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Press Release on May 3, 2016

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Top Ten Political Groups) |

Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 96 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on the rankings of the top 10 political groups in April 2016 by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey of “Top 10 Political Groups” before LegCo election this year shows that the popularity of most political groups have not changed much since last time and all stay below 50 marks. In terms of support ratings, compared to six months ago, out of the 8 political groups which were also rated last time, only the support rating of DP has gone down significantly. Compared to the last survey, 7 out of 10 political groups in the last survey have managed to maintain their places in the ‘top 10’, while Labour Party, Scholarism and HKI enter the list to replace ADPL, HKCTU and NPP. In terms of relative rankings, LP goes up three positions to top the list, the very first time since this survey series started. CP remains at the second place, FTU goes up two positions to rank 3rd, DAB goes up three positions to rank 4th, DP goes down two positions to rank 5th, Labour Party re-enters the list to rank 6th, LSD and PP go up two positions respectively to rank 7th and 8th, Scholarism re-enters the list to rank 9th and HKI enters the list for the first time to rank 10th. It should be noted, however, that our “Top 10 Political Groups” only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings of top ten political groups registered fall between +/-1.6 and +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 69%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey of top 10 political groups is 1,000 successful interviews, not 1,000 x 68.3% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is other 1,011 successful interviews, not 1,011 x 68.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our “Top ten political groups” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from April 5 to 7. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP), Civic Party (CP), Liberal Party (LP) and League of Social Democrats (LSD) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted from April 18 to 21, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[10] In three decimal places, the ratings of LSD and PP are 34.358 and 34.355 respectively. Therefore, LSD and PP ranked at 9th and 10th places respectively.

[11] In two decimal places, the ratings of FTU and HKCTU are 43.02 and 42.96 respectively. Therefore, FTU and HKCTU ranked at 5th and 6th places respectively.

Findings obtained from second half of April showed that, the most popular political group was Liberal Party (LP) which attained 44.7 marks. Civic Party (CP), Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP) and Labour Party scored 44.4, 42.7, 41.5, 41.1 and 40.3 marks respectively and ranked 2nd to 6th. The 7th and 10th places went to League of Social Democrats (LSD), People Power (PP), Scholarism and Hong Kong Indigenous (HKI), attaining 34.8, 33.5, 32.1 and 29.4 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 42.9 marks. For this latest survey, Neighbourhood and Worker’s Service Centre (NWS) and New People’s Party (NPP) obtained a support rating of 45.1 and 43.0 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 4 surveys are tabulated as follows:

[12] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 4 surveys.

[13] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

The overall rankings in the past 4 surveys showed that, seven political groups were listed for four times, FTU achieved an average rating of 44.1 and rank first. Meanwhile, the 2nd to 7th ranks fell to LP, CP, DAB, DP, LSD and PP, with respective average ratings of 44.0, 43.2, 43.1, 41.8, 35.1 and 33.6 marks. HKCTU was listed three times and ranked the 8th with an average rating of 42.9 marks. ADPL, Labour Party and Scholarism were listed twice with average ratings of 46.7, 42.3 and 36.6 marks respectively, now ranked the 9th to 11th. Furthermore, HKFS, NPP and HKI were listed once with ratings of 47.7, 38.5 and 29.4 marks respectively, now ranking the 12th to 14th.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from October 19 to 23, 2015 while this survey was conducted from April 18 to 21, 2016. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Commentary

Edward Chit-Fai Tai, Senior Data Analyst of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey of ‘Top 10 Political Groups’ before LegCo election this year shows that the popularity of most political groups have not changed much since last time and all stay below 50 marks. In terms of support ratings, compared to six months ago, out of the 8 political groups which were also rated last time, only the support rating of DP has gone down significantly. Compared to the last survey, 7 out of 10 political groups in the last survey have managed to maintain their places in the ‘top 10’, while Labour Party, Scholarism and HKI enter the list to replace ADPL, HKCTU and NPP. In terms of relative rankings, LP goes up three positions to top the list, the very first time since this survey series started. CP remains at the second place, FTU goes up two positions to rank 3rd, DAB goes up three positions to rank 4th, DP goes down two positions to rank 5th, Labour Party re-enters the list to rank 6th, LSD and PP go up two positions respectively to rank 7th and 8th, Scholarism re-enters the list to rank 9th and HKI enters the list for the first time to rank 10th. It should be noted, however, that our ‘Top 10 Political Groups’ only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. As to what events have affected the ups and downs of the popularity of these groups, readers can make their own judgment after reading through detailed records placed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

• May 10, 2016 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials

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Everything carried in this website does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles and messages posted at the opinion platforms. Any responsibility, legal and otherwise, arising from any such item shall vest entirely with its author. The intellectual property of all information contained in this website, including questionnaire design and research reports, originally belongs to HKU POP unless specified otherwise. HKU POP opens their copyright to the world via this website, but would request all users to acknowledge their source properly.

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Last update :  26/6/2019