HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of Executive CouncillorsBack
Press Release on March 10, 2016
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Executive Councillors) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) at The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 92 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP conducted a double stage survey on the ratings of Executive Councillors from late February to early March, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that although Regina Ip stays at the top in the naming survey, Lam Woon-kwong continues to surpass her in the rating stage. Compared to half a year ago, among all five Councillors who remain on the “top 5” list across two surveys, only the rating of Lam Woon-kwong has dropped while those of the others have all increased, but only that of Fanny Law has increased beyond sampling error. In terms of absolute ratings, only Lam Woon-kwong on the “top 5” list scores more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, all five Councillors remain at the same ranking as the previous survey. Ranked from the 1st to 5th are Lam Woon-kwong, Regina Ip, Starry Lee, Fanny Law and Arthur Li. It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 5” only includes non-official Councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other Councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known Councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figures is below +/-2.8 marks. The response rate of the rating survey is 68%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey on top 5 Executive Councillors is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 67.7% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 67.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.8 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of Executive Councillors. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:
|
Date of survey |
Overall
|
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error
|
|
19-26/2/2016 (First stage naming survey) |
1,006 |
67.7% |
+/-4% |
|
29/2-3/3/2016 (Second stage rating survey) |
1,004 |
67.7% |
+/-2.8 |
[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
The research design of our “Top 5 Executive Councillors” is similar to that of our “Top 10” series, it is explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our web page. From 2015 onwards, this survey series is changed from three times per year to twice per year. The top Councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in late February. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Latest findings of the naming survey are as follows:
|
Date of survey |
5-8/5/14 |
21-27/8/14 |
2-5/3/15 |
21-27/8/15 |
19-26/2/16 |
Latest Change in Ranking |
|
Sample base |
1,005 |
1,007 |
1,000 |
1,005 |
1,006[7] |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
64.3% |
65.1% |
67.2% |
65.1% |
67.7% |
-- |
|
Finding / Error |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [7] |
-- |
|
Regina Ip |
14%{1} |
14%{1} |
25%{1} |
20%{1} |
18+/-3%{1} |
-- |
|
Starry Lee |
6%{2} |
6%{3} |
9%{3} |
14%{2} |
8+/-2%{2} |
-- |
|
Lam Woon-kwong |
4%{3} |
6%{4} |
12%{2} |
5%{4} |
7+/-2%{3} |
↑1 |
|
Arthur Li |
1%{9} |
1%{11} |
2%{7} |
6%{3} |
6+/-2%{4} |
↓1 |
|
Fanny Law |
3%{5} |
8%{2} |
8%{4} |
5%{5} |
4+/-2%{5} |
-- |
|
Cheung Chi-kong |
2%{7} |
2%{8} |
3%{5} |
2%{8} |
3+/-1%{6} |
↑2 |
|
Cheng Yiu-tong |
3%{4} |
4%{6} |
2%{8} |
3%{7} |
2+/-1%{7}[9] |
-- |
|
Bernard Chan |
3%{6} |
5%{5} |
2%{9} |
3%{6} |
2+/-1%{8}[9] |
↓2 |
|
Anna Wu |
<1%{13} |
1%{10} |
2%{6} |
1%{11} |
1+/-1%{9}[10] |
↑2 |
|
Jeffrey Lam |
1%{10} |
1%{9} |
<1%{14} |
2%{9} |
1+/-1%{10}[10] |
↓1 |
|
Laura Cha |
1%{11} |
2%{7} |
<1%{12} |
1%{10} |
1+/-1%{11}[10] |
↓1 |
|
Andrew Liao |
<1%{12} |
<1%{14} |
1%{11} |
<1%{12} |
1+/-1%{12}[10] |
-- |
|
Cheung Hok-ming |
<1%{14} |
<1%{13} |
<1%{15} |
0%{15} |
1+/-1%{13}[10] |
↑2 |
|
Chow Chung-kong |
1%{8} |
<1%{12} |
<1%{13} |
<1%{13} |
<1+/-1%{14} |
↓1 |
|
Nicholas Yang |
--[8] |
--[8] |
1%{10} |
0%{15} |
--[8] |
-- |
|
Wrong answer |
14% |
14% |
14% |
15% |
14+/-3% |
-- |
|
Don’t know/hard to say |
71% |
66% |
60% |
61% |
65+/-4% |
-- |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level”, meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings in our naming survey. Councillors with the same recognition rate will be ranked according to the decimal place of the corresponding percentages. Please refer to the POP Site for detailed figures of the previous surveys. The error margin of previous surveys can also be found at the POP Site. The sub-sample size for this survey is 600.
[8] Not a non-official Executive Councillor during the survey period.
[9] The percentages of respondents who could name Cheng Yiu-tong and Bernard Chan were 2.3% and 2.1%, so Cheng Yiu-tong ranked the 7th, while Bernard Chan was placed at the 8th rank.
[10] The percentages of respondents who could name Anna Wu, Jeffrey Lam, Laura Cha, Andrew Liao and Cheung Hok-ming were 1.1%, 1.0%, 0.72%, 0.69% and 0.68%. Hence Anna Wu ranked the 9th, Jeffrey Lam ranked the 10th, Laura Cha ranked the 11th, Andrew Liao ranked the 12th while Cheung Hok-ming was placed at the 13th rank.
The naming survey conducted in the second half of February showed that Regina Ip was named most frequently with a recognition rate of 18%. Starry Lee, Lam Woon-kwong, Arthur Li, Fanny Law and Cheung Chi-kong had recognition rates of 8%, 7%, 6%, 4% and 3%, and were ranked the 2nd to 6th. However, 14% made a wrong attempt at citing Executive Councillors (non-official) while 65% had no clue.
The 6 Councillors who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in late February to early March, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed Councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 Councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
12-16/5/14 |
28/8-3/9/14 |
9-12/3/15 |
28/8-3/9/15 |
29/2-3/3/16 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample base |
560-597 |
656-691 |
546-667 |
618-707 |
567-640 |
-- |
|
|
Overall response rate |
68.3% |
65.1% |
68.6% |
66.9% |
67.7% |
-- |
|
|
Finding / Recognition rate |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error [11] |
Recognition
|
-- |
|
Lam Woon-kwong |
50.8{2} |
52.8{1}[13] |
54.9{1}[13] |
54.3{1} |
53.1+/-2.1{1} |
78.0% |
-1.2 |
|
Regina Ip |
53.3{1} |
49.1{2}[13] |
46.3{3}[13] |
48.1{2} |
49.0+/-2.3{2} |
97.2% |
+0.9 |
|
Starry Lee |
43.9{4} |
40.6{5}[13] |
42.6{4} |
42.3{3} |
44.2+/-2.7{3} |
83.5% |
+1.9 |
|
Fanny Law |
47.7{3} |
42.1{3}[13] |
41.8{5} |
39.6{4} |
43.5+/-2.4{4} |
89.7% |
+3.9[13] |
|
Arthur Li |
-- |
-- |
-- |
38.8{5} |
40.3+/-2.7{5} |
88.1% |
+1.5 |
|
Cheung Chi-kong |
-- |
-- |
42.8[12] |
-- |
43.0+/-2.8[12] |
60.6% |
-- |
|
Bernard Chan |
53.9[12] |
53.1[12] |
-- |
54.9[12] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Anna Wu |
-- |
-- |
47.4{2} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Cheng Yiu-tong |
42.3{5} |
40.7{4} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level”, meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.8 marks at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Recognition rate fell outside top 5 during rating stage, so per poll rating and related changes are presented only for rough reference and not counted in yearly average.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
The latest rating survey conducted in late February to early March showed that Lam Woon-kwong was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 53.1 marks. The 2nd went to Regina Ip with 49.0 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Starry Lee, Fanny Law and Arthur Li with 44.2, 43.5 and 40.3 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 46.0 marks. For this latest survey, Cheung Chi-kong obtained a support rating of 43.0 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past four surveys are tabulated as follows:
|
Date of survey |
28/8-3/9/14 |
9-12/3/15 |
28/8-3/9/15 |
29/2-3/3/16 |
No. of times on top 5 |
Average rating [14] |
Overall ranking [15] |
|
Lam Woon-kwong |
52.8 |
54.9 |
54.3 |
53.1 |
4 |
53.8 |
1 |
|
Regina Ip |
49.1 |
46.3 |
48.1 |
49.0 |
4 |
48.1 |
2 |
|
Starry Lee |
40.6 |
42.6 |
42.3 |
44.2 |
4 |
42.4 |
3 |
|
Fanny Law |
42.1 |
41.8 |
39.6 |
43.5 |
4 |
41.8 |
4 |
|
Arthur Li |
-- |
-- |
38.8 |
40.3 |
2 |
39.6 |
5 |
|
Anna Wu |
-- |
47.4 |
-- |
-- |
1 |
47.4 |
6 |
|
Cheng Yiu-tong |
40.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
40.7 |
7 |
[14] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
[15] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 5, and then their average ratings.
The overall rankings in the past four surveys showed that four non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. Lam Woon-kwong, Regina Ip, Starry Lee and Fanny Law ranked 1st to 4th places respectively and achieved average ratings of 53.8, 48.1, 42.4 and 41.8 marks. Arthur Li has been on the list for two times with an average rating of 39.6 marks, ranked the 5th. Anna Wu and Cheng Yiu-tong have been on the list once with ratings of 47.4 and 40.7 marks, ranked at the 6th and 7th places respectively.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP SITE”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from August 28 to September 3, 2015 while the latest survey was conducted from February 29 to March 3, 2016. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
28/2/16 |
Alvin Yeung Ngok-kiu, candidate for Civic Party, wins the New Territories East Legislative Council by-election, with a turnout rate of 46.1%. |
|
27/2/16 |
The Legislative Council fails to vote for the high-speed railway project in the additional funding meeting held by finance committee. |
|
25/2/16 |
The copyright bill will be shelved if it is not passed by the Legislative Council next week, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung announced. |
|
24/2/16 |
Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah releases the 2016-2017 Budget. |
|
9/2/16 |
A conflict between protesters and police in Mong Kok was triggered by the eviction of food hawkers on the first day of the Lunar New Year. |
|
28/1/16 |
The chairman of the HKU governing council Arthur Li accuses Civic Party of manipulating students. |
|
13/1/16 |
CY Leung delivers the 2016 Policy Address. |
|
5/1/16 |
Missing of Causeway Bay bookstore's shareholder. |
|
22/12/15 |
Government launches public consultation on retirement protection. |
|
14/12/15 |
The implementation of the Competition Ordinance. |
|
22/11/15 |
The turnout rate of the District Council Election reaches a record high of 47%. |
|
20/11/15 |
The Innovation and Technology Bureau is established. |
Commentary
Frank Wai-Kin Lee, Research Manager of POP, observed, “The latest ‘top 5 Executive Councillors’ survey shows that although Regina Ip stays at the top in the naming survey, Lam Woon-kwong continues to surpass her in the rating stage. Compared to half a year ago, among all five Councillors who remain on the ‘top 5’ list across two surveys, only the rating of Lam Woon-kwong has dropped while those of the others have all increased, but only that of Fanny Law has increased beyond sampling error. In terms of absolute ratings, only Lam Woon-kwong on the ‘top 5’ list scores more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, all five Councillors remain at the same ranking as the previous survey. Ranked from the 1st to 5th are Lam Woon-kwong, Regina Ip, Starry Lee, Fanny Law and Arthur Li. It should be noted, however, that our list of ‘top 5’ only includes non-official Councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other Councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known Councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the ‘Opinion Daily’ of our POP Site.”
Future Release (Tentative)
- March 15, 2016 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials
