HKU POP releases ratings of top 10 political groups Back

Press Release on May 5, 2015

Special Announcements

The “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) run by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong started to release the results of the “Joint-University Rolling Survey on 2017 Chief Executive Election Proposal” yesterday, on a daily basis except weekends and holidays. According to the latest findings, for the survey conducted from April 27 to May 1, 48% “supported” the government’s proposal on CE election of 2017, 36% “opposed” and 16% did not give a definite answer. For details please refer to the feature page at http://hkupop.pori.hk/english/features/jointUrollingSurvey. Please note that the data released to public has a time lag of four days.

Moreover, to facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via POP Site the raw data of all 71 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on the rankings of the top 10 political groups from mid-April to early May 2015 by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey of “Top 10 Political Groups” shows that the popularity of practically all political groups have recovered after the Occupy Movement. All ratings, however, are still less than 50. In terms of support ratings, compared to six months ago, out of the 9 political groups which were also rated last time, the support ratings of 6 have gone up significantly. They are DAB, FTU, HKCTU, LP, Labour Party and DP. Compared to the last survey, 8 of the top 10 political groups in the last survey have managed to maintain their places in the “top 10”, while ADPL and Labour Party enter the list to replace HKFS and Scholarism. In terms of relative rankings, DAB tops the list again after November 2007. FTU remains at the second place, ADPL re-enters the list since February last year to rank 3rd, HKCTU goes up two positions to rank 4th, LP goes down two positions to rank 5th, while Labour Party re-enters the list to rank 6th. Civic Party goes down three positions to rank 7th. Meanwhile, DP, LSD and PP remain at the 8th to 10th positions. It should be noted, however, that our “Top 10 Political Groups” only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings of top ten political groups registered fall between +/-1.8 and +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 63%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey of top 10 political groups is 1,024 successful interviews, not 1,024 x 69.1% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is other 1,051 successful interviews, not 1,051 x 63.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings^{^[6]}
13-16/4/2015(First stage naming survey)	1,024	69.1%	+/-3%
27/4-3/5/2015 (Second stage rating survey)	1,051	63.0%	+/-2.7

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our “Top ten political groups” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from April 13 to 16. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP), Liberal Party (LP), Civic Party (CP) and League of Social Democrats (LSD) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted from April 27 to May 3, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:

Date of survey	17-20/2/2014	25-30/6/2014	20-23/10/2014	27/4-3/5/2015		Latest change
Sample base	538-647	552-609	576-678	556-616		--
Overall response rate	67.8%	67.1%	66.3%	63.0%		--
Finding / Recog rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^{^[7]}	Recog %	--
DAB	43.3{8}^[9]	46.2{7}^[9]	40.0{7}^[9]	49.0+/-2.7{1}	91.0%	+9.0^[9]
FTU	46.6{3}^[9]	50.8{2}^[9]	42.6{2}^[9]	48.2+/-2.1{2}	89.5%	+5.6^[9]
ADPL	48.5{2}	54.0 ^[8] ^[9]	--	47.4+/-2.0{3}	74.9%	--
HKCTU	48.7{1}	--	40.2{6}	45.5+/-2.3{4}	80.2%	+5.3^[9]
LP	45.9{5}	49.7{5}^[9]	41.8{3}^[9]	45.2+/-1.8{5}	87.1%	+3.4^[9]
Labour Party	46.4 ^[8]	50.0{4}^[9]	41.3^[8] ^[9]	44.4+/-2.3{6}	73.7%	+3.1^[9]
CP	45.2{6}	50.7{3}^[9]	41.3{4}^[9]	42.2+/-2.4{7}	83.7%	+0.9
DP	43.8{7}^[9]	48.5{6}^[9]	39.7{8}^[9]	42.1+/-2.2{8}	90.6%	+2.4^[9]
LSD	37.5{9}	42.3{9}^[9]	34.4{9}^[9] ^[10]	35.1+/-2.4{9}	86.9%	+0.7
PP	35.2{10}	41.3{10}^[9]	34.4{10}^[9] ^[10]	33.5+/-2.5{10}	87.4%	-0.9
NWS	49.8 ^[8]	55.9{1}^[9]	--	47.6+/-2.2	68.3%	--
NPP	46.2{4}	49.8 ^[8] ^[9]	41.5^[8] ^[9]	44.3+/-2.5	71.5%	+2.8^[9]
HKFS	--	--	47.7{1}	--	--	--
Scholarism	--	45.1{8}	41.0{5}^[9]	--	--	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[10] In three decimal places, the ratings of LSD and PP are 34.358 and 34.355 respectively. Therefore, LSD and PP ranked at 9th and 10th places respectively.

Findings obtained from late-April to early May showed that, the most popular political group was Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) which attained 49.0 marks. Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People’s Livelihood (ADPL), Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU), Liberal Party (LP), Labour Party, Civic Party (CP) and Democratic Party (DP) scored 48.2, 47.4, 45.5, 45.2, 44.4, 42.2 and 42.1 marks respectively and ranked 2nd to 8th. The 9th and 10th places went to League of Social Democrats (LSD) and People Power (PP), attaining 35.1 and 33.5 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 47.1 marks. For this latest survey, Neighbourhood and Worker’s Service Centre (NWS) and New People’s Party (NPP) obtained a support rating of 47.6 and 44.3 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	17-20/2/14	25-30/6/14	20-23/10/14	27/4-3/5/15	No. of times on top 10	Average rating ^{^[11]}	Overall ranking^{^[12]}
FTU	46.6	50.8	42.6	48.2	4	47.0	{1}
LP	45.9	49.7	41.8	45.2	4	45.7	{2}
CP	45.2	50.7	41.3	42.2	4	44.9	{3}
DAB	43.3	46.2	40.0	49.0	4	44.6	{4}
DP	43.8	48.5	39.7	42.1	4	43.5	{5}
LSD	37.5	42.3	34.4	35.1	4	37.3	{6}
PP	35.2	41.3	34.4	33.5	4	36.1	{7}
HKCTU	48.7	--	40.2	45.5	3	44.8	{8}
ADPL	48.5	--	--	47.4	2	48.0	{9}
Labour Party	--	50.0	--	44.4	2	47.2	{10}
Scholarism	--	45.1	41.0	--	2	43.0	{11}
NWS	--	55.9	--	--	1	55.9	{12}
HKFS	--	--	47.7	--	1	47.7	{13}
NPP	46.2	--	--	--	1	46.2	{14}

[11] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 12 months.
[12] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, seven political groups were listed for four times, FTU achieved an average rating of 47.0 and rank first. Meanwhile, the 2nd to 7th ranks fell to LP, CP, DAB, DP, LSD and PP, with respective average ratings of 45.7, 44.9, 44.6, 43.5, 37.3 and 36.1 marks. HKCTU was listed three times and ranked the 8th with an average rating of 44.8 marks. ADPL, Labour Party and Scholarism were listed twice with average ratings of 48.0 47.2 and 43.0 marks respectively, now ranked the 9th to 11th. Furthermore, NWS, HKFS and NPP were listed once with ratings of 55.9, 47.7 and 46.2 marks respectively, now ranking the 12th to 14th.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from October 20 to 23, 2014 while this survey was conducted from April 27 to May 3, 2015. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

28/4/15	Media continues to report on Hong Kong political reform.
22/4/15	Government announces the proposal for selecting the Chief Executive in 2017.
11/4/15	Multiple-entry permits are changed to allow only one trip per week.
3/4/15	25th anniversary of the promulgation of the Basic Law is coming up.
17/3/15	The Executive Council approved the building of the third airport runway.
14/2/15	Funding request for the Innovation and Technology Bureau is not passed.
14/1/15	CY Leung delivers the 2015 Policy Address.
7/1/15	Government starts the second consultation on political reform.
5/1/15	Police contacts Occupy Movement key figures to assist in investigation.
15/12/14	Media continues to report on Occupy Central.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey of ‘Top 10 Political Groups’ shows that the popularity of practically all political groups have recovered after the Occupy Movement. All ratings, however, are still less than 50. In terms of support ratings, compared to six months ago, out of the 9 political groups which were also rated last time, the support ratings of 6 have gone up significantly. They are DAB, FTU, HKCTU, LP, Labour Party and DP. Compared to the last survey, 8 of the top 10 political groups in the last survey have managed to maintain their places in the ‘top 10’, while ADPL and Labour Party enter the list to replace HKFS and Scholarism. In terms of relative rankings, DAB tops the list again after November 2007. FTU remains at the second place, ADPL re-enters the list since February last year to rank 3rd, HKCTU goes up two positions to rank 4th, LP goes down two positions to rank 5th, while Labour Party re-enters the list to rank 6th. Civic Party goes down three positions to rank 7th. Meanwhile, DP, LSD and PP remain at the 8th to 10th positions. It should be noted, however, that our ‘Top 10 Political Groups’ only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. As to what events have affected the ups and downs of the popularity of these groups, readers can make their own judgment after reading through detailed records placed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

May 12, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials