HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

1. Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has uploaded the full set of video record of the July 1 Rally onto the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk). People can download the videos from the “July 1 Rally Feature page”, and do their own headcount of the Rally. Video clips at higher resolutions are also available for purchase at production cost. Details available at the feature page.


2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 76 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 77th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
   

POP interviewed 1,010 Hong Kong people between 20 and 23 July 2015 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that CE CY Leung’s popularity figures have receded slightly from early July. His support rating drops below the warning line of 45 again to 43.9 marks. His approval rate now stands at 25%, disapproval rate at 59%, giving a net popularity of negative 34 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has not changed much compared to a month ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 31%, dissatisfaction rate at 43%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 13 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of CY Leung as CE. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung dropped below the warning line of 45 again, Director of POP, Robert Chung, again reprints the abstracts of two articles written by him before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people’s satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 43.9 marks, and 25% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 34 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 31% were satisfied, whereas 43% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 13 percentage points. The mean score is 2.7, which is in between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half”.

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ satisfaction with the present livelihood condition in Hong Kong by age and education attainment:

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 22 to 25 June, 2015 while this survey was conducted from 20 to 23 July, 2015. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our latest survey shows that CE CY Leung’s popularity figures have receded slightly from early July. His support rating drops below the warning line of 45 again to 43.9 marks. His approval rate now stands at 25%, disapproval rate at 59%, giving a net popularity of negative 34 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has not changed much compared to a month ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 31%, dissatisfaction rate at 43%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 13 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of CY Leung as CE. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’. Since the support rating of CE CY Leung dropped below the warning line of 45 again, I reprint again the abstracts of two articles written by me before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.”

“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…”

“New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”

• August 4, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Social, freedom and legal indicators