HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack
Press Release on September 27, 2016
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 105 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 106th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,012 Hong Kong people between 19 and 22 September 2016 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that, after a significant drop of 2.5 marks in early September, CE CY Leung’s rating has significantly rebounded by 2.2 marks in the second half of September to 38.7, but is still below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 22%, disapproval rate 65%, giving a net popularity of negative 43 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has also increased compared to a month ago, but all changes registered are within sampling errors. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 25%, dissatisfaction rate 47%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 22 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, all five items continued to register negative values. They are maintaining economic prosperity at negative 7 percentage points, handling of its relation with the Central Government at negative 13 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 18 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 27 percentage points and developing democracy at negative 35 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, the net satisfaction rates of two among the five indicators have increased, while three have decreased. Among them, only the increase of protection of human rights and freedom has gone beyond sampling error. Meanwhile, the net satisfaction of developing democracy has dropped to its record low since July 2003. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 72%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee, reprints the abstracts of two articles written by Director of POP, Robert Chung, before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,012 successful interviews, not 1,012 x 72.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
19-22/9/2016 |
1,012 |
72.4% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people’s satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
4-7/7/16 |
18-21/7/16 |
5-11/8/16 |
19-25/8/16 |
5-8/9/16 |
19-22/9/16 |
Latest Change |
|
Sample base |
1,004 |
1,013 |
1,004 |
1,003 |
1,001 |
1,012 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
68.9% |
73.6% |
72.4% |
71.4% |
73.5% |
72.4% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error[7] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE CY Leung |
40.1 |
40.1 |
40.8 |
39.0 |
36.5[9] |
38.7+/-1.9 |
+2.2[9] |
|
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung |
22% |
19%[9] |
22% |
19%[9] |
18% |
22+/-3% |
+4%[9] |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung |
58% |
63%[9] |
61% |
63% |
64% |
65+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate |
-36%[9] |
-44%[9] |
-39% |
-44% |
-46% |
-43+/-5% |
+3% |
|
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[8] |
-- |
23% |
-- |
23% |
-- |
25+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[8] |
-- |
51% |
-- |
48% |
-- |
47+/-4% |
-1% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-- |
-28% |
-- |
-25% |
-- |
-22+/-7% |
+3% |
|
Mean value[8] |
-- |
2.5
|
-- |
2.5
|
-- |
2.6+/-0.1 (Base=577) |
+0.1 |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 589.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 38.7 marks, and 22% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 43 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 25% were satisfied, whereas 47% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 22 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.
Recent figures on people’s appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows, in descending order of net satisfaction rates:
|
Date of survey |
16-22/9/15 |
16-21/12/15 |
17-22/3/16 |
20-23/6/16 |
19-22/9/16 |
Latest Change[10] |
|
Sample base[10] |
544-648 |
605-711 |
549-610 |
550-613 |
576-612 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
64.0% |
66.6% |
68.1% |
69.5% |
72.4% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[11] |
-- |
|
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate[12] |
29%[13] |
30% |
32% |
32% |
33+/-4% |
+1% |
|
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate[12] |
45%[13] |
41% |
47%[13] |
38%[13] |
40+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-16%[13] |
-11% |
-15% |
-6%[13] |
-7+/-7% |
-1% |
|
Mean value[12] |
2.7[13]
|
2.7 (Base=654) |
2.7 (Base=555) |
2.8 (Base=570) |
2.8+/-0.1 (Base=599) |
-- |
|
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate[12] |
33% |
37% |
39% |
31%[13] |
31+/-4% |
-- |
|
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate[12] |
42%[13] |
34%[13] |
38% |
46%[13] |
44+/-4% |
-2% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-9%[13] |
3%[13] |
1% |
-15%[13] |
-13+/-7% |
+2% |
|
Mean value[12] |
2.7[13]
|
2.9[13] (Base=554) |
2.9 (Base=540) |
2.6[13] (Base=569) |
2.7+/-0.1 (Base=531) |
+0.1 |
|
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate[12] |
30% |
32% |
31% |
23%[13] |
31+/-4% |
+8%[13] |
|
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate[12] |
47%[13] |
47% |
48% |
53%[13] |
49+/-4% |
-4% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-17%[13] |
-15% |
-16% |
-31%[13] |
-18+/-7% |
+13%[13] |
|
Mean value[12] |
2.6[13]
|
2.6 (Base=678) |
2.6 (Base=528) |
2.4[13] (Base=534) |
2.6+/-0.1 (Base=573) |
+0.2[13] |
|
Improving people’s livelihood: Satisfaction rate[12] |
22%[13] |
27%[13] |
25% |
25% |
26+/-4% |
+1% |
|
Improving people’s livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate[12] |
51%[13] |
47% |
56%[13] |
49%[13] |
52+/-4% |
+3% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-29%[13] |
-19%[13] |
-31%[13] |
-25% |
-27+/-7% |
-2% |
|
Mean value[12] |
2.5[13]
|
2.6 (Base=616) |
2.4[13] (Base=602) |
2.5 (Base=538) |
2.5+/-0.1 (Base=584) |
-- |
|
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate[12] |
20%[13] |
25%[13] |
25% |
20%[13] |
21+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate[12] |
53%[13] |
51% |
53% |
53% |
55+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-32%[13] |
-26% |
-28% |
-33% |
-35+/-7% |
-2% |
|
Mean value[12] |
2.4
|
2.5 (Base=653) |
2.4 (Base=561) |
2.3 (Base=550) |
2.3+/-0.1 (Base=568) |
-- |
[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the Government’s performance in maintaining economic prosperity, with a net satisfaction rate of negative 7 percentage points. The Government’s handling of its relation with the Central Government and performance in protecting human rights and freedom followed, attaining a net satisfaction rate of negative 13 and negative 18 percentage points respectively. That in improving people’s livelihood attained a net satisfaction rate of negative 27 percentage points. Finally, the net satisfaction rate of the Government’s performance in developing democracy stands at negative 35 percentage points. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 2.8, 2.7, 2.6, 2.5 and 2.3 respectively, which are in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 20 to 23 June, 2016 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 22 September, 2016. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
21/9/16 |
Chief Executive CY Leung says he made the decision to scale down Wang Chau housing project. |
|
17/9/16 |
The government admits that Chief Executive CY Leung had chaired a meeting on Wang Chau land development. |
|
8/9/16 |
Newly elected lawmaker Eddie Chu Hoi-dick claims he has received “credible death threats” towards him. |
|
4/9/16 |
More than 2 million voters cast their votes in 2016 Legislative Council election. |
|
22/8/16 |
Media reports on the issues of China’s Olympic gold medal winners visiting Hong Kong. |
|
19/8/16 |
Media reports on the contaminated pork that have been sent to the retailers. |
|
16/8/16 |
The State Council approves the implementation plan for Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. |
|
2/8/16 |
A total of seven nominations of the Legislative Council election are decided invalid. |
|
21/7/16 |
Joshua Wong Chi-fung and Alex Chow Yong-kang are found guilty of unlawful assembly while Nathan Law Kwun-chung is convicted of inciting others to take part in an unlawful assembly. |
|
14/7/16 |
All candidates of the next Legislative Council election will be required to sign the declaration that they will uphold the Basic Law. |
|
20/6/16 |
Media reports on Causeway Bay bookstore’s bookseller Lam Wing-kee revealed details of his disappearance. |
Commentary
Frank Wai-Kin Lee, Research Manager of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey shows that, after a significant drop of 2.5 marks in early September, CE CY Leung’s rating has significantly rebounded by 2.2 marks in the second half of September to 38.7, but is still below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 22%, disapproval rate 65%, giving a net popularity of negative 43 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has also increased compared to a month ago, but all changes registered are within sampling errors. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 25%, dissatisfaction rate 47%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 22 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, all five items continued to register negative values. They are maintaining economic prosperity at negative 7 percentage points, handling of its relation with the Central Government at negative 13 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 18 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 27 percentage points and developing democracy at negative 35 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, the net satisfaction rates of two among the five indicators have increased, while three have decreased. Among them, only the increase of protection of human rights and freedom has gone beyond sampling error. Meanwhile, the net satisfaction of developing democracy has dropped to its record low since July 2003. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’. Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, I reprint the abstracts of two articles written by Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.”
“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”
“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”
Future Release (Tentative)
- October 4, 2016 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Media Performance
