HKU POP releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack
Press Release on February 2, 2016
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Top Ten Legislative Councillors) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 90 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP conducted a double stage survey on the ratings of Legislative Councillors in January, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The latest survey of top 10 Legislative Councillors shows that compared to three months ago, in terms of familiarity, Alan Leong drops out of the ‘top 10’ list and replaced by Albert Chan who re-enters the list since April last year. In terms of absolute ratings, scores of all 9 Councillors who stayed on the list have gone down. Among them, the drops in ratings of Jasper Tsang, James Tien, Michael Tien, Regina Ip and Albert Ho have gone beyond sampling errors. In terms of relative rankings, Jasper Tsang continues to top the list, now for 12 consecutive times since April 2013. James Tien and Michael Tien remain at the second and the third positions, while Emily Lau goes up two positions to rank fourth. Regina Ip drops one position to rank fifth. Lee Cheuk-yan, Albert Ho and Leung Kwok-hung go up one position each to rank sixth to eighth. Albert Chan re-enters the list to rank ninth. Wong Yuk-man remains at the tenth position. It should be noted that our list of “top 10” only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 60 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the “top 10” list by design. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.7 and +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the rating survey is 67%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,030 successful interviews, not 1,030 x 65.7% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,010 successful interviews, not 1,010 x 67.2% response rate.
[3] The maximum sampling errors of various ratings are not more than +/-2.4. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling errors of various ratings not more than +/-2.4, at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of the top ten Legislative Councillors. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings [6] |
|
5-15/1/2016 (First stage naming survey) |
1,030 |
65.7% |
+/-3% |
|
18-21/1/2016 (Second stage rating survey) |
1,010 |
67.2% |
+/-2.4 |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
The research design of our “Top 10 Legislative Councillors” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from January 5 to 15. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. As a result, Leung Kwok-hung, Emily Lau, Wong Yuk-man, Albert Ho and Regina Ip were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted from January 18 to 21, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:
|
Date of survey |
19-21/1/15 |
13-16/4/15 |
13-16/7/15 |
12-17/10/15 |
18-21/1/16 |
Latest Change |
|
Sample base[7] |
546-644 |
551-599 |
567-683 |
554-664 |
578-680 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
65.2% |
69.1% |
67.2% |
65.0% |
67.2% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [7] |
-- |
|
Jasper Tsang |
62.0{1}[8] |
63.4{1} |
61.3{1}[8] |
62.6{1} |
59.7+/-1.7{1} |
-2.9[8] |
|
James Tien |
-- |
-- |
55.3{2} |
58.1{2}[8] |
51.7+/-1.7{2} |
-6.4[8] |
|
Michael Tien |
-- |
53.5{2} |
54.3{3} |
53.2{3} |
49.9+/-1.8{3} |
-3.3[8] |
|
Emily Lau |
40.4{5}[8] |
44.9{5}[8] |
44.8{6} |
47.1{6}[8] |
46.3+/-2.0{4} |
-0.8 |
|
Regina Ip |
46.3{2} |
49.0{3}[8] |
51.0{4} |
50.3{4} |
44.6+/-2.0{5} |
-5.7[8] |
|
Lee Cheuk-yan |
39.1{7}[8] |
42.6{6} |
41.4{8} |
45.6{7}[8] |
43.8+/-2.1{6} |
-1.8 |
|
Albert Ho |
39.2{6} |
40.5{7} |
42.0{7} |
42.2{8} |
39.1+/-1.9{7} |
-3.1[8] |
|
Leung Kwok-hung |
37.2{8}[8] |
37.1{9} |
35.6{10} |
38.3{9}[8] |
36.6+/-2.4{8} |
-1.7 |
|
Albert Chan |
34.4{9} |
38.8{8}[8] |
36.8 [9] |
-- |
36.1+/-2.2{9} |
-- |
|
Wong Yuk-man |
32.8{10} |
35.6{10}[8] |
38.7{9}[8] |
35.4{10}[8] |
35.3+/-2.1{10} |
-0.1 |
|
Chiang Lai-wan |
33.8[9] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
31.3+/-2.2[9] |
-- |
|
Christopher Chung |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
27.9+/2.1[9] |
-- |
|
Alan Leong |
42.4{4} |
46.0{4}[8] |
46.8{5} |
47.5{5} |
-- |
-- |
|
Starry Lee |
42.9[9] |
45.1 [9] |
-- |
45.4[9] |
-- |
-- |
|
Tam Yiu-chung |
44.1{3} |
45.2 [9] |
46.2 [9] |
44.0[9] |
-- |
-- |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.4at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. Starting from 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, with variable sub-sample size for each question. In latest survey, the sub-sample size of the questions varies between 578 and 680, and its effect has already been reflected in the sampling errors.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not counted.
The latest survey showed that Jasper Tsang was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 59.7 marks. James Tien and Michael Tien ranked the 2nd and 3rd with 51.7 and 49.9 marks respectively. The 4th to 6th ranks went to Emily Lau, Regina Ip and Lee Cheuk-yan who attained 46.3, 44.6 and 43.8 marks correspondingly. Albert Ho, Leung Kwok-hung, Albert Chan and Wong Yuk-man ranked the 7th to 10th, attaining 39.1, 36.6, 36.1 and 35.3 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 50.5 marks, while that for the top 10 was 44.3 marks. For this latest survey, Chiang Lai-wan and Christopher Chung obtained support ratings of 31.3 and 27.9 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:
|
Date of survey |
13-16/4/15 |
13-16/7/15 |
12-17/10/15 |
18-21 /1/1 6 |
No. of times on top 10 |
Average rating [10] |
Overall ranking [11] |
|
Jasper Tsang |
63.4 |
61.3 |
62.6 |
59.7 |
4 |
61.8 |
1 |
|
Michael Tien |
53.5 |
54.3 |
53.2 |
49.9 |
4 |
52.7 |
2 |
|
Regina Ip |
49.0 |
51.0 |
50.3 |
44.6 |
4 |
48.7 |
3 |
|
Emily Lau |
44.9 |
44.8 |
47.1 |
46.3 |
4 |
45.8 |
4 |
|
Lee Cheuk-yan |
42.6 |
41.4 |
45.6 |
43.8 |
4 |
43.3 |
5 |
|
Albert Ho |
40.5 |
42.0 |
42.2 |
39.1 |
4 |
41.0 |
6 |
|
Leung Kwok-hung |
37.1 |
35.6 |
38.3 |
36.6 |
4 |
36.9 |
7 |
|
Wong Yuk-man |
35.6 |
38.7 |
35.4 |
35.3 |
4 |
36.3 |
8 |
|
James Tien |
-- |
55.3 |
58.1 |
51.7 |
3 |
55.0 |
9 |
|
Alan Leong |
46.0 |
46.8 |
47.5 |
-- |
3 |
46.8 |
10 |
|
Albert Chan |
38.8 |
-- |
-- |
36.1 |
2 |
37.5 |
11 |
[10] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
[11] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that 8 Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Jasper Tsang at the top rank achieving an average rating of 61.8 marks, Michael Tien, Regina Ip, Emily Lau, Lee Cheuk-yan, Albert Ho, Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man ranked the 2nd to 8th and attained 52.7, 48.7, 45.8, 43.3, 41.0, 36.9 and 36.3 marks correspondingly. James Tien and Alan Leong have been on the list three times and ranked the 9th and 10th with 55.0 and 46.8 marks respectively. Albert Chan has been on the list twice and ranked the 11th, with 37.5 marks.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from Oct 12 to 17, 2015, while this survey was conducted from January 18 to 21, 2016. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
16/1/16 |
Democratic Progressive Party leader Tsai Ing-wen wins Taiwan’s presidential election. |
|
13/1/16 |
CY Leung delivers the 2016 Policy Address. |
|
5/1/16 |
Media reports on the missing of Causeway Bay bookstore's shareholder. |
|
22/12/15 |
Government launches public consultation on retirement protection. |
|
9/12/15 |
The second reading meeting of Copyright Amendment Bill in Legislative Council is adjourned. |
|
30/11/15 |
The latest estimate cost of high-speed railway revised to HK$84.4 billion. |
|
29/11/15 |
The Legislative Council Panel on Education held a public hearing on Territory-wide System Assessment. |
|
22/11/15 |
The turnout rate of the District Council Election reaches a record high of 47%. |
|
17/11/15 |
Hong Kong draws tie with China in the World Cup Asian qualifying match. |
|
31/10/15 |
Territory-wide System Assessment will be reviewed by Education Bureau. |
|
21/10/15 |
Public hospital doctors participate in a sit-in protest at Queen Elizabeth Hospital over their exclusion from the Civil Service Pay Level Survey. |
|
16/10/15 |
Chief Secretary Carrie Lam says that the lead-in-water scandal has been politicised. |
|
15/10/15 |
Seven police officers and Tsang Kin chiu are prosecuted on the same day. |
Commentary
Edward Chit-Fai Tai, Senior Data Analyst of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “The latest survey of top 10 Legislative Councillors shows that compared to three months ago, in terms of familiarity, Alan Leong drops out of the ‘top 10’ list and replaced by Albert Chan who re-enters the list since April last year. In terms of absolute ratings, the scores of all the 9 Councillors who stayed on the list have gone down. Among them, the drops in ratings of Jasper Tsang, James Tien, Michael Tien, Regina Ip and Albert Ho have gone beyond sampling errors. In terms of relative rankings, Jasper Tsang continues to top the list, now for 12 consecutive times since April 2013. James Tien and Michael Tien remain at the second and the third positions, while Emily Lau goes up two positions to rank fourth. Regina Ip drops one position to rank fifth. Lee Cheuk-yan, Albert Ho and Leung Kwok-hung go up one position each to rank sixth to eighth. Albert Chan re-enters the list to rank ninth. Wong Yuk-man remains at the tenth position. It should be noted that our list of ‘top 10’ only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 60 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the ‘top 10’ list by design. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of these popularity ratings using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page.”
Future Release (Tentative)
February 11, 2016 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Second follow-up survey of Policy Address
