| Press Release on July 7, 2015 |
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|Special Announcements | Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Appraisal of Society's Current Conditions) |
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Special Announcements
- Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong conducted a headcount of July 1 Rally participants on July 1, and released its preliminary results via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) in the evening on the same day. Same as last year, to facilitate the public to do their own headcount of the Rally, POP will upload the full version of video record of the Rally to the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk) 10 days after the Rally.
- To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “POP Site” the raw data of all 75 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
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Abstract
POP interviewed 1,037 Hong Kong people from June 29 to July 2, 2015 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that using a one-in-three choices method, people are most concerned with livelihood issues, followed by economic and then political issues. In terms of absolute ratings, the order of people’s concern across three broad areas is exactly the same. However, all absolute ratings have increased significantly compared to six months ago, and that of economic issues has even dropped to a 10-year low. With the passing away of various mass movements, people seem to care much less about the society. This phenomenon itself seems to call for attention. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of economic condition now stands at zero, while that of livelihood and political conditions stand at negative 25 and negative 57 percentage points, meaning that people are quite dissatisfied with the current political condition. In-depth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current livelihood condition. The maximum sampling error of all percentages in the survey mentioned is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,037 successful interviews, not 1,037 x 67.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.16 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
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Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP Site” the latest findings of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Sampling error of percentages[6] |
29/6-2/7/2015 |
1,037 |
67.6% |
+/-3% |
[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Recent figures of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
Date of survey |
13-19/6/13 |
20-30/12/13 |
16-19/6/14 |
19-30/12/14 |
29/6-2/7/15 |
Latest Change |
Sample base |
1,040 |
1,019 |
1,018 |
1,017 |
1,037 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
68.0% |
67.3% |
68.4% |
67.8% |
67.6% |
-- |
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error[7] |
-- |
Most concerned with livelihood problems[8] |
60% |
58% |
56% |
55% |
60+/-3% |
+5%[10] |
Most concerned with economic problems |
24% |
24% |
18%[10] |
23%[10] |
19+/-2% |
-4%[10] |
Most concerned with political problems |
13% |
16%[10] |
22%[10] |
21% |
17+/-2% |
-4%[10] |
Rating on concern for livelihood problems[8] |
7.32 |
7.24 |
7.20 |
7.36[10] |
7.13+/-0.13 |
-0.23[10] |
Rating on concern for economic problems |
7.02[10] |
6.98 |
6.76[10] |
6.98[10] |
6.69+/-0.12 |
-0.29[10] |
Rating on concern for political problems |
5.77 |
5.77 |
5.89[10] |
6.24[10] |
5.74+/-0.16 |
-0.50[10] |
Date of survey |
13-19/6/13 |
20-30/12/13 |
16-19/6/14 |
19-30/12/14 |
29/6-2/7/15 |
Latest Change |
Sample base |
1,040 |
1,019 |
1,018 |
1,017 |
1,037 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
68.0% |
67.3% |
68.4% |
67.8% |
67.6% |
-- |
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error[7] |
-- |
Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[8][9] |
22% |
19% |
26%[10] |
24% |
20+/-2% |
-4%[10] |
Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[8][9] |
50% |
56% |
50% |
47% |
45+/-3% |
-2% |
Net satisfaction rate |
-28% |
-37% |
-25%[10] |
-23% |
-25+/-5% |
-2% |
Mean value[9] |
2.6
(Base=1,025) |
2.4
(Base=1,010) |
2.6
(Base=1,009) |
2.6
(Base=1,005) |
2.6+/-0.1
(Base=1,023) |
-- |
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[9] |
30% |
30% |
35%[10] |
34% |
31+/-3% |
-3% |
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[9] |
39% |
40% |
35%[10] |
32% |
31+/-3% |
-1% |
Net satisfaction rate |
-9% |
-10% |
-1%[10] |
1% |
0+/-5% |
-1% |
Mean value[9] |
2.8
(Base=1,016) |
2.8
(Base=1,004) |
2.9
(Base=987) |
3.0
(Base=1,006) |
2.9+/-0.1
(Base=1,015) |
-0.1 |
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[9] |
13% |
7% |
11%[10] |
12% |
7+/-2% |
-5%[10] |
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[9] |
56% |
69% |
65% |
63% |
64+/-3% |
+1% |
Net satisfaction rate |
-43% |
-62% |
-54% |
-51% |
-57+/-4% |
-6%[10] |
Mean value[9] |
2.3
(Base=941) |
2.0
(Base=952) |
2.1
(Base=936) |
2.2
(Base=960) |
2.0+/-0.1
(Base=962) |
-0.2[10] |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.16 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8]The wordings used before the June 2010 survey were “social problems” and “social condition”. We take them to mean the same as “livelihood problems” and “livelihood condition” in the survey context.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Latest survey showed that 60% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems, 19% with economic problems, while 17% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems were 7.13, 6.69 and 5.74 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people’s satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions were 20%, 31% and 7% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were negative 25, 0 and negative 57 percentage points. The mean scores of the livelihood, political and economic conditions were 2.6, 2.9 and 2.0, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.
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Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ satisfaction with the present livelihood condition in Hong Kong by age and education attainment:
Date of survey：19-30/12/14 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall Sample |
Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the present livelihood condition in Hong Kong? [11] |
Satisfied |
14+/-5%
(25) |
15+/-4%
(57) |
26+/-4%
(120) |
20+/-2%
(203) |
Half-half |
31+/-7%
(56) |
33+/-5%
(124) |
37+/-4%
(171) |
34+/-3%
(351) |
Dissatisfied |
55+/-7%
(101) |
52+/-5%
(195) |
36+/-4%
(166) |
45+/-3%
(463) |
Don't know/
hard to say |
1+/-1%
(2) |
<1+/-<1%
(2) |
2+/-1%
(8) |
1+/-1%
(11) |
Total |
100%
(185) |
100%
(378) |
100%
(465) |
100%
(1,028) |
Mean value |
2.4+/-0.1
(183) |
2.5+/-0.1
(376) |
2.8+/-0.1
(457) |
2.6+/-0.1
(1,017) |
[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
Date of survey：19-30/12/14 |
Primary or below |
Secondary |
Tertiary or above |
Overall Sample |
Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the present livelihood condition in Hong Kong? [12] |
Satisfied |
24+/-5%
(58) |
22+/-4%
(107) |
14+/-4%
(42) |
20+/-2%
(206) |
Half-half |
39+/-6%
(94) |
34+/-4%
(169) |
29+/-5%
(85) |
34+/-3%
(348) |
Dissatisfied |
34+/-6%
(82) |
44+/-4%
(216) |
56+/-6%
(162) |
45+/-3%
(461) |
Don't know /
hard to say |
4+/-2%
(9) |
<1+/-<1%
(2) |
<1+/-<1%
(1) |
1+/-1%
(12) |
Total |
100%
(243) |
100%
(494) |
100%
(290) |
100%
(1,027) |
Mean value |
2.8+/-0.1
(234) |
2.7+/-0.1
(491) |
2.4+/-0.1
(289) |
2.6+/-0.1
(1,015) |
[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
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Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from December 19 to 30, 2014 while this survey was conducted from June 29 to July 2, 2015. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
1/7/15 |
The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress passes a national security law. |
18/6/15 |
The political reform package is vetoed. |
9/6/15 |
Hong Kong government announces a “red travel alert” against South Korea for the threat of MERS. |
15/5/15 |
Shenzhen topples Hong Kong as “most economically competitive” city. |
22/4/15 |
Government announces the proposal for selecting the Chief Executive in 2017. |
11/4/15 |
Multiple-entry permits are changed to allow only one trip per week. |
8/4/15 |
Hong Kong stock market turnover reaches all-time high. |
4/4/15 |
The 25th anniversary of the promulgation of the Basic Law. |
17/3/15 |
The Executive Council approved the building of the third airport runway. |
25/2/15 |
Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah releases the 2015-2016 Budget. |
28/1/15 |
Hong Kong maintains ranked as world’s freest economy for 21 years in a row. |
14/1/15 |
CY Leung delivers the 2015 Policy Address. |
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “According to our latest survey conducted after the row over political reform settles, using a one-in-three choices method, people are most concerned with livelihood issues, followed by economic and then political issues. In terms of absolute ratings, the order of people’s concern across three broad areas is exactly the same. However, all absolute ratings have increased significantly compared to six months ago, and that of economic issues has even dropped to a 10-year low. With the passing away of various mass movements, people seem to care much less about the society. This phenomenon itself seems to call for attention. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of economic condition now stands at zero, while that of livelihood and political conditions stand at negative 25 and negative 57 percentage points, meaning that people are quite dissatisfied with the current political condition. In-depth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current livelihood condition. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page.”
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Future Releases (Tentative)
- July 14, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials
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|Special Announcements | Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis |Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Appraisal of Society's Current Conditions) |
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