HKU POP releases the latest figures of the 2015 year-end and 2016 forecast surveyBack
Press Release on December 31, 2015
| Detailed Findings (Year-end Reviews) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 87 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,012 Hong Kong people between 10 and 15 December 2015 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that people have remained dissatisfied with Hong Kong’s development in the year past, with net satisfaction at negative 26 percentage points now, similar to the low point registered last year. Over 50% said they lived a happy life in the year past, but 16% said they were not happy, giving a net happiness value of positive 34 percentage points, which is comparable to last year, while net optimism on next year’s personal and societal development have slightly dropped to positive 20 and negative 18 percentage points respectively. Figures show that although people are not satisified with Hong Kong’s development in the year past and not optimistic about the future, they are still somewhat leading a happy life. Besides, if people had to choose between having a prosperous, bribery-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for a bribery-free society. Looking ahead, the percentage of those who consider housing to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government has gone up by 4 percentage points to 38%, that of economy has slightly increased to 10% but that of constitutional reform has fallen markedly by 17 percentage points to 10%, while that of traffic has increased to 4%, a record high in 21 years. As for people’s New Year wishes, without explicit prompting, close to 40% and 35% made a wish on personal matters and society-related issues, while that on personal matters registered a record high since 1992, and 11% wished for world peace. Further analysis shows that the citizens aged between 18 and 29 are most dissatisfied with Hong Kong’s development in 2015, and those aged between 30 and 49 are most pessimistic about the year ahead. The maximum sampling error of the survey is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of net values need another calculation, response rate being 65%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,012 successful interviews, not 1,012 x 65.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% and of net values not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest findings of the 2015 review and 2016 forecast survey. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Sample base |
Overall response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
10-15/12/2015 |
1,012 |
65.4% |
+/-3% |
[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Herewith the figures of 2015 review and 2016 forecast, compared with similar figures obtained in recent years:
|
Date of survey |
14-17/12/12 |
16-19/12/13 |
17-22/12/14 |
10-15/12/15 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
1,019 |
1,018 |
1,021 |
1,012 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
67.5% |
68.6% |
68.0% |
65.4% |
-- |
|
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[7] |
-- |
|
Satisfied with HK’s development in the year past[8] |
25%[10] |
27% |
22%[10] |
23+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Dissatisfied with HK’s development in the year past[8] |
46%[10] |
41%[10] |
50%[10] |
48+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-21%[10] |
-14%[10] |
-28%[10] |
-26+/-5% |
+2% |
|
Mean value[8] |
2.6 [10] (Base=985) |
2.7 (Base=976) |
2.6 [10] (Base=999) |
2.6+/-0.1 (Base=979) |
-- |
|
Expected HK’s development to be better next year |
30% |
28% |
29% |
23+/-3% |
-6%[10] |
|
Expected HK’s development to be worse next year |
32%[10] |
35% |
43%[10] |
41+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Net optimism |
-2%[10] |
-7% |
-14%[10] |
-18+/-5% |
-4% |
|
Perceived housing to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year |
41%[10] |
35%[10] |
34% |
38+/-3% |
+4%[10] |
|
Perceived economy to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year |
14%[10] |
18%[10] |
9%[10] |
10+/-2%[11] |
+1% |
|
Perceived constitutional development to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year |
13%[10] |
20%[10] |
27%[10] |
10+/-2%[11] |
-17%[10] |
|
Perceived traffic to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
4+/-1%[12] |
+4%[10] |
|
Perceived welfare to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year |
10% |
9% |
3%[10] |
4+/-1%[12] |
+1% |
|
Wished HK to become a corruption-free society[9] |
31%[10] |
33% |
27%[10] |
27+/-3% |
-- |
|
Wished HK to become a fair society |
23%[10] |
23% |
23% |
23+/-3% |
-- |
|
Wished HK to become a prosperous society |
18%[10] |
20% |
22% |
20+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Respondents who were happy in the year past[8] |
58% |
56% |
50%[10] |
51+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Respondents who were unhappy in the year past[8] |
12% |
13% |
17%[10] |
16+/-2% |
-1% |
|
Net happiness value |
46% |
43% |
34%[10] |
34+/-5% |
-- |
|
Mean value[8] |
3.5 (Base=1,013) |
3.5 (Base=1,012) |
3.4 (Base=1,014) |
3.4+/-0.1 (Base=1,010) |
-- |
|
Expected personal development to become better next year |
44%[10] |
40%[10] |
38% |
36+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Expected personal development to become worse next year |
13%[10] |
13% |
16%[10] |
16+/-2% |
-- |
|
Net optimism |
31%[10] |
27% |
22%[10] |
20+/-4% |
-2% |
|
New Year wishes: Personal matters (e.g. health, career, studies, wealth, family, love, marriage, friendship and other personal issues) |
39% |
38% |
29%[10] |
41+/-3% |
+12%[10] |
|
New Year wishes: Society-related (e.g. economic related, people’s livelihood, political related and others) |
29%[10] |
41%[10] |
47%[10] |
34+/-3% |
-13%[10] |
|
New Year wishes: World peace-related |
17%[10] |
9%[10] |
14%[10] |
11+/-2% |
-3%[10] |
|
No special wish |
10% |
8% |
8% |
10+/-2% |
+2% |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% and of net values not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9] The expression “clean society” was used in 2006 and before. In 2007, it was changed to “corruption-free society” to highlight the original meaning of the question.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[11] In one decimal place, the respective percentages of perceiving economy and constitutional development to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year are 10.5% and 10.3%. Thus, they are ranked second and third.
[12] In one decimal place, the respective percentages of perceiving traffic and welfare to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year are 3.9% and 3.8%. Thus, they are ranked fourth and fifth.
Looking back at the year past, 23% said they were satisfied with Hong Kong’s development, 48% were dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction of negative 26 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, which is between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Meanwhile, 23% expected Hong Kong’s development in general to become “better” next year, 41% said it would be worse, giving a net optimism of negative 18 percentage points. Besides, 38% considered “housing” to be the most important problem that the government should tackle next year, 10% each thought “economy” and “constitutional development” was the most pressing problem, while 4% each thought “traffic” and “welfare” should be tackled respectively. If one had to choose between a “prosperous”, “corruption-free”, “fair”, “free”, and “welfare” society, 27% of the respondents would wish Hong Kong to become a “corruption-free” society, while 23% and 20% opted for a “fair” and “prosperous” society respectively.
Findings also showed that 51% of the respondents said they were happy in the year past, 16% were not, giving a net happiness of positive 34 percentage points. The mean score is 3.4, which is between “quite happy” and “half-half” in general. As for the coming year, 36% believed their personal development would become better, 16% thought they would be worse off, giving a net optimism of positive 20 percentage points. With respect to people's New Year wishes, 41% were related to personal matters, 34% were society-related, 11% were world peace-related, 10% did not have any New Year wish.
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of the satisfaction of HK’s development in year 2015 and the expectation of HK’s development in year 2016 by respondents' age:
|
Date of survey: 10-15/12/2015 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Satisfaction of HK’s development in year 2015 [13] |
Satisfied |
19+/-6%
|
19+/-4%
|
28+/-4%
|
23+/-3%
|
|
Half-half |
21+/-6%
|
29+/-5%
|
26+/-4%
|
26+/-3%
|
|
|
Dissatisfied |
59+/-7%
|
52+/-5%
|
40+/-5%
|
48+/-3%
|
|
|
Not sure |
1+/-1%
|
<1+/-<1%
|
6+/-2%
|
3+/-1%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
|
Mean value |
2.5+/-0.1 (174) |
2.5+/-0.1 (365) |
2.7+/-0.1 (427) |
2.6+/-0.1 (966) |
|
[13] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
|
Date of survey: 10-15/12/2015 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Expectation of HK’s development in year 2016[14] |
Better |
24+/-6%
|
23+/-4%
|
24+/-4%
|
23+/-3%
|
|
Half-half |
37+/-7%
|
22+/-4%
|
24+/-4%
|
26+/-3%
|
|
|
Worse |
39+/-7%
|
49+/-5%
|
35+/-4%
|
41+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / hard to say |
1+/-1%
|
6+/-2%
|
17+/-4%
|
10+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[14] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
Since August 2007, POP would normally include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This release is an exception, because the surveys invovled were one year apart, and any of the significant events listed in our “Opinion Daily” in between might have affected people's comments for the year past. Thus, this release has not highlighted any event from “Opinion Daily”, but readers can make their own judgment based on the detailed records listed in our webpage.
Commentary
Frank Wai-Kin Lee, Research Manager of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our annual survey completed in mid-December shows that people have remained dissatisfied with Hong Kong’s development in the year past, with net satisfaction at negative 26 percentage points now, similar to the low point registered last year. Over 50% said they lived a happy life in the year past, but 16% said they were not happy, giving a net happiness value of positive 34 percentage points, which is comparable to last year, while net optimism on next year’s personal and societal development have slightly dropped to positive 20 and negative 18 percentage points respectively. Figures show that although people are not satisified with Hong Kong’s development in the year past and not optimistic about the future, they are still somewhat leading a happy life. Besides, if people had to choose between having a prosperous, bribery-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for a bribery-free society. Looking ahead, the percentage of those who consider housing to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government has gone up by 4 percentage points to 38%, that of economy has slightly increased to 10% but that of constitutional reform has fallen markedly by 17 percentage points to 10%, while that of traffic has increased to 4%, a record high in 21 years. As for people’s New Year wishes, without explicit prompting, close to 40% and 35% made a wish on personal matters and society-related issues, while that on personal matters registered a record high since 1992, and 11% wished for world peace. Further analysis shows that the citizens aged between 18 and 29 are most dissatisfied with Hong Kong’s development in 2015, and those aged between 30 and 49 are most pessimistic about the year ahead.”
Future Releases (Tentative)
- January 5, 2016 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s appraisal of society's conditions
- January 7, 2016 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Second part of Macau annual survey 2015
