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Press Release on August 16, 2016

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |

Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 102 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 103rd CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong people between 5 and 11 August, 2016 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE CY Leung has slightly increased by 0.7 mark to 40.8 compared to two weeks ago, but still below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 22%, disapproval rate 61%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points, up 5 percentage points from last survey, which is within sampling error. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 55.6 marks. Her approval rate is 50%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 34 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 63.0 marks, approval rate 64%, disapproval rate 5%, thus a net popularity of positive 59 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 46.1 marks, approval rate 29%, disapproval rate 30%, giving a net popularity of negative 1 percentage point. In terms of popularity rating and approval rate, John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 3 among the 13 Directors have gone up, 6 have gone down, while 4 remain unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So and Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man register significant changes in their net approval rates, up by 7 and down by 10 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Nicholas Yang, Lau Kong-wah, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 5, negative 22, negative 27 and negative 41 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 64 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang and Carrie Lam fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Anthony Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Gregory So, Rimsky Yuen, Paul Chan and Lau Kong-wah can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam, Wong Kam-sing, Clement Cheung and Nicholas Yang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Eddie Ng fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 72%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Tai, reprints the abstracts of two articles written by Director of POP, Robert Chung, before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 72.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	24-26/5/16	6-8/6/16	20-23/6/16	4-7/7/16	18-21/7/16	5-11/8/16	Latest change
Sample base	1,009	1,024	1,006	1,004	1,013	1,004	--
Overall response rate	69.9%	70.2%	69.5%	68.9%	73.6%	72.4%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error [8]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	36.2[9]	38.2	38.4[9]	40.1	40.1	40.8+/-1.9	+0.7
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	19%	22%	19%[9]	22%	19%[9]	22+/-3%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	64%	64%	61%	58%	63%[9]	61+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	-46%	-42%	-42%	-36%[9]	-44%[9]	-39+/-5%	+5%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	7-10/3/16	5-7/4/16	3-5/5/16	6-8/6/16	4-7/7/16	5-11/8/16	Latest change
Sample base[10]	642-708	650-735	526-557	527-582	604-661	576-611	--
Overall response rate	67.4%	68.3%	69.7%	70.2%	68.9%	72.4%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error [11]	--
Rating of CS Carrie Lam	54.2	55.4	56.6	53.2[12]	56.1[12]	55.6+/-2.2	-0.5
Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam	50%[12]	51%	49%	49%	50%	50+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam	21%	21%	16%[12]	21%[12]	17%[12]	16+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	29%[12]	30%	33%	28%	33%	34+/-6%	+1%
Rating of FS John Tsang	63.4	63.4	62.6	61.1	64.0[12]	63.0+/-1.6	-1.0
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang	69%[12]	70%	65%[12]	64%	64%	64+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang	8%	7%	9%	6%[12]	6%	5+/-2%	-1%
Net approval rate	60%[12]	64%	56%[12]	58%	58%	59+/-5%	+1%
Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen	46.5	48.3	49.0	44.8[12]	48.7[12]	46.1+/-2.3	-2.6[12]
Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen	34%[12]	34%	32%	25%[12]	30%[12]	29+/-4%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen	27%	28%	27%	28%	25%	30+/-4%	+5%[12]
Net approval rate	7%[12]	6%	5%	-3%[12]	5%[12]	-1+/-6%	-6%

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[16] Based on the figures in early June, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam and Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok are 3.3 and 3.1 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked fifth and sixth at that time.

[17] Based on the figures in early July, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing are 6.0 and 5.7 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked sixth and seventh at that time.

[18] Based on the figures in early July, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So are 4.0 and 3.7 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked eighth and ninth at that time.

[19] Based on the figures in early July, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Development Paul Chan and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah are -24.8 and -25.0 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked eleventh and twelfth at that time.

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 40.8 marks, and 22% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 39 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 55.6, 63.0 and 46.1 marks, and 50%, 64% and 29% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 34, positive 59 and negative 1 percentage points respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 64 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan with net approval rates of positive 27 and positive 25 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for Development Paul Chan and Secretary for Education Eddie Ng ranked 4th to 13th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 16, positive 13, positive 11, positive 6, positive 5, positive 4, negative 5, negative 22, negative 27 and negative 41 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored a net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 4 to 7 July, 2016 while this survey was conducted from 5 to 11 August, 2016. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

6/8/16	Returning Officer Cora Ho receives a threatening letter with a razor blade enclosed.
2/8/16	A total of seven candidates of the Legislative Council election have their nominations declared invalid.
30/7/16	The Returning Officer decides that the nomination of Chan Ho-tin of the Hong Kong National Party for the Legislative Council election is invalid.
27/7/16	High Court decides against immediate hearing on the new confirmation forms required by the Electoral Affairs Commission.
21/7/16	Joshua Wong Chi-fung and Alex Chow Yong-kang are found guilty of unlawful assembly while Nathan Law Kwun-chung is convicted of inciting others to take part in an unlawful assembly.
20/7/16	Zhang Xiaoming, Director of the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government, comments on the pro-independence candidates running in the Legislative Council elections.
14/7/16	All candidates of the next Legislative Council election will be required to sign the declaration that they will uphold the Basic Law.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Tai.

Our latest survey conducted in early August shows that the popularity rating of CE CY Leung has slightly increased by 0.7 mark to 40.8 compared to two weeks ago, but still below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 22%, disapproval rate 61%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points, up 5 percentage points from last survey, which is within sampling error.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 55.6 marks. Her approval rate is 50%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 34 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 63.0 marks, approval rate 64%, disapproval rate 5%, thus a net popularity of positive 59 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 46.1 marks, approval rate 29%, disapproval rate 30%, giving a net popularity of negative 1 percentage point. In terms of popularity rating and approval rate, John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 3 among the 13 Directors have gone up, 6 have gone down, while 4 remain unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So and Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man register significant changes in their net approval rates, up by 7 and down by 10 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Nicholas Yang, Lau Kong-wah, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 5, negative 22, negative 27 and negative 41 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 64 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang and Carrie Lam fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Anthony Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Gregory So, Rimsky Yuen, Paul Chan and Lau Kong-wah can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam, Wong Kam-sing, Clement Cheung and Nicholas Yang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Eddie Ng fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (72%)

“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

FS John Tsang Chun-wah (64%); CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (50%)

“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (45%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (38%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (34%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (32%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (29%); Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (22%); Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (18%)

“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (34%, 43%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (28%, 49%)[20]; Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (27%, 50%)[20] [21]; Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung Wan-ching (21%, 30%); Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (19%, 43%)

“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Leung Chun-ying (61%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (57%);

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

[20] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing are 27.5% and 27.3%.

[21] In one decimal place, the recognition rate of Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing is 49.9%.

Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, I reprint again the abstracts of two articles written by Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”

Future Release (Tentative)

August 23, 2016 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 cross-strait political figures

No. of hits since Jun 3, 2000: 81,053,944

No. of hits since Jan 1, 2018: 191,996

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Everything carried in this website does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles and messages posted at the opinion platforms. Any responsibility, legal and otherwise, arising from any such item shall vest entirely with its author. The intellectual property of all information contained in this website, including questionnaire design and research reports, originally belongs to HKU POP unless specified otherwise. HKU POP opens their copyright to the world via this website, but would request all users to acknowledge their source properly.

HKU POP all rights reserved.

Last update :  26/6/2019