HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack
Press Release on January 26, 2016
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) at The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 89 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 90th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,010 Hong Kong people between 18 and 21 January 2016 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that after some discussions of the Policy Address, the popularity of CE CY Leung recovers. His support rating went down from 37.5 marks before the Address to 37.0 in the evening after the Address was delivered, then up 1.7 to 38.7 now, but still below the warning line of 45. Leung’s approval rate now stands at 23%, disapproval rate 62%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points, significantly increased by 15 percentage points from that registered in the evening of the Address. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has not changed much compared to a month ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 24%, dissatisfaction rate 51%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 28 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of CY Leung as CE in terms of both support rate and rating. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, Research Manager of POP, Frank Wai-Kin Lee, reprints the abstracts of two articles written by Director of POP, Robert Chung, before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,010 successful interviews, not 1,010 x 67.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.0 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
18-21/1/2016 |
1,010 |
67.2% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people’s satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
18-24/11/15 |
3-7/12/15 |
16-21/12/15 |
4-6/1/16 |
13/1/16 [7] |
18-21/1/16 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
1,021 |
1,011 |
1,012 |
1,013 |
608 |
1,010 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
66.4% |
65.4% |
66.6% |
63.9% |
64.1% |
67.2% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error [8] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE CY Leung |
43.3 |
41.8 |
42.7 |
37.5[10] |
37.0 |
38.7+/-2.0 |
+1.7 |
|
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung |
26% |
24% |
26% |
22%[10] |
18%[10] |
23+/-3% |
+5%[10] |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung |
58% |
63%[10] |
59%[10] |
66%[10] |
72%[10] |
62+/-3% |
-10%[10] |
|
Net approval rate |
-33% |
-39%[10] |
-33%[10] |
-44%[10] |
-54%[10] |
-39+/-5% |
+15%[10] |
|
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[9] |
26% |
-- |
24% |
-- |
-- |
24+/-3% |
-- |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[9] |
45% |
-- |
48% |
-- |
-- |
51+/-4% |
+3% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-19% |
-- |
-24% |
-- |
-- |
-28+/-6% |
-4% |
|
Mean value[9] |
2.6
|
-- |
2.6
|
-- |
-- |
2.5+/-0.1 (Base=664) |
-0.1 |
[7] This survey was the instant survey after the Policy Address and only asked rating of CE as well as his vote of confidence. Its sample size was 608.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 671.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 38.7 marks, and 23% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 39 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 24% were satisfied, whereas 51% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 28 percentage points. The mean score is 2.5, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rating and support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive by respondents’ age and education attainment, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:
|
Date of survey: 18-21/1/2016 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Rating of CE CY Leung[11] |
25.4+/-3.2 (175) |
36.6+/-3.2 (363) |
45.5+/-3.1 (453) |
38.7+/-2.0
|
|
|
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE[11] |
Support |
4+/-3%
|
20+/-4%
|
32+/-4%
|
22+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
86+/-5%
|
65+/-5%
|
51+/-5%
|
62+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
10+/-5%
|
15+/-4%
|
18+/-4%
|
16+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
|
Date of survey: 18-21/1/2016 |
Primary or below |
Secondary |
Tertiary or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Rating of CE CY Leung[12] |
51.3+/-4.5 (230) |
39.3+/-2.7 (474) |
26.8+/-3.2 (283) |
38.5+/-2.0
|
|
|
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE[12] |
Support |
41+/-6%
|
21+/-4%
|
9+/-3%
|
22+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
41+/-6%
|
63+/-4%
|
79+/-5%
|
62+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
17+/-5%
|
17+/-3%
|
12+/-4%
|
15+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 16 to 21 December, 2015 while this survey was conducted from 18 to 21 January, 2016. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
20/1/16 |
The Hong Kong dollar almost falls to 7.83 against the US dollar while Hang Seng Index tumbles to 18,886. |
|
13/1/16 |
CY Leung delivers the 2016 Policy Address. |
|
5/1/16 |
Media reports on the missing of Causeway Bay bookstore's shareholder. |
|
31/12/15 |
Hong Kong 2015 year in review. |
|
26/12/15 |
The number of mainland tour groups visiting Hong Kong slumped by 30% during the Christmas period. |
|
23/12/15 |
CY Leung pays a duty visit to Beijing. |
|
22/12/15 |
Government launches public consultation on retirement protection. |
|
21/12/15 |
Six people are arrested over rubbish bin blast outside the Legislative Council. |
Commentary
Frank Wai-Kin Lee, Research Manager of POP, observed, “Our latest survey shows that after some discussions of the Policy Address, the popularity of CE CY Leung recovers. His support rating went down from 37.5 marks before the Address to 37.0 in the evening after the Address was delivered, then up 1.7 to 38.7 now, but still below the warning line of 45. Leung’s approval rate now stands at 23%, disapproval rate 62%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points, significantly increased by 15 percentage points from that registered in the evening of the Address. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has not changed much compared to a month ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 24%, dissatisfaction rate 51%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 28 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of CY Leung as CE in terms of both support rate and rating. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’. Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, I reprint the abstracts of two articles written by Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.”
“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis...”
“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”
Future Release (Tentative)
February 2, 2016 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of Top 10 Legislative Councillors
