HKU POP releases survey on the popularity of cross-strait political figuresBack
Press Release on August 25, 2015
| Detailed Findings (Rating of the Top Ten Political Figures in Mainland China and Taiwan) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) at The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” （http://hkupop.pori.hk） the raw data of all 78 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan in August, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to 5 months ago, the rankings of top 10 cross-strait political figures have not changed much, but most ratings have dropped. On the awareness level, all top 10 cross-strait political figures on the list last time have stayed on the list, thus the split between Mainland and Taiwan figures remains the same, at a 6:4 split. In terms of support rating, among the 10 figures, 8 have dropped while 2 have risen. Among them, only those of Hu Jintao and Zhu Rongji have changed significantly, down by 2.9 and 2.2 marks respectively. Besides, the rating of Jiang Zemin continues to search for its bottom, as it drops to record low again since Jiang entered the list in 1997, while the ratings of Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao drop to the levels registered in 1998 and 2000 respectively. As for the relative rankings, Zhu Rongji continues to rank 1st. Wen Jiabao and Xi Jinping swap positions to rank 2nd and 3rd. Li Keqiang, Hu Jintao, Ma Ying-jeou, Lien Chan, Jiang Zemin, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian continue to rank 4th to 10th unchanged. It should be noted that our list of “top 10 cross-strait political figures” only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known. The maximum sampling error of all rating figures is +/-2.3 marks at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 64%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey
there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,002 successful interviews, not 1,002 x 64.1% response rate, while the sample size of the second
stage rating survey is other 1,003 successful interviews, not 1,003 x 64.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random
samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of
various ratings not more than +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the
totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but
when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS).
If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases the latest findings of popularity of cross-strait political figures. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings[6] |
|
7-13/8/2015 (First stage naming survey) |
1,002 |
64.1% |
+/-3% |
|
14-20/8/2015 (Second stage rating survey) |
1,003 |
64.0% |
+/-2.3 |
[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
The research design of our “Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in first half of August. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin, Chen Shui-bian and Hu Jintao were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in mid-August, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 political figures. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997. Recent ratings of the top political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
28/3-2/4/2014 |
21-27/8/2014 |
16-19/3/2015 |
14-20/8/2015 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample base |
560-675 |
572-673 |
551-597 |
569-657 |
-- |
|
|
Overall response rate |
66.7% |
65.1% |
69.1% |
64.0% |
-- |
|
|
Latest finding / Recognition rate |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error [7] |
Recognition rate |
-- |
|
Zhu Rongji |
68.7{1}[8] |
67.5{1} |
69.1{1} |
66.9+/-2.0{1} |
81.7% |
-2.2[8] |
|
Wen Jiabao |
64.5{3}[8] |
63.8{3} |
62.9{3} |
63.9+/-1.9{2} |
92.5% |
+1.0 |
|
Xi Jinping |
65.0{2}[8] |
65.3{2} |
63.7{2} |
61.9+/-2.1{3} |
92.9% |
-1.8 |
|
Li Keqiang |
59.7{5}[8] |
59.9{5} |
59.9{4} |
58.1+/-2.1{4} |
88.5% |
-1.8 |
|
Hu Jintao |
61.5{4}[8] |
60.0{4} |
58.8{5} |
55.9+/-1.9{5} |
91.3% |
-2.9[8] |
|
Ma Ying-jeou |
51.7{8}[8] |
53.7{6}[8] |
52.0{6}[8] |
52.9+/-1.6{6} |
88.0% |
+0.9 |
|
Lien Chan |
53.5{6} |
51.3[8] [9] |
49.9{7} |
48.8+/-1.9{7} |
71.1% |
-1.1 |
|
Jiang Zemin |
52.9{7}[8] |
50.0{7}[8] |
45.4{8}[8] |
43.8+/-2.2{8} |
89.1% |
-1.6 |
|
Lee Teng-hui |
38.3{9}[8] |
38.1{8} |
39.8{9} |
37.8+/-2.3{9} |
78.2% |
-2.0 |
|
Chen Shui-bian |
23.4{10}[8] |
23.2{10} |
23.9{10} |
23.6+/-1.9{10} |
91.3% |
-0.3 |
|
Tsai Ing-wen |
48.2[8] [9] |
49.0 [9] |
52.0[8] [9] |
48.5+/-1.9[9] |
66.0% |
-3.5[8] |
|
James Soong |
-- |
-- |
-- |
45.7+/-2.0[9] |
68.2% |
-- |
|
Zhang Dejiang |
-- |
-- |
48.6[9] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Li Peng |
-- |
37.4{9} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Wang Chin-ping |
45.9[9] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. {} Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not listed.
Latest survey revealed that, among the ten most well-known political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, in terms of popularity rating, Zhu Rongji ranked first, attaining 66.9 marks. The 2nd and 3rd ranks went to Wen Jiabao and Xi Jinping with respective scores of 63.9 and 61.9 marks. Li Keqiang, Hu Jintao and Ma Ying-jeou occupied the 4th to 6th ranks with 58.1, 55.9 and 52.9 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks fell to Lien Chan, Jiang Zemin, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian with respective scores of 48.8, 43.8, 37.8 and 23.6 marks. For this latest survey, Tsai Ing-wen and James Soong obtained support ratings of 48.5 and 45.7 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political figures was 61.3 marks, while that for the top 10 was 51.4 marks. As for the overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 17 calendar months are tabulated as follows:
|
Date of survey |
28/3-2/4/2014 |
21-27/8/2014 |
16-19/3/2015 |
14-20/8/2015 |
No. of times on top 10 |
Average rating [10] |
Overall ranking [11] |
|
Zhu Rongji |
68.7 |
67.5 |
69.1 |
66.9 |
4 |
68.0 |
1 |
|
Xi Jinping |
65.0 |
65.3 |
63.7 |
61.9 |
4 |
64.0 |
2 |
|
Wen Jiabao |
64.5 |
63.8 |
62.9 |
63.9 |
4 |
63.8 |
3 |
|
Li Keqiang |
59.7 |
59.9 |
59.9 |
58.1 |
4 |
59.4 |
4 |
|
Hu Jintao |
61.5 |
60.0 |
58.8 |
55.9 |
4 |
59.0 |
5 |
|
Ma Ying-Jeou |
51.7 |
53.7 |
52.0 |
52.9 |
4 |
52.6 |
6 |
|
Jiang Zemin |
52.9 |
50.0 |
45.4 |
43.8 |
4 |
48.0 |
7 |
|
Lee Teng-hui |
38.3 |
38.1 |
39.8 |
37.8 |
4 |
38.5 |
8 |
|
Chen Shui-bian |
23.4 |
23.2 |
23.9 |
23.6 |
4 |
23.5 |
9 |
|
Lien Chan |
53.5 |
-- |
49.9 |
48.8 |
3 |
50.8 |
10 |
|
Li Peng |
-- |
37.4 |
-- |
-- |
1 |
37.4 |
11 |
[10] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by political figures over the past 18 months.
[11] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
The overall rankings in the past 17 months showed that nine political figures have been on the list for four times. Zhu Rongji ranked first, achieving an average rating of 68.0 marks, Xi Jinping and Wen Jiabao ranked 2nd and 3rd, attaining 64.0 and 63.8 marks correspondingly, Li Keqiang, Hu Jintao, Ma Ying-Jeou, Jiang Zemin, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian who ranked 4th to 9th with respective scores of 59.4, 59.0, 52.6, 48.0, 38.5 and 23.5 marks. Lien Chan has been on the list for three times, ranked the 10th with an average rating of 50.8 marks. Li Peng has been on the list once, ranked the 11th with an average rating of 37.4 marks.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from March 16 to 19, 2015 while the latest survey was conducted from August 14 to 20, 2015. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
13/8/15 |
Huge explosions in Tianjin warehouse containing hazardous chemical materials. |
|
12/8/15 |
Yuan drops by almost 4% against US dollar over the last two days. |
|
31/7/15 |
Beijing succeeds in applying to host the 2022 Winter Olympic. |
|
24/7/15 |
Zhang Dejiang meets Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong. |
|
3/7/15 |
The Chinese stock market continues to plunge and the Central Government moves to shore up the market. |
|
1/7/15 |
The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress passes a national security law. |
|
28/6/15 |
More than 500 injuries in Taiwan party dust explosion, 5 injured Hong Kong people sent to hospital. |
|
26/6/15 |
The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 7.4 percent single-day, with over 2,000 stocks fell by the daily trading limit. |
|
11/6/15 |
The mainland’s former security tsar Zhou Yongkang is sentenced to life in jail. |
|
2/6/15 |
A cruise ship capsizes in the Yangtze River during a storm. |
|
31/5/15 |
Beijing officials meet LegCo members and say that the 831 decision will remain valid. |
|
4/5/15 |
Xi Jinping meets visiting Kuomintang mission with Eric Chu as the leader. |
Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Compared to 5 months ago, the rankings of top 10 cross-strait political figures have not changed much, but most ratings have dropped. On the awareness level, all top 10 cross-strait political figures on the list last time have stayed on the list, thus the split between Mainland and Taiwan figures remains the same, at a 6:4 split. In terms of support rating, among the 10 figures, 8 have dropped while 2 have risen. Among them, only those of Hu Jintao and Zhu Rongji have changed significantly, down by 2.9 and 2.2 marks respectively. Besides, the rating of Jiang Zemin continues to search for its bottom, as it drops to record low again since Jiang entered the list in 1997, while the ratings of Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao drop to the levels registered in 1998 and 2000 respectively. As for the relative rankings, Zhu Rongji continues to rank 1st. Wen Jiabao and Xi Jinping swap positions to rank 2nd and 3rd. Li Keqiang, Hu Jintao, Ma Ying-jeou, Lien Chan, Jiang Zemin, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian continue to rank 4th to 10th unchanged. It should be noted that our list of ‘top 10 cross-strait political figures’ only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of different figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”
Future Release (Tentative)
September 1, 2015 (Tuesday): Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government
