HKU POP releases findings on people’s feeling towards different governments and peoplesBack

Press Release on November 24, 2015

| Detailed Findings (Feeling towards different governments) |
| Detailed Findings (Feeling towards different peoples) |

Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via POP Site the raw data of all 84 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on Hong Kong citizens’ feeling towards different governments and peoples in November, by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards fellow Hong Kong people is 37 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 34 percentage points higher than that towards the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 21 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 7 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. It should be noted that the net value of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards fellow Hong Kong people has again dropped to its record low since this survey started in 2007, which is another indicator of society’s polarization. As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of Japan, Thailand, Russia, the United States and Malaysia whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. These findings are worth studying by various governments. Compared to 6 months ago, Hong Kong people’s net affinity for the governments of Germany and France, and the peoples of France and Russia are all at their new highs since 2007. As for reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level while the sampling error of net values need another calculation. The response rate of the second stage opinion survey is 65%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,008 successful interviews, not 1,008 x 66.4% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 64.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of various percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the survey findings on Hong Kong people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples. These surveys on governments are conducted at least once a year since 1997, while the surveys on peoples only began in 2007, this being the seventeenth time. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Sampling error of percentages^[6]

2-5/11/2015

(First stage naming survey)

1,008

66.4%

+/-3%

16-19/11/2015

(Second stage opinion survey)

1,004

64.8%

+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. For this survey, the sub-sample size of all questions has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have been reported in the statistical tables.

The research design of our survey on “people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. For many years, POP have selected 15 regions and countries that are best known to Hong Kong people, and conducted surveys to measure people’s feeling towards the governments of these places. Our primary objective was to map Hong Kong people’s cosmopolitan view over time. In 2007, we improved our research design. Our mid-2007 survey was divided into two stages, namely, a naming survey and an opinion survey. In the 2007 year-end survey, we further added the people module to the survey. In specific terms, in our naming survey, other than Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan and Macau, respondents can name, unaided, up to ten regions or countries which they know best. The four cross-strait regions together with 12 other regions and countries most frequently mentioned in the naming stage were then shortlisted into the second stage, with their governments and peoples rated by respondents as “very positive”, “quite positive”, “half-half”, “quite negative” or “very negative”. In our first stage survey conducted on November 2 to 5, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, France and Singapore were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Our second stage survey was conducted on November 16 to 19. The following table summarizes the findings of Hong Kong people’s feeling towards the governments and peoples of the four cross-strait regions.

Date of survey		27-30/5/14	24-27/11/14	29/5-2/6/15	*16-19/11/15*
Sample base		1,018	1,009	1,038	*1,004*
Overall response rate		66.1%	67.1%	66.5%	*64.8%*
Feeling towards different governments / peoples^[7]		Finding	Finding	Finding	*Base^[8]*	*Finding and error^[9]*	*Latest change^[10]*	*Net difference with gov’ts / peoples*
Hong Kong	People Positive	51%	49%	41%^[11]	*659*	*40+/-4%*	*-1%*	*+37%*
	People Negative	9%	11%	10%	*659*	*11+/-2%*	*+1%*
	Net value	43%	38%	30%^[11]	*659*	*29+/-5%*	*-1%*
	Government Positive	25%	32%^[11]	27%^[11]	*659*	*26+/-3%*	*-1%*	*-37%*
	Government Negative	37%	37%	36%	*659*	*34+/-4%*	*-2%*
	Net value	-12%	-5%	-8%	*659*	*-8+/-6%*	--
Mainland	People Positive	28%	31%	28%	*596*	*26+/-4%*	*-2%*	*+7%*
	People Negative	24%^[11]	25%	21%^[11]	*596*	*24+/-4%*	*+3%*
	Net value	4%^[11]	6%	7%	*596*	*2+/-6%*	*-5%*
	Government Positive	30%	29%	30%	*596*	*26+/-4%*	*-4%*	*-7%*
	Government Negative	33%	34%	31%	*596*	*31+/-4%*	--
	Net value	-3%	-5%	-1%	*596*	*-5+/-6%*	*-4%*
Taiwan	People Positive	63%^[11]	59%	62%	*664*	*59+/-4%*	*-3%*	*+34%*
	People Negative	3%	4%	3%	*664*	*4+/-1%*	*+1%*
	Net value	60%^[11]	55%	59%	*664*	*55+/-4%*	*-4%*
	Government Positive	32%	29%	33%	*664*	*31+/-4%*	*-2%*	*-34%*
	Government Negative	15%	16%	10%^[11]	*664*	*10+/-2%*	--
	Net value	17%	13%	23%^[11]	*664*	*21+/-5%*	*-2%*
Macau	People Positive	49%^[11]	51%	47%	*571*	*45+/-4%*	*-2%*	*+21%*
	People Negative	3%	2%	3%	*571*	*2+/-1%*	*-1%*
	Net value	46%^[11]	49%	44%^[11]	*571*	*44+/-4%*	--
	Government Positive	39%^[11]	45%^[11]	41%	*571*	*39+/-4%*	*-2%*	*-21%*
	Government Negative	17%^[11]	13%^[11]	13%	*571*	*16+/-3%*	*+3%*
	Net value	22%^[11]	32%^[11]	28%	*571*	*23+/-6%*	*-5%*

[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[8] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Comparison made with survey findings of 29/5-2/6/15.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Herewith the findings of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards the governments and peoples of 12 regions and countries other than the four cross-strait regions. They are ranked according to the net values of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards their people, in descending order:

Date of survey		27-30/5/14	24-27/11/14	29/5-2/6/15	*16-19/11/15*
Sample base		1,018	1,009	1,038	*1,004*
Overall response rate		66.1%	67.1%	66.5%	*64.8%*
Feeling towards different governments / peoples ^[12]		Finding	Finding	Finding	*Base^[13]*	*Finding and error^[14]*	*Latest change^[15]*	*Net difference with gov’ts / peoples*
Singapore	People Positive	65%^[16]	60%^[16]	61%	*601*	*62+/-4%*	*+1%*	*+12%*
	People Negative	2%	2%	2%	*601*	*2+/-1%*	--
	Net value	63%^[16]	58%^[16]	59%	*601*	*60+/-4%*	*+1%*
	Government Positive	62%^[16]	56%^[16]	55%	*601*	*56+/-4%*	*+1%*	*-12%*
	Government Negative	7%^[16]	5%	7%	*601*	*7+/-2%*	--
	Net value	55%^[16]	50%	49%	*601*	*48+/-5%*	*-1%*
Canada	People Positive	56%	49%^[16]	51%	*632*	*55+/-4%*	*+4%*	*+8%*
	People Negative	1%	2%	1%	*632*	*1+/-1%*	--
	Net value	54%	47%^[16]	50%	*632*	*54+/-4%*	*+4%*
	Government Positive	52%	45%^[16]	48%	*632*	*48+/-4%*	--	*-8%*
	Government Negative	3%	3%	1%	*632*	*2+/-1%*	*+1%*
	Net value	50%	42%^[16]	47%^[16]	*632*	*46+/-4%*	*-1%*
Australia	People Positive	50%^[16]	49%	44%^[16]	*638*	*50+/-4%*	*+6%^[16]*	*+7%*
	People Negative	2%	2%	3%	*638*	*2+/-1%*	*-1%*
	Net value	48%^[16]	46%	41%^[16]	*638*	*48+/-4%*	*+7%^[16]*
	Government Positive	42%	44%	39%^[16]	*638*	*44+/-4%*	*+5%^[16]*	*-7%*
	Government Negative	4%	2%	5%	*638*	*3+/-1%*	*-2%^[16]*
	Net value	38%	42%	35%^[16]	*638*	*41+/-4%*	*+6%^[16]*
United Kingdom	People Positive	49%	44%^[16]	42%	*605*	*50+/-4%*	*+8%^[16]*	*+15%*
	People Negative	4%	6%	4%	*605*	*3+/-1%*	*-1%*
	Net value	45%	38%^[16]	38%	*605*	*47+/-5%*	*+9%^[16]*
	Government Positive	45%^[16]	37%^[16]	36%	*605*	*41+/-4%*	*+5%^[16]*	*-15%*
	Government Negative	9%	19%^[16]	11%^[16]	*605*	*9+/-2%*	*-2%*
	Net value	35%	18%^[16]	25%^[16]	*605*	*32+/-5%*	*+7%^[16]*
Japan	People Positive	50%	53%	54%	*655*	*53+/-4%*	*-1%*	*+73%*
	People Negative	14%	10%^[16]	8%	*655*	*9+/-2%*	*+1%*
	Net value	36%	44%^[16]	47%	*655*	*44+/-5%*	*-3%*
	Government Positive	13%	15%	17%	*655*	*18+/-3%*	*+1%*	*-73%*
	Government Negative	57%^[16]	56%	48%^[16]	*655*	*47+/-4%*	*-1%*
	Net value	-44%	-41%	-31%^[16]	*655*	*-29+/-6%*	*+2%*
Germany	People Positive	38%	45%^[16]	37%^[16]	*595*	*45+/-4%*	*+8%^[16]*	*+2%*
	People Negative	2%	1%	2%	*595*	*1+/-1%*	*-1%*
	Net value	35%	44%^[16]	35%^[16]	*595*	*43+/-4%*	*+8%^[16]*
	Government Positive	34%^[16]	39%^[16]	34%^[16]	*595*	*43+/-4%*	*+9%^[16]*	*-2%*
	Government Negative	4%	3%	2%	*595*	*2+/-1%*	--
	Net value	30%^[16]	36%^[16]	32%	*595*	*41+/-4%*	*+9%^[16]*
South Korea	People Positive	50%	52%	42%^[16]	*619*	*45+/-4%*	*+3%*	*+8%*
	People Negative	8%	6%	8%	*619*	*7+/-2%*	*-1%*
	Net value	43%	46%	34%^[16]	*619*	*38+/-5%*	*+4%*
	Government Positive	38%^[16]	46%^[16]	32%^[16]	*619*	*41+/-4%*	*+9%^[16]*	*-8%*
	Government Negative	13%^[16]	7%^[16]	10%	*619*	*10+/-2%*	--
	Net value	25%^[16]	39%^[16]	22%^[16]	*619*	*30+/-5%*	*+8%^[16]*
France	People Positive	35%	28%^[16]	29%	*596*	*38+/-4%*	*+9%^[16]*	*+11%*
	People Negative	5%	6%	4%	*596*	*3+/-1%*	*-1%*
	Net value	31%^[16]	23%^[16]	25%	*596*	*35+/-4%*	*+10%^[16]*
	Government Positive	24%	19%^[16]	18%	*596*	*29+/-4%*	*+11%^[16]*	*-11%*
	Government Negative	6%^[16]	6%	6%	*596*	*6+/-2%*	--
	Net value	17%^[16]	13%	12%	*596*	*23+/-4%*	*+11%^[16]*
USA	People Positive	41%	40%	37%	*624*	*41+/-4%*	*+4%*	*+43%*
	People Negative	7%	9%	8%	*624*	*6+/-2%*	*-2%*
	Net value	34%	31%	29%	*624*	*34+/-5%*	*+5%*
	Government Positive	18%^[16]	21%	19%	*624*	*24+/-3%*	*+5%^[16]*	*-43%*
	Government Negative	39%	34%^[16]	36%	*624*	*33+/-4%*	*-3%*
	Net value	-21%^[16]	-13%^[16]	-16%	*624*	*-8+/-6%*	*+8%^[16]*
Thailand	People Positive	33%	38%^[16]	38%	*663*	*41+/-4%*	*+3%*	*+45%*
	People Negative	17%^[16]	11%^[16]	10%	*663*	*10+/-2%*	--
	Net value	17%^[16]	26%^[16]	28%	*663*	*31+/-5%*	*+3%*
	Government Positive	11%^[16]	16%^[16]	13%	*663*	*16+/-3%*	*+3%*	*-45%*
	Government Negative	52%^[16]	38%^[16]	35%	*663*	*30+/-4%*	*-5%^[16]*
	Net value	-41%^[16]	-22%^[16]	-21%	*663*	*-14+/-5%*	*+7%^[16]*
Malaysia	People Positive	--	--	--	*631*	*35+/-4%*	--	*+30%*
	People Negative	--	--	--	*631*	*6+/-2%*	--
	Net value	--	--	--	*631*	*29+/-5%*	--
	Government Positive	--	--	--	*631*	*21+/-3%*	--	*-30%*
	Government Negative	--	--	--	*631*	*22+/-3%*	--
	Net value	--	--	--	*631*	*-1+/-5%*	--
Russia	People Positive	25%	26%	22%^[16]	*661*	*28+/-3%*	*+6%^[16]*	*+32%*
	People Negative	9%	6%^[16]	5%	*661*	*5+/-2%*	--
	Net value	16%	20%	17%	*661*	*23+/-4%*	*+6%^[16]*
	Government Positive	20%	19%	16%	*661*	*17+/-3%*	*+1%*	*-32%*
	Government Negative	28%	31%	25%^[16]	*661*	*26+/-3%*	*+1%*
	Net value	-8%	-12%	-10%	*661*	*-9+/-5%*	*+1%*

[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[13] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Comparison made with survey findings of 29/5-2/6/15.
[16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Our latest findings showed that, as regards the results of people’s feeling towards different peoples, 40% felt positive towards Hong Kong people themselves while the net value is positive 29 percentage points. For the other cross-strait regions, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau peoples were 26%, 59% and 45% while their net values are positive 2, positive 55 and positive 44 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on peoples of other regions and countries, the net values for Singapore, Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom were highest, with positive 60, positive 54, positive 48 and positive 47 percentage points respectively, while those for Japan, Germany, South Korea, France, the United States and Thailand were positive 44, positive 43, positive 38, positive 35, positive 34 and positive 31 percentage points correspondingly. Lastly, the net value of feeling towards the people of Malaysia and Russia are positive 29 and positive 23 percentage points only.

Regarding the results of people’s feeling towards different governments, 26% felt positive towards the HKSAR government while the net value is negative 8 percentage points. For the other cross-strait governments, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau governments were 26%, 31% and 39% while their net values are negative 5, positive 21 and positive 23 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on other governments, the net values for Singapore, Canada, Germany and Australia were the highest, with positive 48, positive 46, positive 41 and positive 41 percentage points correspondingly, while those for the United Kingdom, South Korea and France were positive 32, positive 30 and positive 23 percentage points correspondingly, those for Malaysia, the United States, Russia, Thailand and Japan were negative 1, negative 8, negative 9, negative 14 and negative 29 percentage points correspondingly.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from May 29 to June 2, 2015 while this survey was conducted from November 16 to 19, 2015. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

17/11/15	Hong Kong draws tie with China in the World Cup Asian qualifying match.
14/11/15	Paris is hit by coordinated terror attacks at six locations.
29/10/15	China ends one-child policy and allows all couples to have two children.
27/10/15	U.S. guided-missile destroyer sails near the Spratly Islands.
21/9/15	Xi Jinping embarks on his state visit to the United States.
2/9/15	Events are held to commemorate the 70th anniversary of Japan’s surrender in WWII.
22/8/15	Tension on the Korean peninsula is escalated.
17/8/15	Bomb exploded around Erawan Shrine in Bangkok, Thailand. Two Hongkongers were killed.
31/7/15	Beijing succeeds in applying to host the 2022 Winter Olympic.
6/7/15	Bailout conditions are rejected in the Greek bailout referendum.
1/7/15	The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress passes a national security law.
29/5/15	18 people are quarantined after the South Korean man is confirmed to have contracted MERS.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of Public Opinion Programme, Frank Lee.

Our latest survey shows that, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards fellow Hong Kong people is 37 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 34 percentage points higher than that towards the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 21 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 7 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. It should be noted that the net value of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards fellow Hong Kong people has again dropped to its record low since this survey started in 2007, which is another indicator of society’s polarization. As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of Japan, Thailand, Russia, the United States and Malaysia whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. These findings are worth studying by various governments. Compared to 6 months ago, Hong Kong people’s net affinity for the governments of Germany and France, and the peoples of France and Russia are all at their new highs since 2007. As for reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design.

Future Release (Tentative)

December 1, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government