HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack
Press Release on June 16, 2015 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special Announcement To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 73 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. POP today releases the raw data of the latest which is the 74th CE rating survey of CY Leung. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
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POP interviewed 1,066 Hong Kong people between 3 and 9 June, 2015 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted in early June shows that the support rating of CE CY Leung recedes again and goes down to 42.6 marks, staying below the warning line of 45. His approval rate now stands at 23%, disapproval rate 58%, giving a net popularity of negative 35 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 55.4 marks, her approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 21%, giving a net popularity of positive 33 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 59.0 marks, approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 13%, thus a net popularity of positive 44 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 49.8 marks, approval rate 36%, disapproval rate 25%, giving a net popularity of positive 10 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating, John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 5 among the 12 Directors have gone up, while 6 have gone down and one remains unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok and Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim register significant changes in their net approval rates, down by 13, 9, 8 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Gregory So, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan register negative popularities, at negative 2, 34 and 36 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 67 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang and Carrie Lam fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Rimsky Yuen, Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Tsang Tak-sing, Anthony Cheung and Gregory So can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling errors of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 64%. As the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45 again, Director of POP, Robert Chung, again reprints the abstracts of two articles written by him before on CE popularity, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site. Points to note:
[1]The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
[6]Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
[7]Based on 95% confidence interval.
Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:
[8]All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. The survey conducted on 25/2/2015 was the instant survey after the Budget Speech and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:
[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 42.6 marks, and 23% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 35 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 55.4, 59.0 and 49.8 marks, and 54%, 57% and 36% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 33, positive 44 and positive 10 percentage points respectively
As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 67 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung with net approval rates of positive 35 and 32 percentage points respectively. Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan ranked 4th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 17, positive 13, positive 9, positive 7, positive 5, positive 3, negative 2, negative 34 and negative 36 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man scored net approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.
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Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events an/ selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP. For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 4 to 7 May, 2015 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 9 June, 2015. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP, Robert Chung.
Our latest survey conducted in early June shows that the support rating of CE CY Leung recedes again and goes down to 42.6 marks, staying below the warning line of 45. His approval rate now stands at 23%, disapproval rate 58%, giving a net popularity of negative 35 percentage points.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 55.4 marks, her approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 21%, giving a net popularity of positive 33 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 59.0 marks, approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 13%, thus a net popularity of positive 44 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 49.8 marks, approval rate 36%, disapproval rate 25%, giving a net popularity of positive 10 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating, John Tsang continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 5 among the 12 Directors have gone up, while 6 have gone down and one remains unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok and Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim register significant changes in their net approval rates, down by 13, 9, 8 and 8 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, Gregory So, Eddie Ng and Paul Chan register negative popularities, at negative 2, 34 and 36 percentage points respectively. Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 67 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, John Tsang and Carrie Lam fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Lai Tung-kwok, Rimsky Yuen, Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Tsang Tak-sing, Anthony Cheung and Gregory So can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Ceajer Chan and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. CY Leung, Paul Chan and Eddie Ng fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:
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[17]In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing are 35.8%, 35.6% and 35.5%.
Since the support rating of CE CY Leung continues to stand below the warning line of 45 again, I reprint again the abstracts of two articles written by me before on CE popularity for public reference, to discuss the possibility of a governance crisis. The articles can be downloaded in full from the POP Site.
“The Popularity of Tung Chee-hwa from All Angles” (released on 14/5/2003): “According to our experience, a political figure with less than 50 marks can be said to have fallen into negative popularity, while a score of less than 45 marks can indicate credibility crisis. Using this analysis, Tung has been negatively popular among the general public since August 2002, and in March 2003, he has sunk into a credibility crisis…” “New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings” (released on 12/6/2003): “Concurrent tests showed that a support rating of 55 marks was more or less equivalent to a ‘vote share’ of 45%, 50 marks could be converted to round about 30%, 45 marks to 20%, and 40 marks to 10% to 15%... In late 1990, after the ‘approval rate’ of Margaret Thatcher sank to 25%, she withdrew from the election for the leader of the British Conservative Party, thereby gave up her job as the Prime Minister of UK, a post which she held since 1979. In early 1997, John Major lost his post of Prime Minister to Tony Blair, after his ‘approval rate’ hovered around the level of 30% for a long time. As for former USA President Bill Clinton, his lowest ever ‘approval rate’ within his 8-year terms of office was as high as 37%...”
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| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | |