HKU POP SITE releases a new round of survey results on people's trust in different governments, their confidence in the future, and ratings of political groupsBack

Press Release on September 2, 2003

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest results of people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems", as well as the latest ratings of the most well-known political groups. Ratings aside, various figures obtained since February this year are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	14-18/2	16-23/4	13-18/6	18-20/8
Sample base	1,045	1,021	1,043	1,032
Overall response rate	68.3%	68.9%	68.0%	70.3%
Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)*	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%

Trust in HKSAR Government**	31%	27%	32%	33%
Distrust in HKSAR Government**	42%	46%	41%	36%
Trust in Beijing Government**	41%	32%	40%	43%
Distrust in Beijing Government**	26%	36%	27%	25%
Confidence in HK's future	42%	36%	42%	49%
No-confidence in HK's future	46%	51%	45%	35%
Confidence in China's future	83%	75%	79%	81%
No-confidence in China's future	9%	13%	11%	8%
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	49%	51%	49%	52%
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	39%	38%	38%	33%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale

Results showed that 33% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 43% trusted the Beijing Central Government, 49% were confident in Hong Kong's future, 81% were confident in China's future, while 52% expressed confidence in "one country, two systems".

As for people's ratings of the most well-known political groups, findings obtained since February are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	14-18/2	15-20/5	18-20/8
Sample base	1,045	1,067	1,032
Overall response rate	68.3%	65.1%	70.3%
Sampling error of ratings(at 95% confidence level)*	+/- 1.8	+/- 1.8	+/- 1.8

CTU	55.5 [1]	54.4 [1]	51.3 [1]
LP	49.3 [7]	49.3 [6]	50.7 [2]
DP	51.9 [4]	49.8 [5]	50.1 [3]
FTU	54.2 [2]	54.1 [2]	49.0 [4]
ADPL	52.1 [3]	52.4 [3]	48.2 [5]
Frontier	50.2 [5]	50.6 [4]	46.0 [6]
HKASPDMC	46.5 [8]	47.5 [8]	45.3 [7]
DAB	49.9 [6]	47.9 [7]	41.2 [8]
AFA	37.1 [9]	39.1 [9]	35.4 [9]

Findings revealed that the top 3 on the list were Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (CTU), Liberal Party (LP) and Democratic Party (DP), attaining 51.3, 50.7 and 50.1 marks correspondingly. Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) and Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) ranked 4th and 5th, with support ratings of 49.0 and 48.2 marks respectively. The 6th to the 9th ranks fell to Frontier, Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (HKASPDMC), Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) and April Fifth Action (AFA), in respective order. Since the tenth-ranking political group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it was dropped from the list (please refer to the explanations in the subsequent paragraph as well as under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page). The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 49.9 marks, representing a significant drop of 2.3 marks from that of mid-May.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following analysis: "Results showed that people's trust in the local and central governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future and in "one country, two systems" have all rebounded to reach their peaks this year, while their net confidence in Hong Kong's future has also changed from negative to positive, but the figure is still far behind that for China's future. Meanwhile, people's trust in the local government is still negative, far behind that of the central government. As for the ranking of political groups, most of their ratings have dropped. LP is clearly the winner this time, it jumped from the 6th place in May to become 2nd. The major losers are DAB and FTU, they lost 6.7 and 5.1 marks respectively."

The research design of our "Most well-known political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted between August 11-12. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party (DP), Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), Frontier and Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups were then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted between August 18-20, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. Finally, any group which failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate was also dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998.

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be September 9, 2003, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest figures on the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.