HKU POP releases society appraisalBack

Press Release on January 5, 2016

| Detailed Findings (People's Level of Concern about Political, Economic and livelihood problems) |

Special Announcements

1. Since the figures released by Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong at the “HKU POP SITE” ( http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2015, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “POP Site” the raw data of all 87 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,012 Hong Kong people from December 16 to 21, 2015 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that using a one-in-three choices method, people currently concern livelihood issues the most, followed by economic and then political issues. This has been the usual pattern for many years. In terms of absolute ratings, the order of people’s concern across three broad areas is exactly the same. However, all absolute ratings have increased significantly compared to six months ago. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 20, negative 6 and negative 55 percentage points. Among them, the net satisfaction rate of economic condition has dropped significantly compared to six months ago. People are still least satisfied with the current political condition. In-depth analyses show that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current livelihood condition. The maximum sampling error of all percentages in the survey mentioned is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,012 successful interviews, not 1,012 x 66.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.16 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP Site” the latest findings of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[6]
16-21/12/2015	1,012	66.6%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	20-30/12/13	16-19/6/14	19-30/12/14	29/6-2/7/15	*16-21/12/15*	*Latest Change*
Sample base	1,019	1,018	1,017	1,037	*1,012*	--
Overall response rate	67.3%	68.4%	67.8%	67.6%	*66.6%*	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding and error^[7]*	--
Most concerned with livelihood problems^[8]	58%	56%	55%	60%^[10]	*59+/-3%*	*-1%*
Most concerned with economic problems	24%	18%^[10]	23%^[10]	19%^[10]	*20+/-3%*	*+1%*
Most concerned with political problems	16%^[10]	22%^[10]	21%	17%^[10]	*18+/-2%*	*+1%*
Rating on concern for livelihood problems^[8]	7.24	7.20	7.36^[10]	7.13^[10]	*7.39+/-0.12*	*+0.26^[10]*
Rating on concern for economic problems	6.98	6.76^[10]	6.98^[10]	6.69^[10]	*7.03+/-0.12*	*+0.34^[10]*
Rating on concern for political problems	5.77	5.89^[10]	6.24^[10]	5.74^[10]	*6.10+/-0.16*	*+0.36^[10]*

Date of survey	20-30/12/13	16-19/6/14	19-30/12/14	29/6-2/7/15	*16-21/12/15*	*Latest Change*
Sample base	1,019	1,018	1,017	1,037	*1,012*	--
Overall response rate	67.3%	68.4%	67.8%	67.6%	*66.6%*	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding and error^[7]*	--
Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate^[8][9]	19%	26%^[10]	24%	20%^[10]	*23+/-3%*	*+3%*
Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[8][9]	56%	50%	47%	45%	*43+/-3%*	*-2%*
Net satisfaction rate	-37%	-25%^[10]	-23%	-25%	*-20+/-5%*	*+5%*
Mean value^[9]	2.4 (Base=1,010)	2.6 (Base=1,009)	2.6 (Base=1,005)	2.6 (Base=1,023)	*2.7+/-0.1* *(Base=999)*	*+0.1*
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate^[9]	30%	35%^[10]	34%	31%	*29+/-3%*	*-2%*
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[9]	40%	35%^[10]	32%	31%	*35+/-3%*	*+4%^[10]*
Net satisfaction rate	-10%	-1%^[10]	1%	0%	*-6+/-5%*	*-6%^[10]*
Mean value^[9]	2.8 (Base=1,004)	2.9 (Base=987)	3.0 (Base=1,006)	2.9 (Base=1,015)	*2.9+/-0.1* *(Base=987)*	--
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate^[9]	7%	11%^[10]	12%	7%^[10]	*10+/-2%*	*+3%^[10]*
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[9]	69%	65%	63%	64%	*65+/-3%*	*+1%*
Net satisfaction rate	-62%	-54%	-51%	-57%^[10]	*-55+/-4%*	*+2%*
Mean value^[9]	2.0 (Base=952)	2.1 (Base=936)	2.2 (Base=960)	2.0^[10] (Base=962)	*2.1+/-0.1* *(Base=923)*	*+0.1*

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.16 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[8] The wordings used before the June 2010 survey were “social problems” and “social condition”. We take them to mean the same as “livelihood problems” and “livelihood condition” in the survey context.

[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey showed that 59% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems, 20% with economic problems, while 18% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems were 7.39, 7.03 and 6.10 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people’s satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions were 23%, 29% and 10% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were negative 20, negative 6 and negative 55 percentage points. The mean scores of the livelihood, political and economic conditions were 2.7, 2.9 and 2.1, meaning the former two close to “half-half” whereas the latter close to “quite dissatisfied”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. As for education attainment, according to their answers, we grouped them into primary or below, secondary, and tertiary or above. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ satisfaction with the present livelihood condition in Hong Kong by age and education attainment:

Date of survey：16-21/12/15

18-29

30-49

50 or above

Overall Sample

Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the present livelihood condition in Hong Kong?^[11]

Satisfied

11+/-5%

(20)

18+/-4%

(68)

32+/-4%

(146)

23+/-3%

(234)

Half-half

23+/-6%

(42)

36+/-5%

(131)

32+/-4%

(147)

32+/-3%

(319)

Dissatisfied

65+/-7%

(116)

45+/-5%

(165)

34+/-4%

(156)

44+/-3%

(437)

Don't know/

hard to say

0+/-0%

(0)

1+/-1%

(4)

2+/-1%

(9)

1+/-1%

(13)

Total

100%

(177)

100%

(368)

100%

(458)

100%

(1,003)

Mean value

2.2+/-0.1

(177)

2.6+/-0.1

(364)

2.9+/-0.1

(449)

2.7+/-0.1

(990)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey：16-21/12/15

Primary or below

Secondary

Tertiary or above

Overall Sample

Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the present livelihood condition in Hong Kong?^[12]

Satisfied

37+/-6%

(87)

21+/-4%

(100)

16+/-4%

(46)

23+/-3%

(234)

Half-half

33+/-6%

(80)

35+/-4%

(169)

25+/-5%

(70)

32+/-3%

(318)

Dissatisfied

27+/-6%

(65)

43+/-5%

(209)

59+/-6%

(166)

44+/-3%

(440)

Don't know /

hard to say

3+/-2%

(6)

1+/-1%

(5)

1+/-1%

(2)

1+/-1%

(13)

Total

100%

(238)

100%

(483)

100%

(284)

100%

(1,005)

Mean value

3.1+/-0.1

(231)

2.7+/-0.1

(478)

2.4+/-0.1

(282)

2.7+/-0.1

(992)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from June 29 to July 2, 2015 while this survey was conducted from December 16 to 21, 2015. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

15/12/15	CLP Holdings and Hongkong Electric announce around 1% cut in electricity bills next year.
14/12/15	Media report the implementation of the Competition Ordinance.
4/12/15	The Rating and Valuation Department announces the October House Price Index drop by 1.11%.
30/11/15	The latest estimate cost of high-speed railway revised to HK$84.4 billion.
27/11/15	Mainland and Hong Kong reach CEPA service trade agreement.
22/11/15	The turnout rate of the District Council Election reaches a record high of 47%.
20/11/15	The Innovation and Technology Bureau is established.
31/10/15	Territory-wide System Assessment will be reviewed by Education Bureau.
10/10/15	Commission on Poverty announces 960,000 Hong Kong people are living in poverty, falls to a six-year low.
27/9/15	First anniversary of the Occupy Movement.
6/9/15	Protest against parallel traders in Sheung Shui.
10/7/15	Water samples from Kai Ching Estate contain excessive lead.
6/7/15	Hang Seng Index falls sharply.

Commentary

Edward Chit-Fai Tai, Senior Data Analyst of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “According to our latest survey, using a one-in-three choices method, people currently concern livelihood issues the most, followed by economic and then political issues. This has been the usual pattern for many years. In terms of absolute ratings, the order of people’s concern across three broad areas is exactly the same. However, all absolute ratings have increased significantly compared to six months ago. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 20, negative 6 and negative 55 percentage points. Among them, the net satisfaction rate of economic condition has dropped significantly compared to six months ago. People are still least satisfied with the current political condition. In-depth analyses show that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current livelihood condition. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

January 7, 2016 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Second part of Macau annual survey 2015
January 11, 2016 (Monday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s expectation of CE’s Policy Address
January 12, 2016 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials