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 60 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the “top 10” list by design. The maximum sampling error of the ratings registered is +/-2.9 marks at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the rating survey is 68%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 510 successful interviews, not 510 x 75.9% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 68.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling errors of various ratings are not more than +/-2.9. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling errors of various ratings not more than +/-2.9 at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of the top ten Legislative Councillors. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings[6] |
|
26-27/9/2016 (First stage naming survey) |
510 |
75.9% |
+/-4% |
|
10-13/10/2016 (Second stage rating survey) |
1,004 |
68.4% |
+/-2.9 |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
The research design of our “Top 10 Legislative Councillors” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from September 26 to 27. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 councillors whom they knew best. Regina Ip, Leung Kwok-hung, Eddie Chu, Starry Lee and James To were the top 5 councillors mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted from October 10 to 13, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:
|
Date of survey |
18-21/1/2016 |
11-14/4/2016 |
11-14/7/2016 |
10-13/10/2016 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample base[7] |
578-680 |
562-671 |
566-670 |
503-685 |
-- |
|
|
Overall response rate |
67.2% |
69.0% |
72.1% |
68.4% |
-- |
|
|
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[7] |
Recognition rate |
-- |
|
James To |
-- |
-- |
49.1[9] |
57.3+/-2.0{1} |
88.1% |
+8.2[8] |
|
Eddie Chu |
--[10] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
56.5+/-2.8{2} |
77.1% |
-- |
|
Michael Tien |
49.9{3}[8] |
-- |
53.7{2} |
53.9+/-1.8{3} |
94.0% |
+0.2 |
|
Starry Lee |
-- |
45.6{4} |
46.6[9] |
48.7+/-2.4{4} |
89.2% |
+2.1 |
|
Regina Ip |
44.6{5}[8] |
49.6{2}[8] |
49.3{3} |
48.4+/-2.6{5} |
94.8% |
-0.9 |
|
Raymond Chan |
-- |
42.1[9] |
-- |
45.5+/-2.6{6} |
75.6% |
-- |
|
Nathan Law |
--[10] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
45.4+/-2.7{7} |
64.5% |
-- |
|
Leung Kwok-hung |
36.6{8} |
38.8{8} |
36.5{9} |
39.8+/-2.5{8} |
94.9% |
+3.3[8] |
|
Yau Wai-ching |
--[10] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
37.4+/-2.9{9} |
62.5% |
-- |
|
Holden Chow |
--[10] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
36.7+/-2.7{10} |
71.2% |
-- |
|
Kwong Chun-yu |
--[10] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
53.8+/-2.5[9] |
59.0% |
-- |
|
Lau Siu-lai |
--[10] |
--[10] |
--[10] |
43.3+/-2.7[9] |
60.3% |
-- |
|
Jasper Tsang |
59.7{1}[8] |
63.1{1}[8] |
65.9{1}[8] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Emily Lau |
46.3{4} |
44.1{5}[8] |
46.6{4}[8] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Alan Leong |
-- |
48.2{3} |
44.8{5}[8] |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Tam Yiu-chung |
-- |
44.8[9] |
43.1{6} |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Lee Cheuk-yan |
43.8{6} |
42.3{7} |
41.5{7} |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Albert Ho |
39.1{7}[8] |
42.6{6}[8] |
40.6{8} |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Wong Yuk-man |
35.3{10} |
35.6{10} |
35.0{10} |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Albert Chan |
36.1{9} |
37.6{9} |
-- |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
James Tien |
51.7{2}[8] |
-- |
-- |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
|
Ann Chiang |
31.3[9] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Christopher Chung |
27.9[9] |
-- |
-- |
--[10] |
-- |
-- |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.9 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. Starting from 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, with variable sub-sample size for each question. In latest survey, the sub-sample size of the questions varies between 503 and 685, and its effect has already been reflected in the sampling errors.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in the rating stage of survey are not counted.
[10] Not a Legislative Councillor during the survey period.
The latest survey showed that James To was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 57.3 marks. Eddie Chu and Michael Tien ranked the 2nd and 3rd with 56.5 and 53.9 marks correspondingly. The 4th to 7th ranks went to Starry Lee, Regina Ip, Raymond Chan and Nathan Law who attained 48.7, 48.4, 45.5 and 45.4 marks respectively. Leung Kwok-hung, Yau Wai-ching and Holden Chow ranked the 8th to 10th, attaining 39.8, 37.4 and 36.7 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 53.0 marks, while that for the top 10 was 47.0 marks. For this latest survey, Kwong Chun-yu and Lau Siu-lai obtained support ratings of 53.8 and 43.3 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past four surveys are tabulated as follows:
|
Date of survey |
18-21/1/16 |
11-14/4/16 |
11-14/7/16 |
10-13/10/16 |
No. of times on top 10 |
Average rating[11] |
Overall ranking[12] |
|
Regina Ip |
44.6 |
49.6 |
49.3 |
48.4 |
4 |
48.0 |
1 |
|
Leung Kwok-hung |
36.6 |
38.8 |
36.5 |
39.8 |
4 |
37.9 |
2 |
|
Jasper Tsang |
59.7 |
63.1 |
65.9 |
--[13] |
3 |
62.9 |
3 |
|
Michael Tien |
49.9 |
-- |
53.7 |
53.9 |
3 |
52.5 |
4 |
|
Emily Lau |
46.3 |
44.1 |
46.6 |
--[13] |
3 |
45.7 |
5 |
|
Lee Cheuk-yan |
43.8 |
42.3 |
41.5 |
--[13] |
3 |
42.5 |
6 |
|
Albert Ho |
39.1 |
42.6 |
40.6 |
--[13] |
3 |
40.7 |
7 |
|
Wong Yuk-man |
35.3 |
35.6 |
35.0 |
--[13] |
3 |
35.3 |
8 |
|
Starry Lee |
-- |
45.6 |
-- |
48.7 |
2 |
47.1 |
9 |
|
Alan Leong |
-- |
48.2 |
44.8 |
--[13] |
2 |
46.5 |
10 |
|
Albert Chan |
36.1 |
37.6 |
-- |
--[13] |
2 |
36.9 |
11 |
|
James To |
-- |
-- |
-- |
57.3 |
1 |
57.3 |
12 |
|
Eddie Chu |
--[13] |
--[13] |
--[13] |
56.5 |
1 |
56.5 |
13 |
|
James Tien |
51.7 |
-- |
-- |
--[13] |
1 |
51.7 |
14 |
|
Raymond Chan |
-- |
-- |
-- |
45.5 |
1 |
45.5 |
15 |
|
Nathan Law |
--[13] |
--[13] |
--[13] |
45.4 |
1 |
45.4 |
16 |
|
Tam Yiu-chung |
-- |
-- |
43.1 |
--[13] |
1 |
43.1 |
17 |
|
Yau Wai-ching |
--[13] |
--[13] |
--[13] |
37.4 |
1 |
37.4 |
18 |
|
Holden Chow |
--[13] |
--[13] |
--[13] |
36.7 |
1 |
36.7 |
19 |
[11] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past four surveys.
[12] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
[13] Not a Legislative Councillor during the survey period.
The overall rankings in the past four surveys showed that after the election, among the current Legislative Councillors, only Regina Ip and Leung Kwok-hung have been on the list for four times, with average ratings of 48.0 and 37.9 marks respectively. Michael Tien has been on the list for three times attaining 52.5 marks on average. Starry Lee has been on the list twice with an average score of 47.1. James To, Eddie Chu, Raymond Chan, Nathan Law, Yau Wai-ching and Holden Chow have been on the list once, with 57.3, 56.5, 45.5, 45.4, 37.4 and 36.7 marks correspondingly.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from July 11 to 14, 2016, while this survey was conducted from October 10 to 13, 2016. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
13/10/16 |
Media reports on the issue of Legislative Council Oath. |
|
12/10/16 |
The sixth Legislative Council holds its first meeting. |
|
5/10/16 |
The secretary general of Demosistō Joshua Wong Chi-fung has been detained for 12 hours in Thailand. |
|
21/9/16 |
Chief Executive CY Leung admits he made the decision to scale down Wang Chau housing project. |
|
20/9/16 |
CY Leung and John Tsang respond to queries on Wang Chau development project respectively. |
|
17/9/16 |
The government admits that Chief Executive CY Leung has chaired a meeting on Wang Chau land development. |
|
8/9/16 |
Newly elected lawmaker Eddie Chu Hoi-dick claims he has received “credible death threats” towards him. |
|
4/9/16 |
More than 2 million voters cast their votes in 2016 Legislative Council election. |
|
2/8/16 |
A total of seven nominations of the Legislative Council election are decided invalid. |
|
21/7/16 |
Joshua Wong Chi-fung and Alex Chow Yong-kang are found guilty of unlawful assembly while Nathan Law Kwun-chung is convicted of inciting others to take part in an unlawful assembly. |
|
14/7/16 |
All candidates of the next Legislative Council election will be required to sign the declaration that they will uphold the Basic Law. |
Commentary
Edward Chit-Fai Tai, Senior Data Analyst of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “The latest survey of top 10 Legislative Councillors shows that after the election, in terms of familiarity, four newly elected councillors, namely Eddie Chu, Nathan Law, Yau Wai-ching and Holden Chow, enter the ‘top 10’ list. Among the re-elected councillors, Michael Tien, Regina Ip and Leung Kwok-hung remain on the list, while James To, Starry Lee and Raymond Chan also re-enters the list. In terms of absolute ratings, out of the 5 councillors in the ‘top 10’ list who were also rated last time, the scores of 4 have gone up, 1 has gone down. Among them, the rises in James To and Leung Kwok-hung’s ratings have gone beyond sampling errors. In terms of relative rankings, James To re-enters the list since October 2014 to rank first. Eddie Chu newly enters the list and ranks second. Michael Tien goes down one position to rank third. Starry Lee re-enters the list to rank fourth. Regina Ip goes down two positions to rank fifth. Raymond Chan enters the list for the first time and ranks sixth. Nathan Law newly enters the list to rank seventh. Leung Kwok-hung goes up one position to rank eighth. Yau Wai-ching and Holden Chow newly enter the list to rank ninth and tenth. It should be noted that our list of ‘top 10’ only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 60 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the ‘top 10’ list by design. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of these popularity ratings using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page.”
Future Release (Tentative)
- October 25, 2016 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 political groups
