HKU POP releases findings of District Council pre-election surveyBack
Press Release on November 19, 2015
| Detailed Findings (2015 District Council Election Feature Page) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 84 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,052 Hong Kong registered voters between October 29 and 4 November 2015 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that, regarding this Sunday’s District Council election, 71% of the registered voters interviewed intend to vote, up 5 percentage points significantly as compared to the same survey in 2011. On the other hand, the percentage of those who have made up their mind on how to vote has decreased, to only 30%. This means that the turnout rate in the coming election may be higher, but the effect of loyal voters may weaken. As for the main factors affecting candidate choice, 41% said political platform and alignment are most important, 33% said past performance, both dropped significantly from 2011. People continue to value the candidate’s political background, which may be related to the recent political environment. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The effective response rate of the survey is 65%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,052 successful interviews, not 1,052 x 65.4% effective response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “ sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the figures collected in 2015 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the
totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but
when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS).
If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest findings of District Council pre-election survey. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Effective response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
29/10-4/11/2015 |
1,052 |
65.4% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
Whenever there are large-scale elections, POP would conduct regular surveys to track opinion changes. Major findings regarding registered voters are summarized below, together with parallel figures obtained in previous District Council elections.
|
2003 |
2007 |
2011 |
2015 |
cf. similar survey 2011 |
|||||||
|
Date of survey |
15-17/9 |
19-22/10 |
3-6/11 |
15-19/11 |
17-21/9 |
22-25/10 |
5-9/11 |
12-15/11 |
26/10-1/11 |
29/10-4/11/15 |
|
|
Sample base (registered voters) |
714 |
725 |
721 |
1,157 |
761 |
801 |
859 |
877 |
500 |
1,052 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
70.1% |
60.0% |
60.7% |
65.1% |
65.5% |
67.4% |
66.3% |
79.0% |
69.9% |
65.4% |
-- |
|
Maximum sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)[7] |
+/-4% |
+/-4% |
+/-4% |
+/-3% |
+/-4% |
+/-4% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-4% |
+/-3% |
-- |
|
Finding for each question/ Sampling error[7] |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and Error |
-- |
|
Proportion of voters who planned to vote in DC Election |
67% |
70% |
75% |
74% |
75% |
73% |
76% |
76% |
66% |
71+/-3% |
+5% [8] |
|
Have decided which candidate to vote for |
-- |
-- |
33% |
37% |
-- |
-- |
38% |
47% |
37% |
30+/-3% |
-7 % [8] |
|
Knew which political camps are running for the election at local district[9] |
-- |
-- |
71% |
75% |
-- |
-- |
76% |
80% |
80% |
73+/-3 % |
-7% [8] |
|
Main factor: platform and political alignment |
44% |
36% |
36% |
35% |
42% |
45% |
41% |
36% |
47% |
41+/-3% |
-6 % [8] |
|
Main factor: past performance |
40% |
43% |
46% |
47% |
43% |
43% |
49% |
50% |
40% |
33+/-3% |
-7% [8] |
|
Main factor: personal background and performance during election |
8% |
7% |
3% |
3% |
13% |
6% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
6 +/- 1 % |
+2% [8] |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] Only ask registered voters who have decided to vote. The sub-sample size between 3 and 6 November 2003 was 537, while that between 15 and 19 November 2003 was 821, that between 5 and 9 November 2007 was 652, that between 12 and 15 November 2007 was 662, that between 26 October and 1 November 2011 was 328, and that between 29 October and 4 November 2015 was 744.
Among the registered voters interviewed, 71% said they intended to vote. (However, please note that 71% intention to vote may not convert into 71% turnout). 30% of the registered voters have already decided which candidate to vote for. Meanwhile, 73% of the registered voters said they knew which political camps are running for the election at local district. Regarding the main factor for choosing the candidate, 41% registered voters opted for a candidate’s platform and political alignment to be most important. 33% considered a candidate's past performance, while 6% considered a candidate’s personal background and performance during election to be most important.
Commentary
Frank Lee, Research Manager of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our survey conducted about two weeks ago shows that, regarding this Sunday’s District Council election, 71% of the registered voters interviewed intend to vote, up 5 percentage points significantly as compared to the same survey in 2011. On the other hand, the percentage of those who have made up their mind on how to vote has decreased, to only 30%. This means that the turnout rate in the coming election may be higher, but the effect of loyal voters may weaken. As for the main factors affecting candidate choice, 41% said political platform and alignment are most important, 33% said past performance, both dropped significantly from 2011. People continue to value the candidate’s political background, which may be related to the recent political environment.”
Additional information: About District Council pre-election surveys
Whenever there are large-scale elections, HKUPOP will conduct various surveys to track opinion changes. The research team will also conduct exit polls on election day to study voter behaviour and motivation. Since the handover, the research team has conducted different surveys for District Council elections (1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011), including pre-election surveys, exit polls and so on.
As usual, the questions asked in our “District Council pre-election” include: “Are you a registered voter?”, “Do you plan to vote in the District Council election this November?”, “Which political camp do you incline to identify yourself with?”, “What is your main consideration in selecting a candidate?”, “Have you decided to vote for which candidate?”, “Do you know which political camps are running for the election at your district?” and “If XXX, YYY, ZZZ, etc, other political parties and some independent candidates are sending their members to run for candidacy at your living district, which political party or independent candidate do you incline to support?”
Future Release (Tentative)
- November 24, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s feelings towards different governments and peoples
