HKU POP releases the latest survey on Taiwan issuesBack

Press Release on March 17, 2015

Special Announcement

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, Public Opinion Programme (POP) at The University of Hong Kong has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 68 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, as well as the 181 regular rating surveys of former CE Donald Tsang and 239 regular rating surveys of former CE CH Tung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,024 Hong Kong people between 9 and 12 March, 2015 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people who oppose to the independence of Taiwan continue to outnumber those who support it, but the net opposition rate has dropped to a new low since June 1995, now at 20 percentage points, while people’s net support rate for Taiwan rejoining the UN stands at 16 percentage points. In other words, although Hong Kong people object to the independence of Taiwan, they tend to support giving Taiwan more international space. It should be noted that people’s net confidence in reunification across the strait has dropped to negative 31 percentage points, which is a new low since June 1993, while the net value of those who believe “one country, two systems” is applicable to Taiwan plunges to negative 28 percentage points, which is a new low since November 1996. Further analysis shows that younger people are more supportive of Taiwan’s independence and more pessimistic about cross-strait reunification. According to these figures, the stronger the attack on separatism waged by the central and local governments, the more sympathetic Hong Kong people feel for the Taiwan people. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 69%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,024 successful interviews, not 1,024 x 68.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7%”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest findings on various Taiwan issues. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
9-12/3/2015	1,024	68.6%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Latest people’s views towards various Taiwan issues are summarized below:

Date of survey^[7]	5-14/3/13	8-15/8/13	10-12/3/14	7-13/8/14	9-12/3/15	Latest Change
Total sample size^[7]	1,006	1,025	1,008	1,014	1,024	--
Overall response rate	68.8%	67.7%	68.4%	67.6%	68.6%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[8]	--
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate	60%	61%	58%	52%^[9]	53+/-4%	+1%
Taiwan independence: Support rate	25%	26%	29%	31%	33+/-4%	+2%
Net opposition	35%	35%	29%	21%^[9]	20+/-7%	-1%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate	48%^[9]	52%	44%^[9]	47%	49+/-4%	+2%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate	29%	29%	35%^[9]	30%^[9]	34+/-4%	+4%
Net support	19%^[9]	23%	9%^[9]	17%^[9]	16+/-7%	-1%
Believed ‘one country, two systems’ was applicable to Taiwan	39%	41%	42%	32%^[9]	30+/-4%	-2%
Believed ‘one country, two systems’ was not applicable to Taiwan	44%	44%	43%	50%^[9]	58+/-4%	+8%^[9]
Net value of applicability	-5%	-3%	0%	-18%^[9]	-28+/-7%	-10%^[9]
Confidence in cross-strait reunification	37%	37%	37%	32%^[9]	29+/-4%	-3%
No confidence in cross-strait reunification	46%	52%^[9]	49%	55%^[9]	59+/-4%	+4%
Net confidence	-9%	-15%	-12%	-23%^[9]	-31+/-7%	-8%^[9]

[7] Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 595 to 648, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated. Since 2012, the frequency of surveys has reduced from once every 3 months to half-yearly.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7%” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 53% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas 33% showed support, with net opposition at positive 20 percentage points. Besides, 49% supported the rejoining the United Nations of Taiwan while 34% opposed, with net support at positive 16 percentage points. As for the applicability of “one country, two systems” to Taiwan, 30% gave a positive view while 58% gave a negative answer, with net value of applicability at negative 28 percentage points. Finally, 29% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 59% expressed no confidence, with net confidence at negative 31 percentage points.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ view on the Taiwan independence issue and confidence in cross-strait reunification by age:

Date of survey: 9-12/3/2015		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
View on the Taiwan independence issue^[10]	Oppose	35+/-9% (37)	47+/-6% (110)	65+/-6% (184)	53+/-4% (331)
	Support	51+/-10% (54)	40+/-6% (94)	21+/-5% (58)	33+/-4% (207)
	Don’t know / hard to say	15+/-7% (16)	13+/-4% (32)	14+/-4% (39)	14+/-3% (87)
	Total	100% (107)	100% (236)	100% (282)	100% (625)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 9-12/3/2015		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Confidence in cross-strait reunification^[11]	Yes	17+/-7% (20)	20+/-5% (47)	42+/-6% (119)	29+/-4% (187)
	No	77+/-8% (93)	72+/-6% (170)	41+/-6% (117)	59+/-4% (380)
	Don’t know / hard to say	6+/-4% (8)	8+/-4% (20)	17+/-4% (47)	12+/-3% (74)
	Total	100% (121)	100% (237)	100% (284)	100% (641)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from August 7 to 13, 2014 while this survey was conducted from March 9 to 12, 2015. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

6/3/15	Zhang Dejiang makes a statement about Hong Kong independence.
4/2/15	Taiwan plane crashes.
14/12/14	Beijing official, Zhang Rong-shun says Hong Kong is in need of “enlightenment” on the “One Country, Two Systems” principle.
29/11/14	The opposition pan-green alliance’s landslide victory in Taiwan’s local elections.
27/9/14	Occupy Central starts earlier than said.
21/9/14	Students start a 5 day long boycott of classes.
19/9/14	Democracy wins the Scottish independence referendum.
14/9/14	Media continues to report Taiwan’s gutter oil scandal.
5/9/14	Taiwan’s tainted oil was sold to the market.
31/8/14	The National People’s Congress Standing Committee approves electing Hong Kong’s chief executive in 2017's proposal by vote.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people who oppose to the independence of Taiwan continue to outnumber those who support it, but the net opposition rate has dropped to a new low since June 1995, now at 20 percentage points, while people’s net support rate for Taiwan rejoining the UN stands at 16 percentage points. In other words, although Hong Kong people object to the independence of Taiwan, they tend to support giving Taiwan more international space. It should be noted that people’s net confidence in reunification across the strait has dropped to negative 31 percentage points, which is a new low since June 1993, while the net value of those who believe ‘one country, two systems’ is applicable to Taiwan plunges to negative 28 percentage points, which is a new low since November 1996. Further analysis shows that younger people are more supportive of Taiwan’s independence and more pessimistic about cross-strait reunification. According to these figures, the stronger the attack on separatism waged by the central and local governments, the more sympathetic Hong Kong people feel for the Taiwan people. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

March 19, 2015 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 5 Executive Councillors
March 24, 2015 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Trust and confidence indicators