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Press Release on December 15, 2015

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying) | Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |

Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 85 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 86th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,011 Hong Kong people between 3 and 7 December, 2015 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted in early December shows that the popularity figures of CE CY Leung has slightly decreased from late November. His latest support rating is 41.8 marks, still below the warning line of 45. His approval rate now stands at 24%, disapproval rate 63%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 59.0 marks, her approval rate is 52%, disapproval rate 15%, giving a net popularity of positive 37 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 62.7 marks, approval rate 63%, disapproval rate 10%, thus a net popularity of positive 53 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 47.1 marks, approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 27%, giving a net popularity of positive 1 percentage point. In terms of popularity rating, John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, excluding the newly appointed Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, who has no prior record for time series analysis, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 3 among the other 12 Directors have gone up, while 8 have gone down and 1 remains unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan register significant changes in their net approval rates, down by 16 and 14 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Lau Kong-wah, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 28, 31 and 49 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 70 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang, Carrie Lam and Matthew Cheung fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Anthony Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Gregory So, Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen, Lau Kong-wah and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan, Nicholas Yang and Clement Cheung can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Eddie Ng fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Chit-Fai Tai, reprints the abstracts of two articles written by Director of POP, Robert Chung, before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,011 successful interviews, not 1,011 x 65.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	16-22/9/15	5-8/10/15	19-23/10/15	2-5/11/15	18-24/11/15	3-7/12/15	Latest change
Sample base	1,018	1,003	1,007	1,008	1,021	1,011	--
Overall response rate	64.0%	64.4%	66.8%	66.4%	66.4%	65.4%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error [8]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	39.2[9]	39.8	41.3	42.5	43.3	41.8+/-1.8	-1.5
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	20%[9]	24%[9]	24%	24%	26%	24+/-3%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	62%	62%	59%	60%	58%	63+/-3%	+5%[9]
Net approval rate	-42%[9]	-38%	-35%	-36%	-33%	-39+/-5%	-6%[9]

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	3-6/8/15	7-10/9/15	5-8/10/15	2-5/11/15	3-7/12/15	Latest change
Sample base[10]	564-667	551-603	593-622	608-680	572-653	--
Overall response rate	64.9%	64.9%	64.4%	66.4%	65.4%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error [11]	--
Rating of CS Carrie Lam	56.3	56.9	57.4	55.7	59.0+/-2.0	+3.3[12]
Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam	49%	53%	52%	50%	52+/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam	13%	15%	16%	17%	15+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	36%	37%	35%	33%	37+/-6%	+4%
Rating of FS John Tsang	60.6	61.7	61.7	61.8	62.7+/-1.5	+0.9
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang	60%	59%	66%[12]	64%	63+/-4%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang	11%	9%	7%	8%	10+/-2%	+2%
Net approval rate	49%	50%	59%[12]	56%	53+/-5%	-3%
Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen	47.4	46.6	45.5	48.8[12]	47.1+/-2.0	-1.7
Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen	32%	31%	31%	33%	28+/-4%	-5%[12]
Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen	22%	29%[12]	29%	26%	27+/-4%	+1%
Net approval rate	9%	2%[12]	2%	7%	1+/-6%	-6%

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[16] The Innovation and Technology Bureau was established on November 20, 2015 and Nicholas Yang was appointed Secretary for Innovation and Technology.

[17] Based on the figures in early October survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung and Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok are 13.4 and 13.2 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked fifth and sixth at that time.

[18] Based on the figures in early November survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So are 11.4 and 10.8 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked sixth and seventh at that time.

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 41.8 marks, and 24% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 39 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 59.0, 62.7 and 47.1 marks, and 52%, 63% and 28% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 37, positive 53 and positive 1 percentage points respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 70 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan with net approval rates of positive 35 and positive 22 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for Development Paul Chan and Secretary for Education Eddie Ng ranked 4th to 13th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 17, positive 14, positive 12, positive 8, positive 7, positive 6, positive 2, negative 28, negative 31 and negative 49 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 2 to 5 November, 2015 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 7 December, 2015. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Chit-Fai Tai.

Our latest survey conducted in early December shows that the popularity figures of CE CY Leung has slightly decreased from late November. His latest support rating is 41.8 marks, still below the warning line of 45. His approval rate now stands at 24%, disapproval rate 63%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 59.0 marks, her approval rate is 52%, disapproval rate 15%, giving a net popularity of positive 37 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 62.7 marks, approval rate 63%, disapproval rate 10%, thus a net popularity of positive 53 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 47.1 marks, approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 27%, giving a net popularity of positive 1 percentage point. In terms of popularity rating, John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, excluding the newly appointed Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, who has no prior record for time series analysis, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 3 among the other 12 Directors have gone up, while 8 have gone down and 1 remains unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan register significant changes in their net approval rates, down by 16 and 14 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Lau Kong-wah, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 28, 31 and 49 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 70 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang, Carrie Lam and Matthew Cheung fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Anthony Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Gregory So, Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen, Lau Kong-wah and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan, Nicholas Yang and Clement Cheung can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung and Eddie Ng fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (76%)

“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

FS John Tsang Chun-wah (63%); CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (52%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (51%)

“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (39%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (36%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (32%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (31%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (30%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (28%); Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (19%) [19] ; Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (19%) [19]

“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (34%, 46%); Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (23%, 44%); Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung Wan-ching (19%, 25%)

“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Leung Chun-ying (63%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (60%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

[19] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po are 18.8% and 18.6%.

Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, I reprint again the abstracts of two articles written by me before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”

Future Releases (Tentative)

• December 18, 2015 (Friday) 1pm to 2pm: First part of Macau annual survey 2015
• December 22, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity

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Everything carried in this website does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles and messages posted at the opinion platforms. Any responsibility, legal and otherwise, arising from any such item shall vest entirely with its author. The intellectual property of all information contained in this website, including questionnaire design and research reports, originally belongs to HKU POP unless specified otherwise. HKU POP opens their copyright to the world via this website, but would request all users to acknowledge their source properly.

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Last update :  26/6/2019