HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack
Press Release on July 14, 2015 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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POP interviewed 1,009 Hong Kong people between 6 and 10 July, 2015 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted in early July shows that the support rating of CE CY Leung has slightly increased to 45.4 marks from late June, back above the warning line of 45 marks again, first time since August last year. Leung’s approval rate now stands at 26%, disapproval rate 57%, giving a net popularity of negative 31 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 57.2 marks, her approval rate 49%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 33 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 60.1 marks, approval rate 56%, disapproval rate 9%, thus a net popularity of positive 48 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 49.6 marks, approval rate 31%, disapproval rate 23%, giving a net popularity of positive 8 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating, John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 8 among the 12 Directors have gone up, while 3 have gone down and one remains unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Development Paul Chan and Secretary for Education Eddie Ng register significant changes in their net approval rates, up by 12, 11, 11 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Paul Chan and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 25 and 26 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 65 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Lai Tung-kwok, Anthony Cheung, Gregory So, Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen, Tsang Tak-sing, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%. Points to note:
[1]The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
[6]Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
[7]Based on 95% confidence interval.
Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:
[8]All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. The survey conducted on 25/2/2015 was the instant survey after the Budget Speech and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:
[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 45.4 marks, and 26% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 31 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 57.2, 60.1 and 49.6 marks, and 49%, 56% and 31% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 33, positive 48 and positive 8 percentage points respectively.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 65 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan with net approval rates of positive 34 and 32 percentage points respectively. Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Development Paul Chan and Secretary for Education Eddie Ng ranked 4th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 20, positive 15, positive 14, positive 12, positive 9, positive 7, positive 7, negative 25 and negative 26 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.
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Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events an/ selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP. For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 3 to 9 June, 2015 while this survey was conducted from 6 to 10 July, 2015. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.
Our latest survey conducted in early July shows that the support rating of CE CY Leung has slightly increased to 45.4 marks from late June, back above the warning line of 45 marks again, first time since August last year. Leung’s approval rate now stands at 26%, disapproval rate 57%, giving a net popularity of negative 31 percentage points.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 57.2 marks, her approval rate 49%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net popularity of positive 33 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 60.1 marks, approval rate 56%, disapproval rate 9%, thus a net popularity of positive 48 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 49.6 marks, approval rate 31%, disapproval rate 23%, giving a net popularity of positive 8 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating, John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 8 among the 12 Directors have gone up, while 3 have gone down and one remains unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Development Paul Chan nd Secretary for Education Eddie Ng register significant changes in their net approval rates, up by 12, 11, 11 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Paul Chan and Eddie Ng register negative popularities, at negative 25 and 26 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 65 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang falls under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Ceajer Chan, Lai Tung-kwok, Anthony Cheung, Gregory So, Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Rimsky Yuen, Tsang Tak-sing, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:
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[18]In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung are 49.0% and 48.6%.
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| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | |