HKU POP releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack

 

Press Release on October 20, 2015

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Top Ten Legislative Councillors) |


Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 82 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.


Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on the ratings of Legislative Councillors in October, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The latest survey of top 10 Legislative Councillors shows that compared to three months ago, in terms of familiarity, the 10 most well-known councilors are exactly the same as those of last time. In terms of absolute ratings, the scores of 7 out of 10 have gone up, 3 have gone down. Among them, the rises in Lee Cheuk-yan, James Tien, Leung Kwok-hung and Emily Lau’s ratings and the drop in Wong Yuk-man’s rating have gone beyond sampling errors. In terms of relative rankings, Jasper Tsang continues to top the list, now for 11 consecutive times since April 2013. James Tien, Michael Tien, Regina Ip, Alan Leong and Emily Lau continue to rank second to sixth. Lee Cheuk-yan and Albert Ho switch positions to rank seventh and eighth, while Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man switch positions to rank ninth and tenth. It should be noted that our list of “top 10” only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 60 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the “top 10” list by design. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.7 and +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the rating survey is 65%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,003 successful interviews, not 1,003 x 64.4% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 65.0% response rate.

[3] The maximum sampling errors of various ratings are not more than +/-2.5. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling errors of various ratings not more than +/-2.5, at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.


Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of the top ten Legislative Councillors. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings [6]

5-8/10/2015 (First stage naming survey)

1,003

64.4%

+/-3%

12-17/10/2015 (Second stage rating survey)

1,006

65.0%

+/-2.5

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.


The research design of our “Top 10 Legislative Councillors” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from October 5 to 8. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. As a result, Leung Kwok-hung, Emily Lau, Wong Yuk-man, Alan Leong and Jasper Tsang were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted from October 12 to 17, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:

Date of survey

13-16/10/14

19-21/1/15

13-16/4/15

13-16/7/15

12-17/10/15

Latest Change

Sample base[7]

572-624

546-644

551-599

567-683

554-664

--

Overall response rate

65.9%

65.2%

69.1%

67.2%

65.0%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error [7]

--

Jasper Tsang

58.5{1}

62.0{1}[8]

63.4{1}

61.3{1}[8]

62.6+/-1.7{1}

+ 1.3

James Tien

--

--

--

55.3{2}

58.1+/-1.7{2}

+ 2.8 [8]

Michael Tien

--

--

53.5{2}

54.3{3}

53.2+/-1.8{3}

-1.1

Regina Ip

44.6{4}[8]

46.3{2}

49.0{3}[8]

51.0{4}

50.3+/-2.1{4}

-0.7

Alan Leong

44.8{3}[8]

42.4{4}

46.0{4}[8]

46.8{5}

47.5+/-2.5{5}

+ 0.7

Emily Lau

43.3{6}[8] [10]

40.4{5}[8]

44.9{5}[8]

44.8{6}

47.1+/-2.2{6}

+ 2.3 [8]

Lee Cheuk-yan

43.3{5}[8] [10]

39.1{7}[8]

42.6{6}

41.4{8}

45.6+/-2.2{7}

+ 4.2 [8]

Albert Ho

40.0{7}[8]

39.2{6}

40.5{7}

42.0{7}

42.2+/-2.1{8}

+ 0.2

Leung Kwok-hung

39.9{8}

37.2{8}[8]

37.1{9}

35.6{10}

38.3+/-2.5{9}

+ 2.7 [8]

Wong Yuk-man

34.3{10}

32.8{10}

35.6{10}[8]

38.7{9}[8]

35.4+/-2.3{10}

-3.3 [8]

Starry Lee

--

42.9[9]

45.1 [9]

--

45.4+/-2.3[9]

--

Tam Yiu-chung

43.4[9]

44.1{3}

45.2 [9]

46.2 [9]

44.0+/-2.2[9]

-2.2

Albert Chan

36.5{9}

34.4{9}

38.8{8}[8]

36.8 [9]

--

--

Chiang Lai-wan

--

33.8[9]

--

--

--

--

James To

50.1{2}

--

--

--

--

--

Cyd Ho

45.9[9]

--

--

--

--

--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. Starting from 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, with variable sub-sample size for each question. In latest survey, the sub-sample size of the questions varies between 554 and 664, and its effect has already been reflected in the sampling errors.

[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[9] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not counted.


The latest survey showed that Jasper Tsang was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 62.6 marks. James Tien, Michael Tien and Regina Ip ranked the 2nd to 4th with 58.1, 53.2 and 50.3 marks correspondingly. The 5th to 8th ranks went to Alan Leong, Emily Lau, Lee Cheuk-yan and Albert Ho who attained 47.5, 47.1, 45.6 and 42.2 marks respectively. Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man ranked the 9th to 10th, attaining 38.3 and 35.4 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 54.3 marks, while that for the top 10 was 48.0 marks. For this latest survey, Starry Lee and Tam Yiu-chung obtained support ratings of 45.4 and 44.0 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey

19-21/1/15

13-16/4/15

13-16/7/15

12-17/10/15

No. of times on top 10

Average rating [10]

Overall ranking [11]

Jasper Tsang

62.0

63.4

61.3

62.6

4

62.3

1

Regina Ip

46.3

49.0

51.0

50.3

4

49.1

2

Alan Leong

42.4

46.0

46.8

47.5

4

45.7

3

Emily Lau

40.4

44.9

44.8

47.1

4

44.3

4

Lee Cheuk-yan

39.1

42.6

41.4

45.6

4

42.2

5

Albert Ho

39.2

40.5

42.0

42.2

4

41.0

6

Leung Kwok-hung

37.2

37.1

35.6

38.3

4

37.1

7

Wong Yuk-man

32.8

35.6

38.7

35.4

4

35.6

8

Michael Tien

--

53.5

54.3

53.2

3

53.6

9

James Tien

--

--

55.3

58.1

2

56.7

10

Albert Chan

34.4

38.8

--

--

2

36.6

11

Tam Yiu-chung

44.1

--

--

--

1

44.1

12

[10] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.

[11] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.


The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that 8 Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Jasper Tsang at the top rank achieving an average rating of 62.3 marks, Regina Ip, Alan Leong, Emily Lau, Lee Cheuk-yan, Albert Ho, Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man ranked the 2nd to 8th and attained 49.1, 45.7, 44.3, 42.2, 41.0, 37.1 and 35.6 marks correspondingly. Michael Tien has been on the list three times and ranked the 9th with 53.6 marks. James Tien and Albert Chan have been on the list twice and ranked the 10th and 11th with 56.7 and 36.6 marks respectively. Tam Yiu-chung has been on the list once and ranked the 12th, with 44.1 marks.


Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from July 13 to 16, 2015, while this survey was conducted from October 12 to 17, 2015. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

15/10/15

Seven police officers and Tsang Kin chiu are prosecuted on the same day.

10/10/15

Commission on Poverty announces 960,000 Hong Kong people are living in poverty, falls to a six-year low.

5/10/15

Former chief executive Donald Tsang is charged with misconduct in public office.

30/9/15

The Council of The University of Hong Kong rejects Johannes Chan’s appointment as Pro-Vice-Chancellor.

20/9/15

Chen Zuoer states that after returning to China, Hong Kong is under “de-sinofication” while fails to carry out “de-colonisation”.

12/9/15

Zhang Xiaoming says Chief Executive’s authority is above the executive, legislative and judicial institutions.

31/7/15

Yuen Kwok-yung resigns as staff representative of the Hong Kong University Council.

28/7/15

Students of The University of Hong Kong burst into the University Council’s pro vice chancellor appointment meeting.

24/7/15

Zhang Dejiang meets Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong.

21/7/15

Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok Wai and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak Sing step down from their positions.


Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “The latest survey of top 10 Legislative Councillors shows that compared to three months ago, in terms of familiarity, the 10 most well-known councilors are exactly the same as those of last time. In terms of absolute ratings, the scores of 7 out of 10 have gone up, 3 have gone down. Among them, the rises in Lee Cheuk-yan, James Tien, Leung Kwok-hung and Emily Lau’s ratings and the drop in Wong Yuk-man’s rating have gone beyond sampling errors. In terms of relative rankings, Jasper Tsang continues to top the list, now for 11 consecutive times since April 2013. James Tien, Michael Tien, Regina Ip, Alan Leong and Emily Lau continue to rank second to sixth. Lee Cheuk-yan and Albert Ho switch positions to rank seventh and eighth, while Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man switch positions to rank ninth and tenth. It should be noted that our list of ‘top 10’ only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 60 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the ‘top 10’ list by design. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of these popularity ratings using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page.”


Future Release (Tentative)

October 27, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government