HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack
Press Release on June 28, 2016
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government) |
Special Announcements
1. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 99 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 100th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
2. POP’s usual practice is to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also the end of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. Recently, POP issues a number of releases under the “HKSAR anniversary” survey series. Please see POP Site and also the “Future Releases” section of this press release for more information. Since the figures released today by POP come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted before July 2016, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for HKSAR anniversary stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running HKSAR anniversary reviews.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong people between 20 and 23 June 2016 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that CE CY Leung’s rating has slightly increased by 0.2 mark from early June to 38.4, but is still below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 61%, giving a net popularity of negative 42 percentage points again. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has increased compared to a month ago, but all changes registered are within sampling errors. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 26%, dissatisfaction rate 48%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 22 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, all five items have registered negative values again since September last year. They are maintaining economic prosperity at negative 6 percentage points, handling of its relation with the Central Government at negative 15 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 25 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 31 percentage points and developing democracy at negative 33 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, the net satisfaction rates of two among the five indicators have increased, while three have decreased. Among them, that of maintaining economic prosperity has increased whilst that of protection of human rights and freedom and handling of its relation with the Central Government have decreased beyond sampling error. And that of SAR Government’s relation with the Central Government has even dropped to its record low since this survey series began in July 1997. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 69%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee, reprints the abstracts of two articles written by Director of POP, Robert Chung, before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 69.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
20-23/6/2016 |
1,006 |
69.5% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people’s satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
5-7/4/16 |
18-21/4/16 |
3-5/5/16 |
24-26/5/16 |
6-8/6/16 |
20-23/6/16 |
Latest Change |
|
Sample base |
1,000 |
1,011 |
1,000 |
1,009 |
1,024 |
1,006 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
68.3% |
68.6% |
69.7% |
69.9% |
70.2% |
69.5% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error[7] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE CY Leung |
41.6 |
39.6[9] |
40.0 |
36.2[9] |
38.2 [9] |
38.4+/-1.8 |
+0.2 |
|
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung |
25% |
22% |
21% |
19% |
22% |
19+/-2% |
-3%[9] |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung |
57%[9] |
63%[9] |
62% |
64% |
64% |
61+/-3% |
-3% |
|
Net approval rate |
-32%[9] |
-41%[9] |
-41% |
-46% |
-42% |
-42+/-5% |
-- |
|
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[8] |
-- |
23% |
-- |
26% |
-- |
26+/-3% |
-- |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[8] |
-- |
54% |
-- |
50% |
-- |
48+/-4% |
-2% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-- |
-31% |
-- |
-24% |
-- |
-22+/-7% |
+2% |
|
Mean value[8] |
-- |
2.5
|
-- |
2.5
|
-- |
2.5+/-0.1 (Base=624) |
-- |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 633.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 38.4 marks, and 19% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 42 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 26% were satisfied, whereas 48% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 22 percentage points. The mean score is 2.5, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.
Recent figures on people’s appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows, in descending order of net satisfaction rates:
|
Date of survey |
22-25/6/15 |
16-22/9/15 |
16-21/12/15 |
17-22/3/16 |
20-23/6/16 |
Latest Change[10] |
|
Sample base[10] |
628-752 |
544-648 |
605-711 |
549-610 |
550-613 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
67.4% |
64.0% |
66.6% |
68.1% |
69.5% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[11] |
-- |
|
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate[12] |
36% |
29%[13] |
30% |
32% |
32+/-4% |
-- |
|
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate[12] |
33%[13] |
45%[13] |
41% |
47%[13] |
38+/-4% |
-9%[13] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
3%[13] |
-16%[13] |
-11% |
-15% |
-6+/-7% |
+9%[13] |
|
Mean value[12] |
3.0[13]
|
2.7[13]
|
2.7 (Base=654) |
2.7 (Base=555) |
2.8+/-0.1 (Base=570) |
+0.1 |
|
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate[12] |
37% |
33% |
37% |
39% |
31+/-4% |
-8%[13] |
|
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate[12] |
36% |
42%[13] |
34%[13] |
38% |
46+/-4% |
+8%[13] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
1% |
-9%[13] |
3%[13] |
1% |
-15+/-7% |
-16%[13] |
|
Mean value[12] |
2.9
|
2.7[13]
|
2.9[13] (Base=554) |
2.9 (Base=540) |
2.6+/-0.1 (Base=569) |
-0.3[13] |
|
Improving people’s livelihood: Satisfaction rate[12] |
34%[13] |
22%[13] |
27%[13] |
25% |
25+/-4% |
-- |
|
Improving people’s livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate[12] |
43%[13] |
51%[13] |
47% |
56%[13] |
49+/-4% |
-7%[13] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-9%[13] |
-29%[13] |
-19%[13] |
-31%[13] |
-25+/-7% |
+6% |
|
Mean value[12] |
2.8[13]
|
2.5[13]
|
2.6 (Base=616) |
2.4 [13] (Base=602) |
2.5+/-0.1 (Base=538) |
+0.1 |
|
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate[12] |
33% |
30% |
32% |
31% |
23+/-4% |
-8%[13] |
|
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate[12] |
41%[13] |
47%[13] |
47% |
48% |
53+/-4% |
+5%[13] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-8%[13] |
-17%[13] |
-15% |
-16% |
-31+/-7% |
-15%[13] |
|
Mean value[12] |
2.8[13]
|
2.6[13]
|
2.6 (Base=678) |
2.6 (Base=528) |
2.4+/-0.1 (Base=534) |
-0.2[13] |
|
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate[12] |
26% |
20%[13] |
25%[13] |
25% |
20+/-3% |
-5%[13] |
|
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate[12] |
47%[13] |
53%[13] |
51% |
53% |
53+/-4% |
-- |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-22% |
-32%[13] |
-26% |
-28% |
-33+/-6% |
-5% |
|
Mean value[12] |
2.5
|
2.4
|
2.5 (Base=653) |
2.4 (Base=561) |
2.3+/-0.1 (Base=550) |
-0.1 |
[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the Government’s performance in maintaining economic prosperity, with a net satisfaction rate of negative 6 percentage points. The Government’s handling of its relation with the Central Government and performance in improving people’s livelihood followed, attaining a net satisfaction rate of negative 15 and negative 25 percentage points respectively. That in protecting human rights and freedom attained a net satisfaction rate of negative 31 percentage points. Finally, the net satisfaction rate of the Government’s performance in developing democracy stands at negative 33 percentage points. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 2.8, 2.6, 2.5, 2.4 and 2.3 respectively, which are in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 17 to 22 March, 2016 while this survey was conducted from 20 to 23 June, 2016. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
23/6/16 |
Second fireman dies in a fourth alarm fire at mini-storage site on Ngau Tau Kok Road. |
|
21/6/16 |
A fire officer dies in a fourth alarm fire at mini-storage site on Ngau Tau Kok Road. |
|
17/6/16 |
Media reports on Causeway Bay bookstore’s bookseller Lam Wing-kee revealed details of his disappearance in a press conference. |
|
31/5/16 |
A report on lead-in-water scandal is released by an independent investigation panel. |
|
18/5/16 |
Zhang Dejiang delivers a speech during the welcome banquet. |
|
17/5/16 |
Zhang Dejiang visits the government headquarters, and listens to the work report by the HKSAR Government. |
|
13/5/16 |
Hong Kong’s first-quarter GDP grows only 0.8%. |
|
25/4/16 |
Airport Authority submits a report on Leung Chung-yan’s baggage incident to the government. |
|
23/4/16 |
Secretary for Justice Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung says the Department of Justice has been liaising with law enforcement agencies to investigate whether advocates of Hong Kong independence break any laws. |
|
9/4/16 |
Betty Fung Ching Suk-yee, Permanent Secretary for Home Affairs, is accused of conflict of interest in a flat-swap deal. |
Commentary
Frank Wai-Kin Lee, Research Manager of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey shows that CE CY Leung’s rating has slightly increased by 0.2 mark from early June to 38.4, but is still below the warning line of 45. His latest approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 61%, giving a net popularity of negative 42 percentage points again. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has increased compared to a month ago, but all changes registered are within sampling errors. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 26%, dissatisfaction rate 48%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 22 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, all five items have registered negative values again since September last year. They are maintaining economic prosperity at negative 6 percentage points, handling of its relation with the Central Government at negative 15 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 25 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 31 percentage points and developing democracy at negative 33 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, the net satisfaction rates of two among the five indicators have increased, while three have decreased. Among them, that of maintaining economic prosperity has increased whilst that of protection of human rights and freedom and handling of its relation with the Central Government have decreased beyond sampling error. And that of SAR Government’s relation with the Central Government has even dropped to its record low since this survey series began in July 1997. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’. Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, I reprint the abstracts of two articles written by Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.”
“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”
“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”
Future Releases (Tentative)
- June 30, 2016 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: HKSAR anniversary survey
- July 5, 2016 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s appraisal of society’s conditions
