HKU POP releases findings on people's feeling towards different governments and peoplesBack

Press Release on May 24, 2016

| Detailed Findings (Feeling towards different governments) |
| Detailed Findings (Feeling towards different peoples) |

Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) at The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 97 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on Hong Kong citizens’ feeling towards different governments and peoples in May, by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards fellow Hongkongers is 54 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 31 percentage points higher than that towards the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 27 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 15 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. It should be noted that the net values of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards the Hong Kong government, the Mainland Chinese government and the Macau government have all dropped to their record lows since 1997, but that towards the Taiwan government has increased to its record high since 1997. As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of Japan, Russia, Thailand, the United States and Malaysia whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. These findings are worth studying by various governments. Compared to 6 months ago, Hong Kong people’s net affinity values for the government and the people of Germany, and the peoples of the United Kingdom and Thailand are all at their new highs since 2007. As for reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level while the sampling error of net values need another calculation. The response rate of the second stage opinion survey is 68%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,000 successful interviews, not 1,000 x 69.7% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,001 successful interviews, not 1,001 x 67.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of various percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the survey findings on Hong Kong people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples. These surveys on governments are conducted at least once a year since 1997, while the surveys on peoples only began in 2007, this being the eighteenth time. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Sampling error of percentages^[6]

3-5/5/2016

(First stage naming survey)

1,000

69.7%

+/-3%

16-19/5/2016

(Second stage opinion survey)

1,001

67.6%

+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. For this survey, the sub-sample size of all questions has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have been reported in the statistical tables.

The research design of our survey on “people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. For many years, POP have selected 15 regions and countries that are best known to Hong Kong people, and conducted surveys to measure people’s feeling towards the governments of these places. Our primary objective was to map Hong Kong people’s cosmopolitan view over time. In 2007, we improved our research design. Our mid-2007 survey was divided into two stages, namely, a naming survey and an opinion survey. In the 2007 year-end survey, we further added the people module to the survey. In specific terms, in our naming survey, other than Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan and Macau, respondents can name, unaided, up to ten regions or countries which they know best. The four cross-strait regions together with 12 other regions and countries most frequently mentioned in the naming stage were then shortlisted into the second stage, with their governments and peoples rated by respondents as “very positive”, “quite positive”, “half-half”, “quite negative” or “very negative”. In our first stage survey conducted on May 3 to 5, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea and France were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Our second stage survey was conducted on May 16 to 19. The following table summarizes the findings of Hong Kong people’s feeling towards the governments and peoples of the four cross-strait regions.

Date of survey		24-27/11/14	29/5-2/6/15	16-19/11/15	*16-19/5/16*
Sample base		1,009	1,038	1,004	*1,001*
Overall response rate		67.1%	66.5%	64.8%	*67.6%*
Feeling towards different governments / peoples^[7]		Finding	Finding	Finding	*Base^[8]*	*Finding and error^[9]*	*Latest change^[10]*	*Net difference with gov’ts / peoples*
Hong Kong	People Positive	49%	41%^[11]	40%	*606*	*49+/-4%*	*+9%^[11]*	*+54%*
	People Negative	11%	10%	11%	*606*	*14+/-3%*	*+3%*
	Net value	38%	30%^[11]	29%	*606*	*35+/-6%*	*+6%*
	Government Positive	32%^[11]	27%^[11]	26%	*606*	*24+/-3%*	*-2%*	*-54%*
	Government Negative	37%	36%	34%	*606*	*43+/-4%*	*+9%^[11]*
	Net value	-5%	-8%	-8%	*606*	*-19+/-7%*	*-11%^[11]*
Mainland	People Positive	31%	28%	26%	*639*	*27+/-3%*	*+1%*	*+15%*
	People Negative	25%	21%^[11]	24%	*639*	*29+/-4%*	*+5%^[11]*
	Net value	6%	7%	2%	*639*	*-3+/-6%*	*-5%*
	Government Positive	29%	30%	26%	*639*	*24+/-3%*	*-2%*	*-15%*
	Government Negative	34%	31%	31%	*639*	*42+/-4%*	*+11%^[11]*
	Net value	-5%	-1%	-5%	*639*	*-17+/-6%*	*-12%^[11]*
Taiwan	People Positive	59%	62%	59%	*613*	*67+/-4%*	*+8%^[11]*	*+31%*
	People Negative	4%	3%	4%	*613*	*3+/-1%*	*-1%*
	Net value	55%	59%	55%	*613*	*64+/-4%*	*+9%^[11]*
	Government Positive	29%	33%	31%	*613*	*43+/-4%*	*+12%^[11]*	*-31%*
	Government Negative	16%	10%^[11]	10%	*613*	*10+/-2%*	--
	Net value	13%	23%^[11]	21%	*613*	*33+/-5%*	*+12%^[11]*
Macau	People Positive	51%	47%	45%	*637*	*49+/-4%*	*+4%*	*+27%*
	People Negative	2%	3%	2%	*637*	*4+/-2%*	*+2%*
	Net value	49%	44%^[11]	44%	*637*	*45+/-5%*	*+1%*
	Government Positive	45%^[11]	41%	39%	*637*	*36+/-4%*	*-3%*	*-27%*
	Government Negative	13%^[11]	13%	16%	*637*	*17+/-3%*	*+1%*
	Net value	32%^[11]	28%	23%	*637*	*18+/-6%*	*-5%*

[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

[8] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[10] Comparison made with survey findings of 16-19/11/15.

[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Herewith the findings of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards the governments and peoples of 12 regions and countries other than the four cross-strait regions. They are ranked according to the net values of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards their people, in descending order:

Date of survey		24-27/11/14	29/5-2/6/15	16-19/11/15	*16-19/5/16*
Sample base		1,009	1,038	1,004	*1,001*
Overall response rate		67.1%	66.5%	64.8%	*67.6%*
Feeling towards different governments / peoples ^[12]		Finding	Finding	Finding	*Base^[13]*	*Finding and error^[14]*	*Latest change^[15]*	*Net difference with gov’ts / peoples*
Singapore	People Positive	60%^[16]	61%	62%	*605*	*60+/-4%*	*-2%*	*+18%*
	People Negative	2%	2%	2%	*605*	*2+/-1%*	--
	Net value	58%^[16]	59%	60%	*605*	*58+/-4%*	*-2%*
	Government Positive	56%^[16]	55%	56%	*605*	*52+/-4%*	*-4%*	*-18%*
	Government Negative	5%	7%	7%	*605*	*11+/-3%*	*+4%^[16]*
	Net value	50%	49%	48%	*605*	*40+/-6%*	*-8%^[16]*
Canada	People Positive	49%^[16]	51%	55%	*615*	*55+/-4%*	--	*+3%*
	People Negative	2%	1%	1%	*615*	*2+/-1%*	*+1%*
	Net value	47%^[16]	50%	54%	*615*	*54+/-4%*	--
	Government Positive	45%^[16]	48%	48%	*615*	*52+/-4%*	*+4%*	*-3%*
	Government Negative	3%	1%	2%	*615*	*2+/-1%*	--
	Net value	42%^[16]	47%^[16]	46%	*615*	*51+/-4%*	*+5%^[16]*
Japan	People Positive	53%	54%	53%	*585*	*62+/-4%*	*+9%^[16]*	*+73%*
	People Negative	10%^[16]	8%	9%	*585*	*8+/-2%*	*-1%*
	Net value	44%^[16]	47%	44%	*585*	*53+/-5%*	*+9%^[16]*
	Government Positive	15%	17%	18%	*585*	*23+/-3%*	*+5%^[16]*	*-73%*
	Government Negative	56%	48%^[16]	47%	*585*	*42+/-4%*	*-5%^[16]*
	Net value	-41%	-31%^[16]	-29%	*585*	*-19+/-6%*	*+10%^[16]*
Australia	People Positive	49%	44%^[16]	50%^[16]	*668*	*53+/-4%*	*+3%*	*+8%*
	People Negative	2%	3%	2%	*668*	*2+/-1%*	--
	Net value	46%	41%^[16]	48%^[16]	*668*	*52+/-4%*	*+4%*
	Government Positive	44%	39%^[16]	44%^[16]	*668*	*47+/-4%*	*+3%*	*-8%*
	Government Negative	2%	5%	3%^[16]	*668*	*4+/-1%*	*+1%*
	Net value	42%	35%^[16]	41%^[16]	*668*	*43+/-4%*	*+2%*
United Kingdom	People Positive	44%^[16]	42%	50%^[16]	*598*	*54+/-4%*	*+4%*	*+21%*
	People Negative	6%	4%	3%	*598*	*3+/-1%*	--
	Net value	38%^[16]	38%	47%^[16]	*598*	*51+/-5%*	*+4%*
	Government Positive	37%^[16]	36%	41%^[16]	*598*	*44+/-4%*	*+3%*	*-21%*
	Government Negative	19%^[16]	11%^[16]	9%	*598*	*14+/-3%*	*+5%^[16]*
	Net value	18%^[16]	25%^[16]	32%^[16]	*598*	*30+/-6%*	*-2%*
Germany	People Positive	45%^[16]	37%^[16]	45%^[16]	*619*	*48+/-4%*	*+3%*	*+3%*
	People Negative	1%	2%	1%	*619*	*2+/-1%*	*+1%*
	Net value	44%^[16]	35%^[16]	43%^[16]	*619*	*47+/-4%*	*+4%*
	Government Positive	39%^[16]	34%^[16]	43%^[16]	*619*	*47+/-4%*	*+4%*	*-3%*
	Government Negative	3%	2%	2%	*619*	*3+/-1%*	*+1%*
	Net value	36%^[16]	32%	41%^[16]	*619*	*44+/-4%*	*+3%*
South Korea	People Positive	52%	42%^[16]	45%	*643*	*47+/-4%*	*+2%*	*+10%*
	People Negative	6%	8%	7%	*643*	*7+/-2%*	--
	Net value	46%	34%^[16]	38%	*643*	*41+/-5%*	*+3%*
	Government Positive	46%^[16]	32%^[16]	41%^[16]	*643*	*38+/-4%*	*-3%*	*-10%*
	Government Negative	7%^[16]	10%	10%	*643*	*8+/-2%*	*-2%*
	Net value	39%^[16]	22%^[16]	30%^[16]	*643*	*31+/-5%*	*+1%*
Thailand	People Positive	38%^[16]	38%	41%	*663*	*43+/-4%*	*+2%*	*+48%*
	People Negative	11%^[16]	10%	10%	*663*	*7+/-2%*	*-3%*
	Net value	26%^[16]	28%	31%	*663*	*37+/-5%*	*+6%^[16]*
	Government Positive	16%^[16]	13%	16%	*663*	*20+/-3%*	*+4%^[16]*	*-48%*
	Government Negative	38%^[16]	35%	30%^[16]	*663*	*31+/-4%*	*+1%*
	Net value	-22%^[16]	-21%	-14%^[16]	*663*	*-11+/-5%*	*+3%*
USA	People Positive	40%	37%	41%	*635*	*42+/-4%*	*+1%*	*+42%*
	People Negative	9%	8%	6%	*635*	*8+/-2%*	*+2%*
	Net value	31%	29%	34%	*635*	*34+/-5%*	--
	Government Positive	21%	19%	24%^[16]	*635*	*24+/-3%*	--	*-42%*
	Government Negative	34%^[16]	36%	33%	*635*	*32+/-4%*	*-1%*
	Net value	-13%^[16]	-16%	-8%^[16]	*635*	*-8+/-6%*	--
Malaysia	People Positive	--	--	35%	*611*	*37+/-4%*	*+2%*	*+33%*
	People Negative	--	--	6%	*611*	*8+/-2%*	*+2%*
	Net value	--	--	29%	*611*	*29+/-5%^[17]*	--
	Government Positive	--	--	21%	*611*	*21+/-3%*	--	*-33%*
	Government Negative	--	--	22%	*611*	*25+/-4%*	*+3%*
	Net value	--	--	-1%	*611*	*-4+/-5%*	*-3%*
France	People Positive	28%^[16]	29%	38%^[16]	*646*	*34+/-4%*	*-4%*	*+11%*
	People Negative	6%	4%	3%	*646*	*6+/-2%*	*+3%^[16]*
	Net value	23%^[16]	25%	35%^[16]	*646*	*29+/-4%^[17]*	*-6%^[16]*
	Government Positive	19%^[16]	18%	29%^[16]	*646*	*24+/-3%*	*-5%^[16]*	*-11%*
	Government Negative	6%	6%	6%	*646*	*6+/-2%*	--
	Net value	13%	12%	23%^[16]	*646*	*18+/-4%*	*-5%^[16]*
Russia	People Positive	26%	22%^[16]	28%^[16]	*616*	*27+/-4%*	*-1%*	*+33%*
	People Negative	6%^[16]	5%	5%	*616*	*8+/-2%*	*+3%^[16]*
	Net value	20%	17%	23%^[16]	*616*	*20+/-5%*	*-3%*
	Government Positive	19%	16%	17%	*616*	*18+/-3%*	*+1%*	*-33%*
	Government Negative	31%	25%^[16]	26%	*616*	*32+/-4%*	*+6%^[16]*
	Net value	-12%	-10%	-9%	*616*	*-13+/-6%*	*-4%*

[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

[13] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[15] Comparison made with survey findings of 16-19/11/15.

[16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[17] In two decimal places, the respective net values of people’s feeling towards the people of Malaysia and France are positive 28.64 and positive 28.60 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked tenth and eleventh respectively.

Our latest findings showed that, as regards the results of people’s feeling towards different peoples, 49% felt positive towards Hong Kong people themselves while the net value is positive 35 percentage points. For the other cross-strait regions, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau peoples were 27%, 67% and 49% while their net values are negative 3, positive 64 and positive 45 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on peoples of other regions and countries, the net values for Singapore, Canada, Japan and Australia were highest, with positive 58, positive 54, positive 53 and positive 52 percentage points respectively, while those for the United Kingdom, Germany, South Korea, Thailand and the United States were positive 51, positive 47, positive 41, positive 37 and positive 34 percentage points correspondingly. Lastly, the net value of feeling towards the people of Malaysia, France and Russia are positive 29, positive 29 and positive 20 percentage points only.

Regarding the results of people’s feeling towards different governments, 24% felt positive towards the HKSAR government while the net value is negative 19 percentage points. For the other cross-strait governments, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau governments were 24%, 43% and 36% while their net values are negative 17, positive 33 and positive 18 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on other governments, the net values for Canada, Germany, Australia and Singapore were the highest, with positive 51, positive 44, positive 43 and positive 40 percentage points correspondingly, while those for South Korea, the United Kingdom and France were positive 31, positive 30 and positive 18 percentage points correspondingly, those for Malaysia, the United States, Thailand, Russia and Japan were negative 4, negative 8, negative 11, negative 13 and negative 19 percentage points correspondingly.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from November 16 to 19, 2015 while this survey was conducted from May 16 to 19, 2016. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

15/5/16	Police enhances the security measures for Zhang Dejiang visit.
16/4/16	A series of powerful earthquakes strike Japan’s Kumamoto, the Hong Kong government issues the amber outbound travel alert for the area.
22/3/16	A series of terror attacks hit Brussels, the Belgian capital.
9/2/16	A conflict between protesters and police in Mong Kok was triggered by the eviction of food hawkers on the first day of the Lunar New Year.
6/2/16	An earthquake of 6.4 magnitude strikes Tainan.
29/1/16	Japanese central bank adopts negative interest rates.
16/1/16	Democratic Progressive Party leader Tsai Ing-wen wins Taiwan’s presidential election.
5/1/16	Media reports on the missing of Causeway Bay bookstore’s shareholder.
17/12/15	The US Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate to 0.25 per cent.
27/11/15	Mainland and Hong Kong reach CEPA service trade agreement.
19/11/15	The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria kills a Chinese hostage.
17/11/15	Hong Kong draws tie with China in the World Cup Asian qualifying match.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of Public Opinion Programme, Edward Chit-Fai Tai.

Our latest survey shows that, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards fellow Hongkongers is 54 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 31 percentage points higher than that towards the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 27 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 15 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. It should be noted that the net values of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards the Hong Kong government, the Mainland Chinese government and the Macau government have all dropped to their record lows since 1997, but that towards the Taiwan government has increased to its record high since 1997. As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of Japan, Russia, Thailand, the United States and Malaysia whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. These findings are worth studying by various governments. Compared to 6 months ago, Hong Kong people’s net affinity values for the government and the people of Germany, and the peoples of the United Kingdom and Thailand are all at their new highs since 2007. As for reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design.

Future Release (Tentative)