HKU POP releases HKSAR Anniversary survey and forecasts July 1 rally study arrangementsBack

Press Release on June 30, 2015

Special Announcements

(1) To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 75 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

(2) POP’s usual practice is to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also end point of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. Recently, POP issues a number of releases under the “HKSAR anniversary” survey series. Please see POP Site and also the “Future Release” section of this press release for more information. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running HKSAR anniversary reviews.

(3) Moreover, as in previous years, POP will conduct a headcount of July 1 Rally participants tomorrow, and releases its preliminary results via the POP Site in the evening, around 2 to 4 hours after the rally.

Abstract of Anniversary Survey

POP interviewed 1,038 Hong Kong people between 22 and 25 June, 2015 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. As the 18th Handover Anniversary draws near, after the row over political reform settles, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a Chinese national citizen has increased significantly by 5 percentage points to 38%, roughly back to the level registered in 2012. Regarding people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s Hong Kong policies, positive appraisal now stands at 33%, negative appraisal 32%, bringing net appraisal from last year’s negative 2 percentage points to positive 2 percentage points (after rounding up to the nearest integer), but all changes are within sampling errors. Indepth analyses show that the younger the respondent, the less proud one feels of becoming a Chinese national citizen, and also more negative about the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of net values needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note：

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] Since the figures in this release come from the annual survey conducted by HKUPOP in 2015, these yearly figures are good for general reviews of Hong Kong’s development.
[3] The sample size of this survey is 1,038 successful interviews, not 1,038 x 67.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[4] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[5] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[6] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP SITE the latest survey results related to the handover anniversary. The two questions are “people’s feeling of becoming a national citizen of China” and “people’s appraisal of the policy of Central Government on Hong Kong”. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages ^{^[7]}
22-25/6/2015	1,038	67.4%	+/-3%

[7] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The survey results are tabulated below:

Date of survey	17-22/6/11	19-25/6/12	20-25/6/13	16-19/6/14	22-25/6/15	Latest change
Sample base	1,028	1,048	1,047	1,018	1,038	--
Overall response rate	68.4%	69.6%	66.9%	68.4%	67.4%	--
Finding for each question / Sampling error^[8]	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & Error^[8]	--
Proud of becoming a national citizen of China	41%^[10]	37%^[10]	33%^[10]	33%	38+/-3%	+5%^[10]
Not proud of becoming a national citizen of China	55%^[10]	58%	63%^[10]	62%	56+/-3%	-6%^[10]
Central Government’s HK policies: positive appraisal^[9]	34%^[10]	38%^[10]	30%^[10]	31%	33+/-3%	+2%
Central Government’s HK policies: negative appraisal^[9]	21%	24%	32%^[10]	33%	32+/-3%	-1%
Central Government’s HK policies: net appraisal^[9]	13%^[10]	14%	-2%^[10]	-2%	2+/-5%	+4%
Mean value^[9]	3.1^[10] (Base=971)	3.1 (Base=1,012)	2.9^[10] (Base=984)	2.9 (Base=969)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=981)	+0.1

[8]All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% and sampling error of net satisfaction rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results of the latest anniversary survey revealed that, 38% of the respondents were proud of becoming a national citizen of China after the handover, while 56% said they did not have any special feeling. As for the policy of the Central Government on Hong Kong after the handover, 33% of the respondents evaluated it positively, whereas 32% gave negative appraisal, giving a net appraisal of positive 2 percentage points. The mean score is 3.0 marks, meaning “half-half”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondent being proud of becoming a national citizen of China and Central Government’s policy on Hong Kong by age:

Date of survey: 22-25/6/2015		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Proud to be a national citizen of China^{^[11]}	Yes	19+/-6% (34)	31+/-5% (118)	51+/-5% (237)	38+/-3% (389)
	No	78+/-6% (143)	63+/-5% (238)	42+/-5% (197)	56+/-3% (578)
	Don’t know / hard to say	3+/-3% (6)	6+/-2% (23)	7+/-2% (31)	6+/-1% (59)
	Total	100% (183)	100% (378)	100% (465)	100% (1,026)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level

Date of survey: 22-25/6/2015		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Appraisal of the Central Government’s Hong Kong policies ^{^[12]}	Good	13+/-5% (23)	32+/-5% (121)	42+/-5% (195)	33+/-3% (339)
	Half-half	33+/-7% (61)	30+/-5% (114)	29+/-4% (136)	30+/-3% (311)
	Negative	52+/-7% (96)	32+/-5% (122)	23+/-4% (106)	32+/-3% (325)
	Don’t know / hard to say	2+/-2% (3)	6+/-2% (22)	6+/-2% (26)	5+/-1% (51)
	Total	100% (184)	100% (379)	100% (464)	100% (1,027)
	Mean value	2.4+/-0.1 (180)	2.9+/-0.1 (357)	3.3+/-0.1 (438)	3.0/-0.1 (975)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

Since August 2007, POP would normally include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. Yet, this press release is an exception. It is because for the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 16 to 19, 2014 while this survey was conducted from June 22 to 25, 2015. The two surveys were one year apart, and any of the significant events inside “Opinion Daily” in between might have affected people’s comments for the year past. Thus, this press release would not further select the events from “Opinion Daily”, but readers can make their own judgment based on the detailed records in the respective online section.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “As the 18th Handover Anniversary draws near, after the row over political reform settles, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a Chinese national citizen has increased significantly by 5 percentage points to 38%, roughly back to the level registered in 2012. Regarding people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s Hong Kong policies, positive appraisal now stands at 33%, negative appraisal 32%, bringing net appraisal from last year’s negative 2 percentage points to positive 2 percentage points (after rounding up to the nearest integer), but all changes are within sampling errors. Indepth analyses show that the younger the respondent, the less proud one feels of becoming a Chinese national citizen, and also more negative about the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong. Over the years, it has been our practice to issue more frequent releases before and after the middle and also end point of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption.”

Future Release (Tentative)

July 7, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s appraisal of society’s conditions