HKU POP releases findings of the latest annual June Fourth surveyBack

1. The “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) run by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong continues to release the results of the “Joint-University Rolling Survey on 2017 Chief Executive Election Proposal” on a daily basis except weekends and holidays. According to the latest findings, for the survey conducted from May 25 to 29, 46% “supported” the government’s proposal on CE election of 2017, 35% “opposed” and 19% did not give a definite answer. For details please refer to the feature page at http://hkupop.pori.hk/english/features/jointUrollingSurvey. Please note that the data released to public has a time lag of four days. Moreover, due to sampling errors, when quoting the figures, journalists should refrain from reporting the decimal places of the percentage figures.


2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via POP Site the raw data of all 73 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
   

POP interviewed 1,089 Hong Kong people between 22 and 28 May by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. This is the 23rd anniversary survey on the June Fourth Incident conducted by POP, marking the 26th anniversary of June Fourth. From a broad perspective, Hong Kong people’s mainstream opinion still holds that the Chinese Government was wrong in 1989, people still support the Beijing students, and demand a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth. However, the percentages of those demanding reversion has dropped to 52%, roughly back to the level registered in 2008. Besides, the percentages of those who consider the human rights condition in China has improved since 1989 and those who think the condition will improve in the next three years have both increased significantly, back to the level of 2012. Hong Kong people continue to think that they have a responsibility to promote democratic and economic developments in China. Both in terms of absolute and relative measurements, democratic development takes priority over economic development. This probably reflects Hong Kong people’s wish on the future development of the Mainland. Compared to a year ago, the popularity rating of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China has dropped sharply to 44.6 marks, a record low since 1992. Although those who oppose the disbanding of the Alliance still outnumber those who want it disbanded, the margin has narrowed to 38% versus 26%. The Alliance appears to be facing an aging image problem. However, further analyses show that the younger the respondents, the more they blame the Chinese Government, the more they support the Beijing students, and the more they demand for a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth. This shows that the younger generation is still very sympathetic with the Beijing students back in 1989. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.8. The response rate of the survey is 65%.

POP today releases on schedule via the “HKU POP SITE” the findings of the latest annual June Fourth survey. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Figures of latest annual June Fourth survey are summarized as follows:

This year’s survey findings revealed that 49% of the respondents believed that the Beijing students did the right thing in 1989, while 17% believed that they did the wrong thing. Meanwhile, with regard to the way the Chinese Government handled the matter at that time, 14% regarded it as correct and 63% regarded it as wrong.

The findings also showed that 52% of the respondents supported a reversion of the official stand on the incident while 24% did not. Regarding the human rights condition in China, 61% of the respondents believed that China’s human rights condition has been improved since 1989, and 44% anticipated that China’s human rights condition will be improved after 3 years.

Moreover, 66% of the respondents believed that Hong Kong people had a responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China, whereas on the economic aspect, 62% believed that Hong Kong people had such a responsibility. When comparing democratic and economic development, 29% of the respondents believed Hong Kong people should put more effort on instigating economic development in China, while 37% of the respondents put more weight on the development of democracy. Furthermore, 28% believed that China should emphasize more on its economic development, while 41% believed that China should emphasize more on the development of democracy.

Latest figures regarding the HK Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (“the Alliance”) are as follows:

Lastly, regarding the Alliance, 26% of the respondents said the Alliance should be disbanded, 38% said no. The latest popularity rating of the Alliance was 44.6 marks.

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analyses of respondents views on the Beijing students and Chinese Government handling the June Fourth Incident and on a reversion of the official stand on the incident by respondents’ age:

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme observed, “This is the 23rd anniversary survey on the June Fourth Incident conducted by POP, marking the 26th anniversary of June Fourth. From a broad perspective, Hong Kong people’s mainstream opinion still holds that the Chinese Government was wrong in 1989, people still support the Beijing students, and demand a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth. However, the percentages of those demanding reversion has dropped to 52%, roughly back to the level registered in 2008. Besides, the percentages of those who consider the human rights condition in China has improved since 1989 and those who think the condition will improve in the next three years have both increased significantly, back to the level of 2012. Hong Kong people continue to think that they have a responsibility to promote democratic and economic developments in China. Both in terms of absolute and relative measurements, democratic development takes priority over economic development. This probably reflects Hong Kong people’s wish on the future development of the Mainland. Compared to a year ago, the popularity rating of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China has dropped sharply to 44.6 marks, a record low since 1992. Although those who oppose the disbanding of the Alliance still outnumber those who want it disbanded, the margin has narrowed to 38% versus 26%. The Alliance appears to be facing an aging image problem. However, further analyses show that the younger the respondents, the more they blame the Chinese Government, the more they support the Beijing students, and the more they demand for a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth. This shows that the younger generation is still very sympathetic with the Beijing students back in 1989.”

June Fourth is an important page in the contemporary history of China with a tremendous impact on both the development of Hong Kong and Mainland China. The June Fourth complex which deeply troubled Hong Kong people has dictated the results of many elections, as well as changed the course of Hong Kong’s return to the motherland. Therefore, HKUPOP began to study Hong Kong people’s opinions of June Fourth and human rights conditions in China since 1993. This is the 22nd anniversary survey in a row. We explained the development of this polling series in our press releases of May 31, 2007, June 3, 2008, May 27, 2009, June 1, 2010, June 2, 2011, May 31, 2012, May 30, 2013 and June 3, 2014. Today, we publish it again, so that readers can grasp such developments more comprehensively.

Starting from May 1993, we began this June Fourth survey. Ever since then, it is repeated once every year. The survey has asked respondents to rate the Alliance before June Fourth since 1992 and the wordings used in this question are, “Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate the Alliance?”. Other questions include “Do you think the Beijing students did the right thing in the June Fourth Incident?”, “Do you think the Chinese Government did the right thing in the June Fourth Incident?”, “Do you think the human rights condition in China will be better or even worse in three years’ time?”, “Compared to 1989, do you think China’s human rights condition has become better or worse?”, “Do you think Hong Kong people have a responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China?”, “Do you think Hong Kong people should put more effort on instigating development in China’s economy or democracy?”, “Which do you think China needs more economic or democratic development?” and “Do you think the Alliance should be disbanded?”

In 1996, we added a question to survey people’s opinion on whether Hong Kong people have a responsibility to instigate economic development in China while in 1997, we also included a question to see if people would support a reversion of the official stand on the June Fourth Incident.

Regarding sample size, from the beginning to May 1999, the sample size of the survey was set at slightly over 500. Then from May 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.

Our findings of previous surveys in May 1999 or before were published in our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established, the findings are released online, while all previous findings published in our POP Express have also uploaded on-line in various formats.

• June 9, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s feelings towards different governments and peoples