HKU POP releases findings on people’s feeling towards different governments and peoplesBack

Press Release on June 9, 2015

Special Announcement

The “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) run by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong continues to release the results of the “Joint-University Rolling Survey on 2017 Chief Executive Election Proposal” on a daily basis except weekends and holidays. According to the latest findings, for the survey conducted from June 1 to 5, 44% “supported” the government’s proposal on CE election of 2017, 42% “opposed” and 15% did not give a definite answer. For details please refer to the feature page at http://hkupop.pori.hk/english/features/jointUrollingSurvey. Please note that the data released to public has a time lag of four days. Moreover, due to sampling errors, when quoting the figures, journalists should refrain from reporting the decimal places of the percentage figures.

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via POP Site the raw data of all 73 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on Hong Kong citizens’ feeling towards different governments and peoples in May and June, by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that in terms of net affinity Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards fellow Hong Kong people is 39 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 37 percentage points higher than that towards the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 16 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 8 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. It should be noted that the net value of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards fellow Hong Kong people has dropped to its record low since this survey started in 2007, which is another indicator of society’s polarization. As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of Japan, Thailand, the United States and Russia whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. These findings are worth studying by various governments. As for reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level while the sampling error of net values need another calculation. The response rate of the second stage opinion survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,089 successful interviews, not 1,089 x 65.1% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,038 successful interviews, not 1,038 x 66.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of various percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the survey findings on Hong Kong people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples. These surveys on governments are conducted at least once a year since 1997, while the surveys on peoples only began in 2007, this being the sixteenth time. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages ^{^[6]}
22-28/5/2015 (First stage naming survey)	1,089	65.1%	+/-3%
29/5-2/6/2015 (Second stage opinion survey)	1,038	66.5%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. For this survey, the sub-sample size of all questions has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have been reported in the statistical tables.

The research design of our survey on “people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. For many years, POP have selected 15 regions and countries that are best known to Hong Kong people, and conducted surveys to measure people’s feeling towards the governments of these places. Our primary objective was to map Hong Kong people’s cosmopolitan view over time. In 2007, we improved our research design. Our mid-2007 survey was divided into two stages, namely, a naming survey and an opinion survey. In the 2007 year-end survey, we further added the people module to the survey. In specific terms, in our naming survey, other than Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan and Macau, respondents can name, unaided, up to ten regions or countries which they know best. The four cross-strait regions together with 12 other regions and countries most frequently mentioned in the naming stage were then shortlisted into the second stage, with their governments and peoples rated by respondents as “very positive”, “quite positive”, “half-half”, “quite negative” or “very negative”. In our first stage survey conducted on May 22 to 28, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, France and Singapore were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Our second stage survey was conducted on May 29 to June 2. The following table summarizes the findings of Hong Kong people’s feeling towards the governments and peoples of the four cross-strait regions.

Date of survey		22-28/11/13	27-30/5/14	24-27/11/14	29/5-2/6/15
Sample base		1,030	1,018	1,009	1,038
Overall response rate		66.3%	66.1%	67.1%	66.5%
Feeling towards different governments / peoples ^{^[7]}		Finding	Finding	Finding	Base ^{^[8]}	Finding and error ^{^[9]}	Latest change^{^[10]}	Net difference with gov’ts / peoples
Hong Kong	People Positive	56%^[11]	51%	49%	*637*	41+/-4%	-8%^[11]	+39%
	People Negative	11%	9%	11%	*637*	10+/-2%	-1%
	Net value	45%^[11]	43%	38%	*637*	30+/-5%	-8%^[11]
	Government Positive	27%^[11]	25%	32%^[11]	*637*	27+/-4%	-5%^[11]	-39%
	Government Negative	40%^[11]	37%	37%	*637*	36+/-4%	-1%
	Net value	-13%	-12%	-5%	*637*	-8+/-6%	-3%
Mainland	People Positive	27%^[11]	28%	31%	*707*	28+/-3%	-3%	+8%
	People Negative	32%	24%^[11]	25%	*707*	21+/-3%	-4%^[11]
	Net value	-5%^[11]	4%^[11]	6%	*707*	7+/-5%	+1%
	Government Positive	28%^[11]	30%	29%	*707*	30+/-3%	+1%	-8%
	Government Negative	37%	33%	34%	*707*	31+/-3%	-3%
	Net value	-9%^[11]	-3%	-5%	*707*	-1+/-6%	+4%
Taiwan	People Positive	60%	63%^[11]	59%	*669*	62+/-4%	+3%	+37%
	People Negative	4%	3%	4%	*669*	3+/-1%	-1%
	Net value	56%	60%^[11]	55%	*669*	59+/-4%	+4%
	Government Positive	37%	32%	29%	*669*	33+/-4%	+4%	-37%
	Government Negative	15%^[11]	15%	16%	*669*	10+/-2%	-6%^[11]
	Net value	22%	17%	13%	*669*	23+/-5%	+10%^[11]
Macau	People Positive	57%^[11]	49%^[11]	51%	*653*	47+/-4%	-4%	+16%
	People Negative	3%^[11]	3%	2%	*653*	3+/-1%	+1%
	Net value	54%^[11]	46%^[11]	49%	*653*	44+/-4%	-5%^[11]
	Government Positive	52%^[11]	39%^[11]	45%^[11]	*653*	41+/-4%	-4%	-16%
	Government Negative	9%	17%^[11]	13%^[11]	*653*	13+/-3%	--
	Net value	43%	22%^[11]	32%^[11]	*653*	28+/-5%	-4%

[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[8] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Comparison made with survey findings of 24-27/11/14.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Herewith the findings of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards the governments and peoples of 12 regions and countries other than the four cross-strait regions. They are ranked according to the net values of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards their people, in descending order:

Date of survey		22-28/11/13	27-30/5/14	27-30/5/14	29/5-2/6/15
Sample base		1,030	1,018	1,009	1,038
Overall response rate		66.3%	66.1%	67.1%	66.5%
Feeling towards different governments / peoples ^{^[12]}		Finding	Finding	Finding	Base^{^[13]}	Finding and error^{^[14]}	Latest change^{^[15]}	Net difference with gov’ts / peoples
Singapore	People Positive	71%[16]	65%[16]	60%[16]	641	61+/-4%	+1%	+11%
	People Negative	2%	2%	2%	641	2+/-1%	--
	Net value	70%[16]	63%[16]	58%[16]	641	59+/-4%	+1%
	Government Positive	70%[16]	62%[16]	56%[16]	641	55+/-4%	-1%	-11%
	Government Negative	4%[16]	7%[16]	5%	641	7+/-2%	+2%
	Net value	66%[16]	55%[16]	50%	641	49+/-5%	-1%
Canada	People Positive	60%^[16]	56%	49%^[16]	622	51+/-4%	+2%	+3%
	People Negative	1%	1%	2%	622	1+/-1%	-1%
	Net value	59%^[16]	54%	47%^[16]	622	50+/-4%	+3%
	Government Positive	55%	52%	45%^[16]	622	48+/-4%	+3%	-3%
	Government Negative	2%	3%	3%	622	1+/-1%	-2%
	Net value	54%^[16]	50%	42%^[16]	622	47+/-4%	+5%^[16]
Japan	People Positive	49%^[16]	50%	53%	635	54+/-4%	+1%	+78%
	People Negative	15%	14%	10%^[16]	635	8+/-2%	-2%
	Net value	34%	36%	44%^[16]	635	47+/-5%	+3%
	Government Positive	12%	13%	15%	635	17+/-3%	+2%	-78%
	Government Negative	63%	57%^[16]	56%	635	48+/-4%	-8%^[16]
	Net value	-51%	-44%	-41%	635	-31+/-6%	+10%^[16]
Australia	People Positive	58%^[16]	50%^[16]	49%	660	44+/-4%	-5%^[16]	+7%
	People Negative	1%^[16]	2%	2%	660	3+/-1%	+1%
	Net value	57%^[16]	48%^[16]	46%	660	41+/-4%	-5%^[16]
	Government Positive	48%	42%	44%	660	39+/-4%	-5%^[16]	-7%
	Government Negative	3%	4%	2%	660	5+/-2%	+3%
	Net value	45%	38%	42%	660	35+/-4%	-7%^[16]
United Kingdom	People Positive	54%^[16]	49%	44%^[16]	592	42+/-4%	-2%	+13%
	People Negative	4%	4%	6%	592	4+/-2%	-2%
	Net value	49%^[16]	45%	38%^[16]	592	38+/-5%	--
	Government Positive	50%^[16]	45%^[16]	37%^[16]	592	36+/-4%	-1%	-13%
	Government Negative	10%	9%	19%^[16]	592	11+/-3%	-8%^[16]
	Net value	40%^[16]	35%	18%^[16]	592	25+/-5%	+7%^[16]
Germany	People Positive	43%	38%	45%^[16]	615	37+/-4%	-8%^[16]	+3%
	People Negative	3%	2%	1%	615	2+/-1%	+1%
	Net value	41%^[16]	35%	44%^[16]	615	35+/-4%	-9%^[16]
	Government Positive	42%^[16]	34%^[16]	39%^[16]	615	34+/-4%	-5%^[16]	-3%
	Government Negative	3%^[16]	4%	3%	615	2+/-1%	-1%
	Net value	39%^[16]	30%^[16]	36%^[16]	615	32+/-4%	-4%
South Korea	People Positive	52%^[16]	50%	52%	624	42+/-4%	-10%^[16]	+12%
	People Negative	7%	8%	6%	624	8+/-2%	+2%
	Net value	45%^[16]	43%	46%	624	34+/-5%	-12%^[16]
	Government Positive	47%^[16]	38%^[16]	46%^[16]	624	32+/-4%	-14%^[16]	-12%
	Government Negative	7%^[16]	13%^[16]	7%^[16]	624	10+/-2%	+3%
	Net value	39%^[16]	25%^[16]	39%^[16]	624	22+/-5%	-17%^[16]
USA	People Positive	47%^[16]	41%	40%	659	37+/-4%	-3%	+46%
	People Negative	11%	7%	9%	659	8+/-2%	-1%
	Net value	36%^[16]	34%	31%	659	29+/-5%	-2%
	Government Positive	24%	18%^[16]	21%	659	19+/-3%	-2%	-46%
	Government Negative	36%	39%	34%^[16]	659	36+/-4%	+2%
	Net value	-12%	-21%^[16]	-13%^[16]	659	-16+/-6%	-3%
Thailand	People Positive	38%	33%	38%^[16]	679	38+/-4%	--	+49%
	People Negative	12%	17%^[16]	11%^[16]	679	10+/-2%	-1%
	Net value	26%	17%^[16]	26%^[16]	679	28+/-5%	+2%
	Government Positive	20%	11%^[16]	16%^[16]	679	13+/-3%	-3%	-49%
	Government Negative	32%^[16]	52%^[16]	38%^[16]	679	35+/-4%	-3%
	Net value	-11%	-41%^[16]	-22%^[16]	679	-21+/-5%	+1%
France	People Positive	33%^[16]	35%	28%^[16]	672	29+/-3%	+1%	+12%
	People Negative	7%	5%	6%	672	4+/-2%	-2%
	Net value	26%^[16]	31%^[16]	23%^[16]	672	25+/-4%	+2%
	Government Positive	24%^[16]	24%	19%^[16]	672	18+/-3%	-1%	-12%
	Government Negative	9%	6%^[16]	6%	672	6+/-2%	--
	Net value	15%^[16]	17%^[16]	13%	672	12+/-4%	-1%
Italy	People Positive	30%	32%	30%	615	24+/-3%	-6%^[16]	+8%
	People Negative	6%	4%	5%	615	4+/-2%	-1%
	Net value	24%^[16]	28%^[16]	25%	615	20+/-4%	-5%^[16]
	Government Positive	20%	22%	19%	615	18+/-3%	-1%	-8%
	Government Negative	10%	8%	8%	615	5+/-2%	-3%
	Net value	9%	15%^[16]	12%	615	13+/-4%	+1%
Russia	People Positive	--	25%	26%	665	22+/-3%	-4%^[16]	+27%
	People Negative	--	9%	6%^[16]	665	5+/-2%	-1%
	Net value	--	16%	20%	665	17+/-4%	-3%
	Government Positive	--	20%	19%	665	16+/-3%	-3%	-27%
	Government Negative	--	28%	31%	665	25+/-3%	-6%^[16]
	Net value	--	-8%	-12%	665	-10+/-5%	+2%

[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[13] The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 ti mes getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Comparison made with survey findings of 24-27/11/14.
[16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Our latest findings showed that, as regards the results of people’s feeling towards different peoples, 41% felt positive towards Hong Kong people themselves while the net value is positive 30 percentage points. For the other cross-strait regions, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau peoples were 28%, 62% and 47% while their net values are positive 7, positive 59 and positive 44 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on peoples of other regions and countries, the net values for Singapore, Canada, Japan and Australia were highest, with positive 59, positive 50, positive 47 and positive 41 percentage points respectively, while those for the United Kingdom, Germany and South Korea, the United States, Thailand and France were positive 38, positive 35, positive 34, positive 29, positive 28 and positive 25 percentage points correspondingly. Lastly, the net value of feeling towards the people of Italy and Russia are positive 20 and positive 17 percentage points only.

Regarding the results of people’s feeling towards different governments, 27% felt positive towards the HKSAR government while the net value is negative 8 percentage points. For the other cross-strait governments, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau governments were 30%, 33% and 41% while their net values are negative 1, positive 23 and positive 28 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on other governments, the net values for Singapore and Canada were the highest, with positive 49 and positive 47 percentage points correspondingly, while those for Australia, Germany, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Italy and France were positive 35, positive 32, positive 25, positive 22, positive 13 and positive 12 percentage points correspondingly, those for Russia, the United States, Thailand and Japan were negative 10, negative 16, negative 21 and negative 31 percentage points correspondingly.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from November 24 to 27, 2014 while this survey was conducted from May 29 to June 2, 2015. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

29/5/15	18 people are quarantined after the South Korean man is confirmed to have contracted MERS.
22/4/15	Government announces the proposal for selecting the Chief Executive in 2017.
11/4/15	Multiple-entry permits are changed to allow only one trip per week.
23/3/15	The founding Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, passes away.
22/1/15	The European Central Bank implements quantitative easing.
28/12/14	An AirAsia flight from Indonesia to Singapore goes missing.
20/12/14	President Xi Jinping talks about “one country, two systems” in Macau.
13/12/14	77th anniversary of the Nanking Massacre.
29/11/14	The opposition pan-green alliance’s landslide victory in Taiwan’s local elections.
27/11/14	Media continues to report on Occupy Central.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey shows that in terms of net affinity Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards fellow Hong Kong people is 39 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR government, that towards Taiwan people is 37 percentage points higher than that towards the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 16 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government, that towards Mainland Chinese people is 8 percentage points higher than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. It should be noted that the net value of Hong Kong people’s affinity towards fellow Hong Kong people has dropped to its record low since this survey started in 2007, which is another indicator of society’s polarization. As for countries outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of Japan, Thailand, the United States and Russia whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. These findings are worth studying by various governments. As for reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our “Opinion Daily” feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design.

Future Releases (Tentative)

June 11, 2015 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of disciplinary forces
June 16, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials