HKU POP: PSI hits 20-year lowBack
Press Release on January 15, 2016
| Detailed Findings (Public Sentiment Index Feature Page) |
Background
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by Public Opinion Programme (POP) at The University of Hong Kong aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal, the grading reference of the scores are shown below. For methodological detailed please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk.
POP started to pilot study the “Public Sentiment Index” in year 2010 in collaboration with NowTV. The first survey was conducted in June 2010, followed by a series of monthly tracking surveys in 2011. There were altogether 13 surveys, covered by 11 releases from March 2011 to January 2012. All results have been uploaded to the POP Site.
At the end of June 2012, before the 15th anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong, POP officially released a “PSI analysis” with figures dating back to 1992, spanning over 20 years. Moreover, the frequency of the study was set at twice a month. In October 2012, echoing the start of a new Legislative Council, POP decided to set the cut-off date of all PSI analyses at the Sunday proceeding every 15th and last day of month, whereas the release date was set at the first Thursday following the cut-off date, except under special circumstances.
Cut-off date of the PSI figures released by POP today is January 10, 2016, while that of the next round of release will be January 24, 2016. The tentative release date for the next release will be January 28, 2016 (Thursday).
Latest Figures
From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. The PSI released by POP today shows that as of January 10, 2016, the latest Public Sentiment Index (PSI) is 52.8, down 21.4 from late-December. As for the Government Appraisal (GA) and Society Appraisal (SA), the scores are 66.5 and 64.9, down 13.1 and 18.6 respectively. The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
|
|
|
Latest figure |
Public Sentiment Index
|
Government Appraisal
|
Society Appraisal
|
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
|
Release date |
29/10/15 |
12/11/15 |
3/12/15 |
17/12/15 |
30/12/15 |
15/1/16 |
Latest change[2] |
|
Cut-off date |
25/10/15 |
8/11/15 |
29/11/15 |
13/12/15 |
27/12/15 |
10/1/16 |
-- |
|
Public Sentiment Index (PSI) |
67.1 |
69.8 |
73.0 |
61.4 |
74.2 |
52.8 |
-21.4 |
|
Government Appraisal (GA) |
76.3 |
80.0 |
79.5 |
73.2 |
79.6 |
66.5 |
-13.1 |
|
Rating of CE |
41.3 |
42.5 |
43.3 |
41.8 |
42.7 |
37.5 |
-5.2 |
|
Net approval rate of CE |
-35% |
-36% |
-33% |
-39% |
-33% |
-44% |
-11% |
|
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
-0.2 |
|
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
2.6 |
-0.3 |
|
Society Appraisal (SA) |
76.5 |
76.8 |
82.0 |
71.1 |
83.6 |
64.9 |
-18.6 |
|
People’s satisfaction with political condition |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
-0.2 |
|
Weighting index of political condition |
0.31[1] |
0.31[1] |
0.31[1] |
0.31[1] |
0.30 |
0.30[1] |
-- |
|
People’s satisfaction with economic condition |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
-0.3 |
|
Weighting index of economic condition |
0.34[1] |
0.34[1] |
0.34[1] |
0.34[1] |
0.34 |
0.34[1] |
-- |
|
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
-0.3 |
|
Weighting index of livelihood condition |
0.35[1] |
0.35[1] |
0.35[1] |
0.35[1] |
0.36 |
0.36[1] |
-- |
[1] POP will adopt the latest published weighting index figures when there are no respective updates.
[2] Latest changes are based on the differences between the exact values of the two figures, but not the rounded figures shown in the table.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
|
Score value |
Percentile |
Score value |
Percentile |
|
140-200 |
Highest 1% |
0-60 |
Lowest 1% |
|
125 |
Highest 5% |
75 |
Lowest 5% |
|
120 |
Highest 10% |
80 |
Lowest 10% |
|
110 |
Highest 25% |
90 |
Lowest 25% |
|
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below |
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The latest PSI of 52.8, GA and SA scores of 66.5 and 64.9 can all be considered as among the worst 1% across the past 20 years or so.
Commentary
Edward Chit-Fai Tai, Senior Data Analyst of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Hong Kong’s Public Sentiment Index has plunged by 21.4 points since the last release, down to 52.8 in early January. This is the second time the Index has dropped below 60-point level over the past 20 years or so. The first time was registered in November 2013. The drastic drop in PSI is attributable to the decreases in both component scores. The Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance goes down 13.1 points to 66.5 points, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment goes down 18.6 points to 64.9 points. Both scores are at their lowest over the past 20 years or so. Recent major event is mainly surrounding the disappearance of Causeway Bay Bookstore’s shareholders, while the effect of CE’s latest Policy Address on PSI readings is yet to be seen. When making comparisons, it should be noted that there are only monthly PSI figures before July 2012, instead of taking two separate measurements per month. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in the ‘Opinion Daily’ of our POP Site.”
Next PSI Release (Tentative)
January 28, 2016 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm
Reference Materials on Survey on PSI Please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk.
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