HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack
Press Release on August 11, 2015
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |
Special Announcement
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 77 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 78th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong people between 3 and 6 August, 2015 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted in early August shows that the support rating of CE CY Leung has dropped sharply to 39.2 marks from late July, more than 5 marks below the warning line of 45. His approval rate now stands at 21%, disapproval rate 60%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 56.3 marks, her approval rate 49%, disapproval rate 13%, giving a net popularity of positive 36 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 60.6 marks, approval rate 60%, disapproval rate 11%, thus a net popularity of positive 49 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 47.4 marks, approval rate 32%, disapproval rate 22%, giving a net popularity of positive 9 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating, John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, excluding the newly appointed Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, who have no prior record for time series analysis, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 4 among other 10 Directors have gone up, while 5 have gone down and one remains unchanged. None of the Directors register significant changes in their net approval rates. Among all the Directors, only Lau Kong-wah, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan register negative popularities, at negative 19, 27 and 31 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 67 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Anthony Cheung, Wong Kam-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Raymond Tam, Gregory So, Lau Kong-wah, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan and Clement Cheung can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45 again, Director of POP, Robert Chung, again reprints the abstracts of two articles written by him before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,002 successful interviews, not 1,002 x 64.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
3-6/8/2015 |
1,002 |
64.9% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
|
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[7] (maximum values) |
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[7] (maximum values) |
|
1,300 |
+/- 2.8 % |
1,350 |
+/- 2.7 % |
|
1,200 |
+/- 2.9 % |
1,250 |
+/- 2.8 % |
|
1,100 |
+/- 3.0 % |
1,150 |
+/- 3.0 % |
|
1,000 |
+/- 3.2 % |
1,050 |
+/- 3.1 % |
|
900 |
+/- 3.3 % |
950 |
+/- 3.2 % |
|
800 |
+/- 3.5 % |
850 |
+/- 3.4 % |
|
700 |
+/- 3.8 % |
750 |
+/- 3.7 % |
|
600 |
+/- 4.1 % |
650 |
+/- 3.9 % |
|
500 |
+/- 4.5 % |
550 |
+/- 4.3 % |
|
400 |
+/- 5.0 % |
450 |
+/- 4.7 % |
[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.
Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
15-21/5/15 |
3-9/6/15 |
22 -2 5/6/ 1 5 |
6-10/7/15 |
20-23/7/15 |
3-6/8/15 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
1,063 |
1,066 |
1,038 |
1,009 |
1,010 |
1,002 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
65.6% |
63.9% |
67.4% |
65.7% |
66.4% |
64.9% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error [8] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE CY Leung |
44.6 |
42.6[9] |
44.1 |
45.4 |
43.9 |
39.2+/-1.8 |
-4.7[9] |
|
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung |
22% |
23% |
27%[9] |
26% |
25% |
21+/-3% |
-4%[9] |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung |
57% |
58% |
56% |
57% |
59% |
60+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate |
-35% |
-35% |
-29%[9] |
-31% |
-34% |
-39+/-5% |
-5% |
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
|
Date of survey |
31/3-9/4/15 |
4-7/5/15 |
3-9/6/15 |
6-10/7/15 |
3-6/8/15 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base[10] |
664-689 |
556-589 |
537-605 |
579-686 |
564-667 |
-- |
|
Overall response rate |
68.4% |
66.2% |
63.9% |
65.7% |
64.9% |
-- |
|
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [11] |
-- |
|
Rating of CS Carrie Lam |
56.2[12] |
57.4 |
55.4 |
57.2 |
56.3+/-2.0 |
-0.9 |
|
Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam |
49% |
54%[12] |
54% |
49%[12] |
49+/-4% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam |
15%[12] |
17% |
21% |
16%[12] |
13+/-3% |
-3% |
|
Net approval rate |
34%[12] |
37% |
33% |
33% |
36+/-5% |
+3% |
|
Rating of FS John Tsang |
60.2 |
58.2[12] |
59.0 |
60.1 |
60.6+/-1.8 |
+0.5 |
|
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang |
59% |
49%[12] |
57%[12] |
56% |
60+/-4% |
+4% |
|
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang |
12% |
13% |
13% |
9%[12] |
11+/-3% |
+2% |
|
Net approval rate |
47% |
36%[12] |
44%[12] |
48% |
49+/-5% |
+1% |
|
Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen |
48.1[12] |
50.1 |
49.8 |
49.6 |
47.4+/-2.2 |
-2.2 |
|
Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
30% |
35%[12] |
36% |
31%[12] |
32+/-4% |
+1% |
|
Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
26%[12] |
22%[12] |
25% |
23% |
22+/-4% |
-1% |
|
Net approval rate |
4%[12] |
13%[12] |
10% |
8% |
9+/-6% |
+1% |
[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:
|
Date of survey |
3-9/6/15 |
6-10/7/15 |
3-6/8/15 |
Latest change |
|||
|
Sample base [13] |
612-655 |
589-628 |
577-631 |
-- |
|||
|
Overall response rate |
63.9% |
65.7% |
64.9% |
-- |
|||
|
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer |
Base |
% |
Base |
% |
Base |
% & error [14] |
-- |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man |
646 |
74% |
620 |
73% |
631 |
74+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man |
646 |
7% |
620 |
8% |
631 |
7+/-2% |
-1% |
|
Net approval rate |
646 |
67% |
620 |
65% |
631 |
67+/-5% |
+2% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan |
655 |
42% |
611 |
41% |
583 |
41+/-4% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan |
655 |
8% |
611 |
10% |
583 |
9+/-2% |
-1% |
|
Net approval rate |
655 |
35% |
611 |
32% |
583 |
32+/-5% |
-- |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung |
625 |
48% |
625 |
49% |
624 |
47+/-4% |
-2% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung |
625 |
16% |
625 |
15% |
624 |
16+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate |
625 |
32% |
625 |
34% |
624 |
31+/-6% |
-3% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung |
616 |
30%[15] |
595 |
38%[15] |
589 |
35+/-4% |
-3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung |
616 |
27% |
595 |
23%[15] |
589 |
18+/-3% |
-5%[15] |
|
Net approval rate |
616 |
3%[15] |
595 |
15%[15] |
589 |
17+/-6% |
+2% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
617 |
36% |
628 |
32% |
589 |
34+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
617 |
22% |
628 |
20% |
589 |
21+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate |
617 |
13% |
628 |
12% |
589 |
13+/-6% |
+1% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung[16] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
611 |
19+/-3% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung[16] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
611 |
8+/-2% |
-- |
|
Net approval rate |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
611 |
12+/-4% |
-- |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam |
643 |
33% |
591 |
31% |
605 |
31+/-4% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam |
643 |
28% |
591 |
24% |
605 |
21+/-3% |
-3% |
|
Net approval rate |
643 |
5% |
591 |
7% |
605 |
10+/-6% |
+3% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok |
650 |
36%[15] |
589 |
41%[15] |
591 |
37+/-4% |
-4% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok |
650 |
27% |
589 |
26% |
591 |
28+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Net approval rate |
650 |
9%[15] |
589 |
14% |
591 |
9+/-7% |
-5% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So |
634 |
26%[15] |
590 |
32%[15] |
586 |
31+/-4% |
-1% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So |
634 |
27% |
590 |
23%[15] |
586 |
26+/-4% |
+3% |
|
Net approval rate |
634 |
-2%[15] |
590 |
9%[15] |
586 |
6+/-6% |
-3% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah[17] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
577 |
23+/-4% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah[17] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
577 |
42+/-4% |
-- |
|
Net approval rate |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
577 |
-19+/-7% |
-- |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng |
612 |
17% |
600 |
20% |
599 |
18+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng |
612 |
51%[15] |
600 |
46%[15] |
599 |
45+/-4% |
-1% |
|
Net approval rate |
612 |
-34%[15] |
600 |
-26%[15] |
599 |
-27+/-6% |
-1% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan |
636 |
17% |
609 |
21%[15] |
601 |
17+/-3% |
-4%[15] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan |
636 |
53% |
609 |
46%[15] |
601 |
48+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Net approval rate |
636 |
-36% |
609 |
-25%[15] |
601 |
-31+/-6% |
-6% |
[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] The government announced the appointment of Clement Cheung as the new Secretary for the Civil Service on July 21, 2015.
[17] The government announced the appointment of Lau Kong-wah as the new Secretary for Home Affairs on July 21, 2015.
The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 39.2 marks, and 21% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 39 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 56.3, 60.6 and 47.4 marks, and 49%, 60% and 32% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 36, positive 49 and positive 9 percentage points respectively.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 67 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung with net approval rates of positive 32 and positive 31 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan ranked 4th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 17, positive 13, positive 12, positive 10, positive 9, positive 6, negative 19, negative 27 and negative 31 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 6 to 10 July, 2015 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 6 August, 2015. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
31/7/15 |
Yuen Kwok-yung resigns as staff representative of the Hong Kong University Council. |
|
30/7/15 |
A female protestor is sentenced to prison for assaulting a police officer “with her breast”. |
|
28/7/15 |
Students of The University of Hong Kong burst into the University Council's pro vice chancellor appointment meeting. |
|
22/7/15 |
The reference ranges of an Alkaline Phosphatase analyser in Tuen Mun Hospital were wrongly set in past two years. |
|
21/7/15 |
Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok Wai and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak Sing step down from their positions. |
|
20/7/15 |
Rhizopus microsporus is found in linens at Queen Mary Hospital. |
|
10/7/15 |
Water samples from Kai Ching Estate contain excessive lead. |
|
7/7/15 |
Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets plunge. |
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.
Our latest survey conducted in early August shows that the support rating of CE CY Leung has dropped sharply to 39.2 marks from late July, more than 5 marks below the warning line of 45. His approval rate now stands at 21%, disapproval rate 60%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 56.3 marks, her approval rate 49%, disapproval rate 13%, giving a net popularity of positive 36 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 60.6 marks, approval rate 60%, disapproval rate 11%, thus a net popularity of positive 49 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 47.4 marks, approval rate 32%, disapproval rate 22%, giving a net popularity of positive 9 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating, John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, excluding the newly appointed Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, who have no prior record for time series analysis, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 4 among other 10 Directors have gone up, while 5 have gone down and one remains unchanged. None of the Directors register significant changes in their net approval rates. Among all the Directors, only Lau Kong-wah, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan register negative popularities, at negative 19, 27 and 31 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 67 percentage points.
According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Anthony Cheung, Wong Kam-sing, Rimsky Yuen, Raymond Tam, Gregory So, Lau Kong-wah, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan and Clement Cheung can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:
|
“ Ideal ” : those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
|
Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (74%) |
|
“ Successful ” : those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
|
FS John Tsang Chun-wah (60%) |
|
“ Mediocre ” : those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
|
CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (49%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (47%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (37%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (35%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (34%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (32%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (31%)[18]; Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (31%)[18]; Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (23%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (18%); Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (17%) |
|
|
|
“ Inconspicuous ” : those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
|
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (41%, 50%); Secretary for the Civil Service Clement Cheung Wan-ching (19%, 27%) |
|
|
|
“ Depressing ” : those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
|
CE Leung Chun-ying (60%) |
|
“ Disastrous ” : those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
[18] In three decimal places, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung are 31.243% and 31.240%.
Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45, I reprint again the abstracts of two articles written by me before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.
“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”
“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”
Future Release (Tentative)
August 18, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Taiwan issues
