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Press Release on September 15, 2015

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying) | Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |

Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 79 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 80th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,011 Hong Kong people between 7 and 10 September, 2015 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted in early September shows that the popularity figures of CE CY Leung have significantly recovered, after dropping in late August to record low since he became CE. His latest support rating is 41.4, which is still below the warning line of 45. His approval rate now stands at 25%, disapproval rate 59%, giving a net popularity of negative 34 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 56.9 marks, her approval rate is 53%, disapproval rate 15%, giving a net popularity of positive 37 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 61.7 marks, approval rate 59%, disapproval rate 9%, thus a net popularity of positive 50 percentage points, which is record high since March 2008. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 46.6 marks, approval rate 31%, disapproval rate 29%, giving a net popularity of positive 2 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating, John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 7 among 12 Directors have gone up while 5 have gone down. Among them, only Secretary for Education Eddie Ng registers significant change in his net approval rate, down by 9 percentage points. Among all the Directors, only Lau Kong-wah, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 22, 33 and 36 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 71 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang and Carrie Lam fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Anthony Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Raymond Tam, Gregory So, Rimsky Yuen, Wong Kam-sing and Lau Kong-wah can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Clement Cheung can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, Director of POP, Robert Chung, again reprints the abstracts of two articles written by him before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,011 successful interviews, not 1,011 x 64.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.

[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.

[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2015 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	22-25/6/15	6-10/7/15	20-23/7/15	3-6/8/15	21-27/8/15	7-10/9/15	Latest change
Sample base	1,038	1,009	1,010	1,002	1,005	1,011	--
Overall response rate	67.4%	65.7%	66.4%	64.9%	65.1%	64.9%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error [8]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	44.1	45.4	43.9	39.2[9]	38.5	41.4+/-1.9	+2.9[9]
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	27%[9]	26%	25%	21%[9]	22%	25+/-3%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	56%	57%	59%	60%	62%	59+/-3%	-3%
Net approval rate	-29%[9]	-31%	-34%	-39%	-39%	-34+/-5%	+5%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	4-7/5/15	3-9/6/15	6-10/7/15	3-6/8/15	7-10/9/15	Latest change
Sample base[10]	556-589	537-605	579-686	564-667	551-603	--
Overall response rate	66.2%	63.9%	65.7%	64.9%	64.9%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error [11]	--
Rating of CS Carrie Lam	57.4	55.4	57.2	56.3	56.9+/-2.1	+0.6
Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam	54%[12]	54%	49%[12]	49%	53+/-4%	+4%
Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam	17%	21%	16%[12]	13%	15+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate	37%	33%	33%	36%	37+/-6%	+1%
Rating of FS John Tsang	58.2[12]	59.0	60.1	60.6	61.7+/-1.8	+1.1
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang	49%[12]	57%[12]	56%	60%	59+/-4%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang	13%	13%	9%[12]	11%	9+/-2%	-2%
Net approval rate	36%[12]	44%[12]	48%	49%	50+/-6%	+1%
Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen	50.1	49.8	49.6	47.4	46.6+/-2.2	-0.8
Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen	35%[12]	36%	31%[12]	32%	31+/-4%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen	22%[12]	25%	23%	22%	29+/-4%	+7%[12]
Net approval rate	13%[12]	10%	8%	9%	2+/-6%	-7%[12]

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

Date of survey	6-10/7/15		3-6/8/15		7-10/9/15		Latest change
Sample base [13]	589-628		577-631		570-618		--
Overall response rate	65.7%		64.9%		64.9%		--
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer	Base	%	Base	%	Base	% & error [14]	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man	620	73%	631	74%	593	79+/-3%	+5%[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man	620	8%	631	7%	593	7+/-2%	--
Net approval rate	620	65%	631	67%	593	71+/-5%	+4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	625	49%	624	47%	595	49+/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	625	15%	624	16%	595	14+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	625	34%	624	31%	595	35+/-6%	+4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	611	41%	583	41%	593	42+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	611	10%	583	9%	593	9+/-2%	--
Net approval rate	611	32%	583	32%	593	33+/-5%	+1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung	595	38%[15]	589	35%	570	40+/-4%	+5%[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung	595	23%[15]	589	18%[15]	570	21+/-3%	+3%
Net approval rate	595	15%[15]	589	17%	570	19+/-6%	+2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung[16]	--	--	611	19%	592	22+/-4%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung[16]	--	--	611	8%	592	7+/-2%	-1%
Net approval rate	--	--	611	12%	592	15+/-4%[18]	+3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok	589	41%[15]	591	37%	595	39+/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok	589	26%	591	28%	595	25+/-4%	-3%
Net approval rate	589	14%	591	9%	595	15+/-7%[18]	+6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam	591	31%	605	31%	597	34+/-4%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam	591	24%	605	21%	597	20+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	591	7%	605	10%	597	14+/-6%	+4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	628	32%	589	34%	605	31+/-4%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	628	20%	589	21%	605	23+/-4%	+2%
Net approval rate	628	12%	589	13%	605	8+/-6%	-5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	590	32%[15]	586	31%	577	33+/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	590	23%[15]	586	26%	577	29+/-4%	+3%
Net approval rate	590	9%[15]	586	6%	577	4+/-7%	-2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah[17]	--	--	577	23%	618	21+/-3%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah[17]	--	--	577	42%	618	43+/-4%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	--	577	-19%	618	-22+/-6%	-3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan	609	21%[15]	601	17%[15]	587	17+/-3%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan	609	46%[15]	601	48%	587	50+/-4%	+2%
Net approval rate	609	-25%[15]	601	-31%	587	-33+/-6%	-2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng	600	20%	599	18%	603	17+/-3%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng	600	46%[15]	599	45%	603	53+/-4%	+8%[15]
Net approval rate	600	-26%[15]	599	-27%	603	-36+/-6%	-9%[15]

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.

[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[16] The government announced the appointment of Clement Cheung as the new Secretary for the Civil Service on July 21, 2015.

[17] The government announced the appointment of Lau Kong-wah as the new Secretary for Home Affairs on July 21, 2015.

[18] Based on the figures of latest survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung and Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok are 15.5 and 14.6 percentage points. Thus, they are ranked fifth and sixth this time.

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 41.4 marks, and 25% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 34 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 56.9, 61.7 and 46.6 marks, and 53%, 59% and 31% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 37, positive 50 and positive 2 percentage points respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 71 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan with net approval rates of positive 35 and positive 33 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for Development Paul Chan and Secretary for Education Eddie Ng ranked 4th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 19, positive 15, positive 15, positive 14, positive 8, positive 4, negative 22, negative 33 and negative 36 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 3 to 6 August, 2015 while this survey was conducted from 7 to 10 September, 2015. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

10/9/15	ATV sells the controlling stake to China Culture Media International.
6/9/15	Protest against parallel traders in Sheung Shui.
4/9/15	The Nikkei Hong Kong Purchasing Managers' Index fell to an over-six-year-low in August.
2/9/15	Events are held to commemorate the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender in WWII.
26/8/15	Part of patient's lung was removed as a result of an inaccurate diagnosis for cancer by Pamela Youde Hospital.
17/8/15	Bomb exploded around Erawan Shrine in Bangkok, Thailand. Two Hongkongers were killed.
10/8/15	A veteran singer is cheated out of $20 million in a telephone scam.
8/8/15	Record-breaking high temperature of 36.3 degree Celsius is recorded in urban areas in Hong Kong.
3/8/15	Furniture retailer DSC shuts down, leaving wages and severance payments of around 500 employees unsettled.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.

Our latest survey conducted in early September shows that the popularity figures of CE CY Leung have significantly recovered, after dropping in late August to record low since he became CE. His latest support rating is 41.4, which is still below the warning line of 45. His approval rate now stands at 25%, disapproval rate 59%, giving a net popularity of negative 34 percentage points.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 56.9 marks, her approval rate is 53%, disapproval rate 15%, giving a net popularity of positive 37 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 61.7 marks, approval rate 59%, disapproval rate 9%, thus a net popularity of positive 50 percentage points, which is record high since March 2008. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 46.6 marks, approval rate 31%, disapproval rate 29%, giving a net popularity of positive 2 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating, John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 7 among 12 Directors have gone up while 5 have gone down. Among them, only Secretary for Education Eddie Ng registers significant change in his net approval rate, down by 9 percentage points. Among all the Directors, only Lau Kong-wah, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 22, 33 and 36 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 71 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang and Carrie Lam fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Anthony Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Raymond Tam, Gregory So, Rimsky Yuen, Wong Kam-sing and Lau Kong-wah can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Clement Cheung can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:

“ Ideal ” : those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (79%)

“ Successful ” : those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

FS John Tsang Chun-wah (59%); CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (53%)

“ Mediocre ” : those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (49%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (42%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (40%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (39%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (34%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (33%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (31%)[19]; Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (31%)[19]; Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (21%)

“ Inconspicuous ” : those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung Wan-ching (22%, 29%)

“ Depressing ” : those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Leung Chun-ying (59%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (53%); Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (50%)[20]

“ Disastrous ” : those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

[19] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing are 30.9% and 30.5%.

[20] In one decimal place, the disapproval rate of Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po is 50.3%.

Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, I reprint again the abstracts of two articles written by me before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”

Future Release (Tentative)

September 22, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Trust and confidence indicators

No. of hits since Jun 3, 2000: 81,029,087

No. of hits since Jan 1, 2018: 167,139

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Everything carried in this website does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles and messages posted at the opinion platforms. Any responsibility, legal and otherwise, arising from any such item shall vest entirely with its author. The intellectual property of all information contained in this website, including questionnaire design and research reports, originally belongs to HKU POP unless specified otherwise. HKU POP opens their copyright to the world via this website, but would request all users to acknowledge their source properly.

HKU POP all rights reserved.

Last update :  26/6/2019