HKU POP releases the latest trust and confidence indicators Back
Press Release on September 22, 2015
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Taiwan Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 80 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong people between 9 and 17 September 2015 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Hong Kong people’s trust in the local, central and Taiwan governments have all dropped, but all within sample errors. The net trust of the three governments now stand at positive 2, negative 9 and negative 9 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, people’s net confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and “one country, two systems” have all plunged, by 12 to 22 percentage points, after their rebounds three months ago. They now stand at negative 6, positive 26 and negative 7 percentage points, and people’s confidence in Hong Kong’s future has even dropped to record low since April 2003. Further analysis shows the younger the respondent, the more one distrusts the central government and the less confident in “one country, two systems”. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of net values needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 65.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8%”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people’s trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong’s future, China’s future and “one country, two systems”. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
9-17/9/2015 |
1,006 |
65.1% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments and people’s confidence in the future as well as “one country, two systems” are summarized below:
|
Date of survey |
4-11/9/14 |
15-18/12/14 |
9-12/3/15 |
15-18/6/15 |
9-17/9/15 |
Latest change |
|
Total sample size[7] |
1,000 |
1,014 |
1,024 |
1,003 |
1,006 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
63.8% |
67.3% |
68.6% |
65.6% |
65.1% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [8] |
-- |
|
Trust in HKSAR Government[9] |
36%[10] |
37% |
37% |
38% |
38+/-4% |
-- |
|
Distrust in HKSAR Government[9] |
43%[10] |
35%[10] |
37% |
35% |
37+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Net trust |
-7%[10] |
2%[10] |
0% |
3% |
2+/-7% |
-1% |
|
Mean value[9] |
2.8 [10] (Base=547) |
2.9 (Base=622) |
2.9 (Base=615) |
3.0 (Base=651) |
2.9+/-0.1 (Base= 632 ) |
-0.1 |
|
Trust in Beijing Government[9] |
30% |
33% |
33% |
36% |
36+/-4% |
-- |
|
Distrust in Beijing Government[9] |
52%[10] |
41%[10] |
42% |
42% |
44+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Net trust |
-22%[10] |
-8%[10] |
-9% |
-6% |
-9+/-7% |
-3% |
|
Mean value[9] |
2.5 [10] (Base=533) |
2.8[10] (Base=550) |
2.8 (Base=604) |
2.8 (Base=558) |
2.8+/-0.1 (Base= 570 ) |
-- |
|
Trust in Taiwan Government[9] |
21% |
22% |
26% |
21%[10] |
22 +/-4% |
+1% |
|
Distrust in Taiwan Government[9] |
38%[10] |
28%[10] |
23%[10] |
24% |
31+/-4% |
+7% [10] |
|
Net trust |
-17% |
-6%[10] |
4%[10] |
-4%[10] |
-9+/-6% |
-5% |
|
Mean value[9] |
2.7 (Base=465) |
2.8 (Base=473) |
3.0[10] (Base=466) |
2.9 (Base=415) |
2.8+/-0.1 (Base= 399 ) |
-0.1 |
|
Confidence in HK’s future |
43%[10] |
49%[10] |
45% |
49% |
44+/-4% |
-5% [10] |
|
No-confidence in HK’s future |
48%[10] |
43%[10] |
48%[10] |
43%[10] |
50+/-4% |
+7% [10] |
|
Net confidence |
-4%[10] |
6%[10] |
-3%[10] |
6%[10] |
-6+/-8% |
-12% [10] |
|
Confidence in China’s future |
56%[10] |
65%[10] |
61% |
71%[10] |
58+/-4% |
-13% [10] |
|
No-confidence in China’s future |
34%[10] |
29%[10] |
31% |
23%[10] |
32+/-4% |
+9% [10] |
|
Net confidence |
22%[10] |
36%[10] |
30% |
48%[10] |
26+/-8% |
-22% [10] |
|
Confidence in “one country, two systems” |
38%[10] |
46%[10] |
43% |
52%[10] |
43+/-4% |
-9% [10] |
|
No-confidence in “one country, two systems” |
56%[10] |
47%[10] |
52%[10] |
43%[10] |
50+/-4% |
+7% [10] |
|
Net confidence |
-19%[10] |
-2%[10] |
-9% |
9%[10] |
-7+/-8% |
-16% [10] |
[7] Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 547 to 639, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Latest survey revealed that 38% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 36% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 22% trusted the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are positive 2, negative 9 and negative 9 percentage points, while the mean scores of these trust indicators are 2.9, 2.8 and 2.8 respectively, meaning close to “half-half” in general. On the other hand, 44% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong’s future, 58% had confidence in China’s future, while 43% of the respondents were confident in “one country, two systems”. The three net confidence values are negative 6, positive 26 and negative 7 percentage points respectively.
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or above. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ trust in Beijing Central Government and confidence in “one country, two systems” by age:
|
Date of survey：9-17/9/2015 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall Sample |
|
|
Percentage of trust / distrust in Beijing Central Government[11] |
Trust |
12+/-6% (13) |
37+/-7% (72) |
44+/-6% (121) |
36+/-4% (206) |
|
Half-half |
14+/-7% (15) |
20+/-6% (39) |
15+/-4% (43) |
17+/-3% (97) |
|
|
Distrust |
73+/-9% (79) |
42+/-7% (82) |
34+/-6% (95) |
44+/-4% (255) |
|
|
Don't know / hard to say |
0+/-0% (0) |
1+/-1% (2) |
6+/-3% (18) |
3+/-2% (20) |
|
|
Total |
100% (107) |
100% (195) |
100% (276) |
100% (578) |
|
|
Mean value |
2.0+/-0.2 (Base=107) |
2.8+/-0.2 (Base =193) |
3.1+/-0.2 (Base =258) |
2.8+/-0.1 (Base =559) |
|
[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
|
Date of survey：9-17/9/2015 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall Sample |
|
|
Percentage of confidence / no-confidence in “one country, two systems” [12] |
Confidence |
27+/-9% (28) |
41+/-7% (86) |
52+/-6% (132) |
43+/-4% (245) |
|
No-confidence |
67+/-9% (69) |
53+/-7% (111) |
40+/-6% (102) |
50+/-4% (282) |
|
|
Don't know / hard to say |
6+/-5% (6) |
6+/-3% (13) |
8+/-3% (19) |
7+/-2% (38) |
|
|
Total |
100% (103) |
100% (209) |
100% (253) |
100% (565) |
|
[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from June 15 to 18, 2015 while this survey was conducted from September 9 to 17, 2015. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
12/9/15 |
Zhang Xiaoming says Chief Executive’s authority is above the executive, legislative and judicial institutions. |
|
6/9/15 |
Protest against parallel traders in Sheung Shui. |
|
3/9/15 |
Xi Jinping announces a 300,000 troop reduction at the parade to commemorate Japan’s surrender in WWII. |
|
13/8/15 |
Huge explosions in Tianjin warehouse containing hazardous chemical materials. |
|
31/7/15 |
Beijing succeeds in applying to host the 2022 Winter Olympic. |
|
24/7/15 |
Zhang Dejiang meets Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong. |
|
21/7/15 |
Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok Wai and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak Sing step down from their positions. |
|
4/7/15 |
The Hong Kong Garrison of the People’s Liberation Army stages a military exercise in Tuen Mun. |
|
1/7/15 |
The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress passes a national security law. |
|
30/6/15 |
The latest estimate of high-speed railway surges to HK$85.3 billion, which is 31.2% above the original budget. |
|
28/6/15 |
More than 500 injuries in Taiwan party dust explosion, 5 injured Hong Kong people sent to hospital. |
|
25/6/15 |
WhatsApp messages of a pro-establishment camp chat group leak. |
|
18/6/15 |
The political reform package is vetoed. |
Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programpreme, observed, “Compared to three months ago, our latest survey completed in mid-September shows that Hong Kong people’s trust in the local, central and Taiwan governments have all dropped, but all within sample errors. The net trust of the three governments now stand at positive 2, negative 9 and negative 9 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, people’s net confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and ‘one country, two systems’ have all plunged, by 12 to 22 percentage points, after their rebounds three months ago. They now stand at negative 6, positive 26 and negative 7 percentage points, and people’s confidence in Hong Kong’s future has even dropped to record low since April 2003. Further analysis shows the younger the respondent, the more one distrusts the central government and the less confident in ‘one country, two systems’. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”
Future Release (Tentative)
September 29, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government
